Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said in a report that global chip-related stocks are under pressure due to concerns about supply and demand conditio

Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said in a report that global chip-related stocks are under pressure due to concerns about supply and demand conditions in the storage market and profit-taking in leveraged ETFs. In the short term, stock prices are driven by supply and demand and investor sentiment. But chip manufacturing companies still have upside momentum from artificial intelligence-related earnings growth and expanding free cash flow, and the upward trend in chip stocks is expected to continue in the medium term.

On July 2 (Thursday) Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed gains and losses. S&P 500 (SPX) The index rose 0.00% to 7483.24 points; the Dow Jones Index rose 1.14% to 52900.07 points; Nasdaq (NDAQ) The index fell 0.80% to 25832.67 points. On July 2, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.49%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate, was 4.14%. NVIDIA (NVDA) Apple (AAPL) Google A (GOOGL) Google C (GOOG) Microsoft (MSFT) Amazon (AMZN) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Meta(META) Tesla (TSLA) AMD Intel (INTC) French cac40 (FCHI) UK FTSE 100 (FTSE) 10652.87 German dax (GDAXI) 25580.88 Russian rts (RTS) On July 2, overnight Hang Seng Technology Index futures fell 0.16%. China's Golden Dragon Index fell 1.77%, and the FTSE China A50 Index fell 3.11%. In terms of popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK0700) (Hong Kong stocks) rose 0.09%, Alibaba (BABA) Pinduoduo (PDD) NetEase (NTES) Baidu (BIDU) Ctrip (TCOM) Li Auto (LI) USD/CNY (off) +1460 bp $60.59/oz US$4113.20/oz US$68.04/barrel US$71.19/barrel 13249.24 US dollars/ton U.S. President Trump says he will begin the process of "removing" Fed Governor Cook from the Fed U.S. President Trump said that he will begin the process of "removing" Federal Reserve Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve. (Financial Associated Press) Cap employee spending on AI tools at $200 per week Set a cap of $200 per week for employee use of AI tools. (Financial Associated Press) Platforms said that in the past four months, AI agent (886099) development has not "accelerated as we expected" development has not "accelerated as we expected." (Financial Associated Press) : Launched the long wheelbase version of Model Y, now available in the United States and Puerto Rico : Launched the long wheelbase version of Model Y, now available in the United States and Puerto Rico. (Sina Finance) plans to merge its Consumption (883434) Copilot chatbot for developers and enterprises Copilot chatbot for developers and enterprises. (Financial Associated Press) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) ’s cloud plans may indicate that its AI progress is slow Decided to launch cloud infrastructure business, 1 GW of computing power may be Bringing in annual revenue of approximately $20 billion and earnings per share of several dollars. It was previously reported that This move is being considered. But ’s analysts also believe this shows the company’s lack of progress in its proprietary AI work. "We would rather Develop core AI products, leverage its 4 billion user base and provide large-scale computing power for its own inference needs rather than selling access to its infrastructure," analysts said in a report. "It still shows us that The Trump administration and Anthropic have not discussed a U.S. government stake in the company, people familiar with the matter reported. People familiar with the matter reported that the Trump administration and Anthropic have not discussed the U.S. government taking a stake in the company. (Financial Associated Press) A new app is being launched, focusing on small photos with atmospheric theme tags Games (881275) Social feed. (Financial Associated Press) : Model 3/Y production volume in the second quarter was 442,936 units, and delivery volume was 467,762 units.

: Model 3/Y production volume in the second quarter was 442,936 units, and delivery volume was 467,762 units. Total deliveries in the second quarter were 480,126 vehicles, higher than market estimates of 402,776 vehicles. Total production in the second quarter was 451,758 units. Traders fully price in Fed rate hike in December, following October Traders are fully pricing in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, following October.

Technology launched the expansion of its Hiroshima factory in Japan on Saturday to further increase the production capacity of advanced memory chips to meet the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power hardware. The investment in the expansion project reached 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 9.3 billion U.S. dollars), and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry provided subsidy support of no more than 500 billion yen for the project. The factory will produce high-bandwidth memory and other chips that are urgently needed for AI infrastructure. Delivery and installation of the manufacturing equipment is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2028. Memory chip companies are racing to expand production capacity around the world. Micron is building two advanced wafer fabs in Boise. In January this year, it held a groundbreaking ceremony for a US$100 billion production base in New York State to increase domestic DRAM production in the United States. South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are also actively expanding production capacity.

Warning to the "AI carnival"! "The Big Short" Berry quoted the classic line: The end is coming

The strong performance of U.S. stocks last quarter has Wall Street optimistic about further gains in the second half of the year. As background, in the second quarter of this year, the S&P rose by 14.87% and the Nasdaq rose by 21.41%. The last time these two indexes recorded such performance was six years ago (i.e., in the second quarter of 2020); the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 12.9%, the largest increase in 14 quarters. In the first half of this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.85%, its best first half performance since 2021. The S&P rose 9.55% and the Nasdaq rose 12.79%. The Russell 2000 Index also performed well, with an increase of 21.86%, its best performance since 1991. "I think there are far more things to be excited about than there are things to worry about," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird. He pointed to lower oil and gasoline prices after the U.S. and Iran stopped fighting, as well as the resilience of the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 as a boost to the economy. "A lot of factors are at play. This is a bull market driven by earnings and liquidity, and those factors can allow the bull market to continue into the second half of this year and, in my opinion, probably into 2027," he added. Wall Street strategists remain generally optimistic about the U.S. stock market for the remainder of 2026, according to a summary report from investment advisory firm Yardeni Research. According to FactSet data, industry analysts on average predict that the S&P 500 Index will rise 21% in the next 12 months. Among the companies it tracks, Yardeni Research itself is the most bullish on the S&P 500, with a year-end price target of 8,250. That represents about 10% upside from the index's recent level near 7,483. Oppenheimer and Citigroup are the next two most optimistic institutions, both predicting the benchmark index will reach 8,100 points by the end of the year, followed by 22V Research, with a target price of 8,060 points. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all have year-end targets of 8,000. JPMorgan analysts recently raised their year-end forecast to 7,800. The average price target given by the companies surveyed is 7,716, which implies about 3% upside from current levels. Of course, there are also more cautious institutions on Wall Street. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company has the lowest target price of 7,000 points, which means that the S&P 500 Index will fall by about 6% by the end of the year. Bank of America's forecast is more conservative at 7,100 points, while Societe Generale and Wells Fargo both predict that the S&P 500 will close at 7,300 points by the end of the year. UBS gave an "almost flat price target" of 7,500 points. Overall, Yardeni Research reports that the forecast distribution suggests that strategists still expect the broader market to rise before the end of the year, although the consensus is that the gains will be more modest than the previous strong advance that propelled the S&P 500 to a record high in 2026. Dan Ives, senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, said: “As the earnings season begins in July, we must pay attention to the verification and monetization of artificial intelligence.” Despite the upbeat sentiment, strategists are warning against rushing into memory and chipmakers whose shares have soared in recent months after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) posted its best quarter ever. "I would be cautious, you know...parabolic charts rarely correct sideways," Mayfield said. Concerns over lavish spending by some big tech companies have also raised questions about some of the "Big Seven" companies, which have historically been known for their strong free cash flow generation. Ed Yardeni, a Wall Street veteran and founder of Yardeni Research, noted that investors are “questioning whether hyperscale data center operators’ huge investments in AI infrastructure will ultimately pay off.” This iconic group of stocks has been underperforming compared to the booming semiconductor industry.

“We are in the middle stages of artificial intelligence trading,” Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Charles Schwab Asset Management, said last week. He emphasized the need to diversify investments and reduce overweighting of large-cap stocks. He added: "We are very fond of areas such as industrials, healthcare, materials, etc., which are just starting to truly leverage AI architecture. Investment opportunities also exist in small and mid-cap companies as well as international equities." (

There has been a major shift in funds in the U.S. stock market. According to the latest data from Bank of America, U.S. stock funds are experiencing the fastest withdrawal of funds this year. As of the week of July 1, capital outflows from U.S. stock funds reached US$17.2 billion (approximately RMB 120 billion). This is the second consecutive week that U.S. stock funds have recorded net outflows, marking a clear reversal of the strong capital inflows since the beginning of 2026. At the same time, the latest actions of Wall Street’s “big short” Michael Burry have also attracted market attention. On July 2, local time, he said that he had shorted Micron Technology's stock at a price of US$1,051.87 per share, and warned that the U.S. semiconductor sector may face a correction of about 30%, and that the valuations of AI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure-related companies are already seriously high. In terms of stock price performance, Micron Technology's stock price fell 10.6% and 5.5% respectively on Wednesday and Thursday, closing at $975.56 per share. According to the latest report released by Bank of America, as of the week of July 1, capital outflows from U.S. stock funds reached US$17.2 billion, setting a record for the largest single-week net redemption since March 2026. While funds are withdrawing from the U.S. stock market, investors are turning their attention to investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds. The report shows that investment-grade bonds attracted US$17.2 billion in inflows that week, recording net inflows for 13 consecutive weeks; high-yield bonds attracted US$3.4 billion, the largest weekly inflow since May 2025. From an internal perspective in the stock market, funds continue to concentrate in the technology sector. Technology funds have inflowed US$14.3 billion that week, and the cumulative inflow from the beginning of 2026 is expected to hit a historical record of US$152 billion. From a global market perspective, against the background of capital outflows from U.S. stocks, some funds flowed to overseas markets. Japanese stock funds attracted US$1.9 billion that week, the largest weekly inflow in the past seven weeks. Global stocks had an overall net outflow of US$13.9 billion that week, of which mutual funds had net redemptions of US$18.8 billion and ETFs had a net inflow of US$5.2 billion. The bond market continued to attract gold, with an overall inflow of US$29.1 billion, and bond funds had a net inflow for 62 consecutive weeks. Money market funds attracted $55 billion for the week. It is worth noting that in the past two trading days, the semiconductor sector of the US stock market has fallen sharply, with a cumulative decline of more than 11%. Doubts about the high valuation of "AI trading" continue to spread in the US stock market. JP Morgan strategists pointed out that the extreme overperformance of U.S. semiconductor stocks relative to AI hyperscale cloud computing companies has created an unsustainable valuation gap, which is expected to eventually narrow. From a quarterly perspective, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by as much as 88% in the second quarter of this year, South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 64%, the biotechnology sector rose by 24%, small-cap stocks rose by 21%, bank stocks rose by 17%, and AI-related assets led the world. The “Big Short” takes action: short Micron While funds were withdrawing from the U.S. stock market on a large scale, Wall Street's "big short" Michael Burry took action and announced a short position against the U.S. memory chip giant Micron Technology. On July 2, local time, Michael Burry said that he shorted Micron Technology’s stock at a price of $1,051.87 per share. He also said he shorted Micron Technology outright because "the puts looked overpriced." Michael Burry is the prototype of the protagonist in the movie "The Big Short" and accurately predicted the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. He pointed out that Micron Technology's rally has reached historical extreme levels, and the company's valuation, technical form, and long-term industry cycle patterns all point to significant downside risks to its stock price. Michael Burry said in the post: "Micron Technology has clearly explained cyclicality. In the past 42 years, the stock has experienced 34 major retracements of more than 30%. The current deviation of the stock from its 200-day moving average is the highest level since 1984, and this has not happened even at the peak of the Internet bubble." He also criticized Micron Technology's long-term profitability, saying that with a median return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4% and a median return on equity (ROE) of 7%, those metrics are "frankly terrible."

Michael Burry said that the Korean semiconductor capital expenditure plans recently announced by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the "beginning of the boom to decline" of the semiconductor industry's business cycle. He expects the semiconductor sector to face a correction of about 30%, and believes that the valuations of AI infrastructure-related companies are already seriously overpriced. When Michael Burry took action to short Micron Technology, the U.S. semiconductor sector was experiencing a violent sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 12% in two days. Micron Technology's stock price fell 10.6% on Wednesday and continued to fall 5.5% on Thursday. In addition, in a post published on June 30, Michael Burry also disclosed short positions on NVIDIA, Applied Materials and iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), and said that AI-related chip stocks will face a 30% correction. (

This week, two key events that will determine the recent fate of the two pillars of the Korean stock market - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - are about to be revealed: Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday (July 7), and SK Hynix will list American depositary receipts (ADRs) on Nasdaq this Friday (July 10), only three days apart. In recent times, the Korean stock market has been fluctuating like a roller coaster, with intraday fluctuations often as high as about 10%. These two major events, especially Samsung Electronics' preliminary financial report, will not only determine the future direction of Korean stocks, but may also have an impact on the trend of global memory stocks. Samsung on track to hit record profit Wall Street currently generally expects Samsung Electronics' preliminary second-quarter profit to hit a record high. According to analyst consensus forecasts compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Samsung Electronics' second-quarter revenue is expected to be around 170 trillion won (approximately US$111.2 billion), with operating profit of approximately 86 trillion won (approximately US$56.2 billion). Some brokerages even predict as high as 90 trillion won (approximately US$58.9 billion). This means that its second-quarter operating profit will not only easily exceed the 57 trillion won (approximately US$37.3 billion) in the first quarter, but will also surge 17 times from the 4.7 trillion won in the same period last year, marking Samsung's third consecutive quarter of record operating profits. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, predicts that Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit is expected to increase 18 times year-on-year to 90 trillion won, with operating profit margins as high as 51%. He added: "Since the customer memory demand satisfaction rate in June is only about 50%, and the month-on-month price increase of DRAM and NAND flash memory may reach 60% respectively, the supply shortage problem is getting increasingly serious." Citigroup said last week that the average selling prices of DRAM and NAND in the second quarter increased by 44% and 53% respectively from the previous quarter. Such persistent memory shortages have driven up the sharp rise in the stock prices of memory chip manufacturers. The stock prices of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron have soared by 158%, 273% and 242% respectively this year, pushing the market value of these three companies to more than 1 trillion US dollars. Nomura Securities stated in the report that, supported by increased demand for consumer-grade storage products and traditional and artificial intelligence data center chips, it is expected that in the third quarter (July to September), commodity-grade DRAM prices will continue to rise by 24% month-on-month, and NAND prices will rise by 25%. Labor negotiations in May may affect Q2 profits Considering that the one-time payment of performance bonuses for the semiconductor (DS) division (up to 10 trillion won) reached by Samsung during labor negotiations in May will be included in the second quarter, some analysts believe that if this payment is not included, Samsung's operating profit will even exceed 100 trillion won (approximately US$65.4 billion) for the first time. However, some analysts warned that if Samsung's employee bonus reserves in the second quarter are higher than expected, second-quarter profits may be lower than consensus expectations. In late May, Samsung avoided a major strike and reached a wage agreement that would use 10.5% of the semiconductor unit's operating profits to pay special bonuses to chip unit employees. Some analysts estimate that Samsung's accumulated bonus provisions may even exceed 40 trillion won, so this will become a key factor affecting second-quarter earnings. Will greater risks come? But for investors in global memory stocks, the more critical question now is whether these "good profits" can be directly converted into stock price increases - this may also depend largely on the future spending expectations of major technology giants. Although it is generally recognized by the market that the profitability of chip companies has improved due to the explosive growth in chip demand, however, major technology companies around the world are now hindering this trend. JPMorgan Chase said in a recent report that although investors generally believe that memory supply and demand fundamentals remain tight, many question whether the rapid increase in the proportion of memory chips in cloud service providers' capital expenditures (estimated at 52% this year and expected to exceed 70% next year) is sustainable.

Apple is a classic example. As memory prices soared, Apple raised prices across its entire line of products, including Macs and iPads, on June 25. This news once raised serious questions about the elasticity of demand and the durability of memory chip profit margins, causing chip stocks including SK Hynix and Samsung to plummet. JPMorgan Chase said investors are seeking clearer evidence that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence services will translate into faster growth in cloud computing and related artificial intelligence revenue, helping to justify memory's expanding share of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. On the other hand, if Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix can expand their customer base beyond the very large technology companies known as the "Big Seven", market demand may be stronger. For example, the potential cooperation between Samsung and Anthropic is also a typical example. On July 2, foreign media reported that Anthropic, the developer of the artificial intelligence model "Claude", was negotiating cooperation with Samsung Electronics' chip foundry business unit to jointly produce its artificial intelligence chips. The next day, Samsung Electronics' stock price soared 8.22%, while SK Hynix's stock price rose 10.88%. (

Last week, as the annual "European version of the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" was grandly held in the Portuguese resort of Sintra, the trend of global macro policies once again attracted the attention of major markets. In this regard, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist Seth B. Carpenter published the latest research report after attending the European Central Bank's Sintra Annual Meeting, conducting an in-depth analysis of the subsequent policy paths of the two major European and American central banks. Carpenter pointed out that although there has been much discussion recently about central bank independence, in Sintra, oil shocks, inflation and monetary policy responses clearly occupy a more central position. Of course, artificial intelligence is an unavoidable topic in any economic forum today. At the venue, people from all walks of life repeatedly compared the two major European and American economies, as well as the policy paths of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Regarding the trends of European and American central banks that the market is most concerned about, Morgan Stanley currently predicts that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again in September, while the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates this year... ECB expected to raise interest rates in September Carpenter wrote that rising inflation prompted the European Central Bank to announce a rate hike at its June policy meeting. At the Sintra Forum, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated that this interest rate hike is a proactive control measure and not a purely preventive interest rate increase. Combined with this statement, Morgan Stanley judged that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again, which is also the core view of its benchmark forecast. Many guests at the Sintra annual meeting said that this round of rising inflation had already shown internal pressure before the impact of oil prices. At the same time, one or two discussions raised the question of whether the neutral interest rate has risen. Carpenter believes that another basis for supporting the European Central Bank to continue to raise interest rates is that ECB officials are still concerned about the history of delayed interest rate hikes in 2022 and slow policy response. However, comparing the euro area to the United States is ironic given that inflation has returned to the ECB's target and policy rates have returned to neutral - a stark contrast to the situation in the United States. The current market debate focuses on three issues: whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again, the timing of the increase, and the extent of the increase. Morgan Stanley predicts that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September - and believes that this judgment is still the optimal baseline scenario. Of course, the weakening euro zone inflation data released last week and the sharp drop in oil prices also leave room for policy flexibility. If inflation continues to cool or the PMI weakens significantly, the European Central Bank may give up on a new round of interest rate hikes. From the current point of view, the possibility of an immediate interest rate hike in July and multiple interest rate hikes during the year can be basically ruled out. Morgan Stanley also judged that this year's interest rate hike will be reversed next year, but if the market forms a general consensus that the neutral interest rate center will rise, the bank's prediction will be revised accordingly. Fed not expected to raise interest rates this year Regarding the Federal Reserve, Carpenter pointed out that the core topic of the discussion about the Federal Reserve at the Sintra annual meeting was Kevin Warsh taking over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh's speech at the policy symposium continued the tone released at his first press conference: firmly anchoring the price stability goal, but did not clearly provide a specific policy path to achieve this goal. However, Carpenter believes that there are two new changes in Wash’s speech that deserve attention: First, Warsh’s explanation of the Fed’s dual mission is more balanced. Previously, he focused almost exclusively on curbing inflation, but this time he clearly acknowledged that full employment is also the core goal of the policy. Second, and more crucially, Warsh pointed out that the Fed's June interest rate meeting (combined with the fall in oil prices) depressed market-based measures of inflation expectations and term premiums. In addition, he mentioned that the Federal Reserve has established multiple special working groups, but relevant research and judgment will take time to be implemented. Based on the above information, Morgan Stanley believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July is extremely low. Although economic data may change the policy path at any time, the non-farm payrolls data released last week (significantly lower than expected) still leaves room for the Fed to wait and see. Carpenter pointed out, “Coupled with the fact that our inflation forecast is far lower than the FOMC’s midpoint expectation, and the PCE inflation statistical caliber adjustment may significantly lower the inflation reading, we maintain our original judgment: the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in 2026.” Macroscopic reflection on the AI wave

In the latest global macro outlook, Morgan Stanley also reflected on the impact of the current hot artificial intelligence on monetary policy. Carpenter pointed out that the development of artificial intelligence has also caused divisions between Europe and the United States: the capital expenditure expansion of American companies came earlier, was stronger, and was larger in scale. In the short term, artificial intelligence will slightly push up inflation, but the bank believes that phenomena such as chip price increases will not fundamentally change the main macro judgment. In addition, Carpenter mentioned that there are many opinions in the market that artificial intelligence will bring about a slowdown in inflation and force the central bank to cut interest rates. This logic also needs to be re-examined and should even be rejected for three reasons: The stage of the economic cycle is the core variable that determines the direction of interest rates; The inflationary slowing effect of AI is just one of many impacts. Improved production efficiency will simultaneously drive consumption and investment, stimulating aggregate demand; The continued rise in production efficiency will push up the equilibrium real interest rate (referred to as r* by economists), further weakening the logic of interest rate cuts. Carpenter concluded that the view that simply equates AI to a reason for long-term interest rate cuts is basically untenable. (

SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index before the U.S. stock market opens on July 7. It only took 15 days from its landing on the Nasdaq on June 12 to its inclusion in the core technology index, setting a record for the fastest inclusion since the inception of the Nasdaq 100 Index. JPMorgan Chase’s calculations show that the Nasdaq 100 alone will attract about $4.3 billion in passive funds to force the purchase of SpaceX shares. If the effect of simultaneous inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE Russell global index systems is included, the total scale of forced purchases of SpaceX by global passive funds within 15 trading days can reach approximately US$35 billion. Under normal procedures, a newly listed company needs one or two quarters of transaction data accumulation and stable market capitalization performance before it can be included in a major index. SpaceX was able to be quickly included in the 100 Index this time, thanks to the index rule adjustments implemented by Nasdaq on May 1 this year. According to the new regulations, super-large new stocks that rank among the top 40 in the index by market capitalization can apply for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index after 15 trading days of listing, replacing the previous requirement of at least a three-month waiting period. At the same time, Nasdaq has also adjusted a number of access standards, including canceling the 10% minimum tradable share ratio requirement, consolidating the market value of different types of shares, and updating total equity data on a quarterly basis. The market generally believes that this series of rule adjustments are largely tailored to attract SpaceX. As a benchmark for global technology stocks, the Nasdaq 100 Index tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, covering multiple high-growth tracks such as software, semiconductors, Internet, consumer electronics, and new energy. Different from the S&P 500, this index adopts a purely rules-based screening mechanism. There is no committee voting link for component stock adjustment. It uses market value ranking as the core basis. It conducts annual reconstruction in December every year and performs weight rebalancing every quarter. As of the end of 2025, the global assets of exchange-traded products tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index will exceed US$640 billion. If all categories such as mutual funds, derivatives and structured products are included, the total scale of related funds will exceed US$800 billion. SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq on June 12 with an issue price of US$135 per share, stock code SPCX, raising US$75 billion in basic issuance, plus green shoe over-allotment, with a total raised of approximately US$86.25 billion, and net raised approximately US$85.7 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco in one fell swoop and setting a record for the highest fundraising in global IPO history. On the first day of listing, SpaceX's stock price jumped above US$150 at the opening, and finally closed at US$160.95, an increase of 19.22% from the issue price. The closing market value on the first day exceeded US$2.1 trillion. On the first day of its listing, SpaceX surpassed Broadcom and Tesla and became the sixth-largest market value among US listed companies. Musk's personal net worth subsequently exceeded US$1 trillion, making him the first "trillionaire" in human history. Buying orders continued to pour in over the next three trading days. On June 16, the stock price hit an all-time high of US$225.64, corresponding to a market value of approximately US$2.66 trillion. It briefly surpassed Amazon and ranked among the top five listed companies in the world in terms of market value. SpaceX share price performance However, SpaceX's stock price has entered a correction channel since June 17. On June 22, it plummeted by more than 16% in a single day, closing at US$154.6, and its market value evaporated by approximately US$400 billion in a single day. As of the close of trading on July 2, Eastern Time, SpaceX's stock price was around US$162, with a total market value of approximately US$2.13 trillion, which is still significantly higher than the US$1.77 trillion valuation corresponding to the issue price. Data disclosed in the prospectus show that in 2025, SpaceX's revenue will be US$18.674 billion, a significant year-on-year increase, but its net loss will be US$4.937 billion; in the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue will be US$4.694 billion, with a net loss of US$4.276 billion. From the perspective of financial performance, SpaceX does not meet the profit entry threshold of the S&P 500 Index, and S&P also stated that it will not be included in the benchmark index in the short term.

SpaceX positioned space AI computing power as the next growth engine in its prospectus, and plans to begin deploying AI computing satellites equipped with GPUs and powered by solar energy as early as 2028. These satellites will operate in sun-synchronous orbits and utilize the continuous illumination and radiation heat dissipation of the space environment to perform AI inference tasks. SpaceX's long-term goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of computing power into space every year. Regarding the investment value of SpaceX, Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said: "It is obvious that there is great demand, which is why they are quickly advancing the inclusion of the index." But he also pointed out that some fund managers are cautious about the stock, "We think the stock is overvalued." (

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said on Monday that how long the impact of the Iran conflict on the oil market will last will determine how much of a hit it will have on U.S. economic growth and how much inflationary pressure it will bring, making the Federal Reserve's decision-making more difficult. Yellen said at a video conference in Long Beach, California, that day: "I think the recent situation in Iran has made the Fed more inclined to stay on hold, and they will be more cautious about cutting interest rates than before the incident." Yellen pointed out that U.S. inflation is still about one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. She said Trump's tariff policies contributed about half a percentage point to the current 3% inflation rate. Before the escalation of the situation in Iran, the Fed had basically believed that the weakness in the labor market had been alleviated to some extent, and policymakers were waiting for inflation to fall further. "But now there is an Iran shock and oil prices have risen sharply - how the situation will develop in the next few days is still unknown." Yellen said that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for more than a few days, oil prices may remain high or rise further. The settlement price of international crude oil futures closed sharply up by more than 6% on Monday. The April WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 6.28% at US$71.23/barrel; the April Brent crude oil futures contract closed up 6.68% at US$77.74/barrel. Rising oil prices have added a new twist to a range of recent indicators, with spikes in energy costs historically signaling a rise in broader inflation. Yellen emphasized that when inflation has not yet fallen back to 2%, the Fed must be wary of market participants' perception: "They may start to think that inflation has indeed dropped from highs to 3%, but the Fed does not seem to be truly committed to pushing inflation back to 2%." She said that if such psychological expectations are formed, the market will worry that inflation will remain at a higher level for a long time, thereby exacerbating the difficulty of policy trade-offs. Therefore, the Fed may be more inclined to keep interest rates unchanged. Despite serious risks, including a conflict with Iran, Yellen concluded: "Overall, I think the U.S. economy is quite healthy right now, and I am relatively optimistic about the economic outlook." In addition, beyond the energy market, there are signs that inflationary pressures may be solidifying. The U.S. core producer price index (PPI) rose 0.8% month-on-month in January, exceeding expectations. Most economists say the impact of rising oil prices is difficult to estimate and may ultimately prove temporary, as has been the case in past conflicts in the Middle East. "Given the early stages of the conflict, it is unclear whether the price increases will be sustainable in the medium term," said Ravikanth Rai, deputy managing director of energy and natural resources at Morningstar. "It is difficult to tell whether there will be structural impacts on oil and gas supplies in the region." The market has increased bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, possibly into the summer, as officials weigh conflicting factors such as rising energy prices and uneven economic growth. (

As of 17:00 on July 2, spot gold was trading at $4,071.64 per ounce. The day before, the price of gold fell back after a surge, once reaching the $4,100/ounce mark during the session, and then the gains narrowed. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the European Central Bank Central Bank Forum in Portugal on July 1 that the current level of U.S. inflation is still too high, and reiterated that the Federal Reserve’s priority is to ensure price stability. The latest report released by the World Gold Council pointed out that a stronger U.S. dollar, higher-than-expected interest rate hikes and a rebound in market risk appetite are the main resistances facing gold prices. If gold prices remain below $4,000 an ounce, further selling could be triggered. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger "buy-on-the-dip" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. Fed's statement disturbs gold price Talking about the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest statement on gold prices, DBS China Senior Investment Strategist Deng Zhijian analyzed that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy only has the intention of stabilizing inflation for the time being, and has no intention of cooling the economy. The strategy of defensive interest rate hikes will have limited pressure on gold prices in the medium to long term. Dai Jianfeng, a distinguished expert from the China Gold Association, pointed out that the core reason for this round of gold price decline is the change in expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. At present, the Federal Reserve has basically ruled out the possibility of cutting interest rates within the year and is instead considering further interest rate increases. Recent U.S. inflation data have continued to be on the high side, and the current generally priced room for raising interest rates within the year is about 25 to 50 basis points. This difference in expectations pushed the U.S. dollar to strengthen and became the main driving force for gold's rapid decline. However, apart from short-term monetary policy disturbances, gold's mid- to long-term logic has not been completely broken. Dai Jianfeng believes that mid-term monetary policy is difficult to change the long-term economic laws and the fundamental characteristics of gold itself. Looking back at the Federal Reserve's policy cycle from 1971 to the present, a remarkable pattern is that when the United States enters an interest rate cut cycle, there is an 80 to 90 percent chance that gold prices will fluctuate upward; and in the expected stage of shifting from interest rate cuts to interest rate hikes, gold usually undergoes certain adjustments or callbacks. However, after actually entering the process of raising interest rates, depending on the environment at that time, there is still about a 50 to 60 percent chance that gold prices will rise instead. Therefore, mid-term monetary policy cannot reverse the underlying logic of the gold mid- to long-term bull market caused by the decline in the actual purchasing power of U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar. From a technical perspective, Dai Jianfeng believes that the area below $3,900 per ounce is the starting point for the rapid rise in the market since the fourth quarter of last year, and there is a high probability of technical rebound demand in this area. However, the medium-term direction will not be clear until the Fed’s policy becomes clear on July 28. "For mid- to long-term allocation investors, they have now entered a more reasonable layout range. It is recommended to allocate in batches appropriately based on their own risk tolerance." Investors should not panic to cut profits or buy low positions. As gold prices continue to fluctuate, how should investors respond? Looking forward to the second half of the year, capital flows and the macro environment are still important variables affecting gold prices. Deng Zhijian said that first of all, some countries that rely on crude oil exports once sold gold to maintain local fiscal expenditures. If the supply chain of crude oil and its by-products returns to normal, such selling will in turn turn into buying. Secondly, we must pay close attention to changes in demand for gold ETFs. Since March, demand for gold ETFs has decreased significantly in March. According to global gold ETF demand data released by the World Gold Council, global gold ETF net outflows were 84.3 tons in March, setting the largest single-month net outflow since September 2022, which seriously affected gold prices. At that time, there were three main reasons for the decrease in demand for gold ETFs: first, profit-taking, second, potential interest rate hikes driving the U.S. dollar higher, and third, some institutions needed to maintain more liquid cash to cope with the crisis. But these may be short-term negative factors. When global investors realize that the extent of interest rate hikes by major central banks is still limited, investor demand for gold ETFs may change. Zeng Gang, former deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said: "After the price of gold falls below 4,000 US dollars per ounce, investors need to abandon the two extreme ideas of panic cutting and bargain hunting, and establish a rational and layered operating framework."

Specifically in terms of investment, Zeng Gang believes that position management and control should strictly limit gold assets to account for 5%-10% of current assets. For positions exceeding 15%, positions can be reduced in batches through rebounds to reduce the risk of overall portfolio fluctuations, and there is no need for living expenses or leveraged funds to participate in gold investments. Positions are treated differently: Those who are deeply trapped at high positions do not blindly add positions to dilute costs, but wait for a clear signal to stop the decline before covering up their positions in small amounts; investors with short positions give up one-time bottom hunting and adopt a fixed investment mode in tranches, and arrange bargain hunting in 3-5 batches to smooth out the cost of holding positions. At the psychological level, the investment cycle is lengthened. Gold is suitable for long-term value preservation for 3 to 5 years and downplays short-term shocks. If you just need gold, you can buy jewelry in batches while taking advantage of the decline. For investment needs, give priority to gold ETFs, bank deposits and other low-threshold and low-premium varieties, avoid high-volatility gold leverage products, and insist on diversified allocation to hedge the risk of falling in a single category. Wang Haoyu, a researcher at Jian Jinxin Fund Evaluation Center, also said that investors should invest based on the mindset of asset allocation in broad categories, and conduct prudent assessments based on their own investment objectives and risk tolerance. Investors who already hold gold financial management can make judgments based on the type of product they hold: If they hold a "fixed income + gold" net-value financial management, since the main position is allocated to bonds, the proportion of gold is low and the overall risk is controllable; if they hold financial management products or gold ETFs that mainly invest in gold, they can smooth costs by entering in batches through fixed investment or ladder layout, and control gold assets at an appropriate proportion. (

U.S. stock futures narrowed their gains, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.2%.

On July 1 (Wednesday), Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, with the S&P 500 (SPX) index falling 0.22% to 7,483.23 points; the Dow Jones Index falling 0.03% to 52,305.24 points; and the Nasdaq (NDAQ) Index falling 0.66% to 26,040.03 points. On July 1, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.48%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate, was 4.17%. Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.25%, Google A (GOOGL) rose 1.08%, Google C (GOOG) rose 1.29%, Apple (AAPL) rose 1.74%, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 3.02%, and Amazon (AM) ZN) rose 1.41%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) fell 7.01%, Tesla (TSLA) rose 1.12%, Meta (META) rose 8.81%, AMD Semiconductor (AMD) fell 6.89%, and Intel (INTC) fell 9.03%. Index rise and fall points: France cac40 (FCHI) -0.79% 8337.29 Britain's FTSE 100 (FTSE) -0.18% 10478.34 Germany dax (GDAXI) 0.18% 25040.28 Russia rts (RTS) -0.15% 943.69 On July 1, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.93%, and the FTSE China A50 Index fell 1.15%. In terms of popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK0700) (Hong Kong stocks) rose 2.28%, Alibaba (BABA) rose 2.09%, Pinduoduo (PDD) rose 8.18%, NetEase (NT) ES) rose 1.22%, Baidu (BIDU) rose 3.19%, Ctrip (TCOM) rose 3.11%, Li Auto (LI) rose 4.17%, and Weilai (NIO) fell 1.98%. Foreign exchange rate changes (basis points) USD/CNY (off) 6.79-3.1 bp USD/EUR 0.88-1.3 bp USD/JPY 162.54-630 bp The latest price of commodity futures rise and fall: COMEX silver 3.06% 60.42 US dollars/ounce COMEX gold 0.49% 4037.40 US dollars/ounce WTI crude oil -0.58% 70.03 US dollars/barrel Brent crude oil 0.51% 72.92 US dollars/barrel LME copper 0.73% 13348.90 US dollars/ton

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 71.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 71.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate hike is 28.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 36.1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate hike is 14.1%. Apple (AAPL) is preparing a new iPad Pro and a redesigned entry-level MacBook Pro, and plans to launch a basic version of the M7 chip in the first half of next year. Apple (AAPL) is preparing an upgraded iPad Pro product line and a redesigned entry-level MacBook Pro for next year, further expanding the lineup of multiple blockbuster new products planned for the 20th anniversary of the birth of the iPhone. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple (AAPL) is testing four new iPad Pro models planned to be launched in the spring of 2027. Sources said that the new machine will retain the existing two screen sizes of 11 inches and 13 inches, and the core upgrade points include a more powerful chip. It is also building an entry-level MacBook Pro with a redesigned appearance. Apple (AAPL) also plans to launch a basic version of the M7 chip in the first half of next year. The goal is to quickly complete the iteration after the upcoming M6 generation chip and fully promote chip optimization work to adapt to more demanding artificial intelligence (885728) computing loads. Musk denied the Wall Street Journal's report that SpaceX (SPCX) had shown investors a prototype of a new artificial intelligence (885728) device. Musk denied a Wall Street Journal report that SpaceX (SPCX) had shown a prototype of a new artificial intelligence (885728) device to investors. (Financial Associated Press) The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set a new intraday all-time high, now up 0.79%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set a new intraday all-time high, now up 0.79%. Federal Reserve Chairman: The current level of U.S. inflation is still too high. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said at the European Central Bank Central Bank Forum in Portugal on July 1 that the current U.S. inflation level is still too high and reiterated that the Fed’s priority is to ensure price stability. Warsh said that the Fed will "open up a new policy path" but did not elaborate further. At the same time, he avoided the question about whether to raise interest rates at the July monetary policy meeting, emphasizing that it would not give forward guidance on future interest rate policies. Warsh said that the Federal Reserve is setting up an independent working group to conduct research on topics such as monetary policy communication, economic data systems, productivity, inflation framework and balance sheet policies. He believes that if the existing policy framework affects the efficiency of decision-making, reforms should be implemented. (Xinhua News Agency) Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh: The potential growth rate appears to be on an upward trend. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said that if the past four quarters are a guide, there is reason to be optimistic. Potential growth rates appear to be on an upward trend. (Financial Associated Press) The final value of the S&P Global (SPGI) manufacturing PMI in the United States in June was 53.9, compared with the previous value of 55.7. The final value of the S&P Global (SPGI) manufacturing PMI in the United States in June was 53.9, compared with the previous value of 55.7. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh: Inflation risks have declined Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said that inflation risks have declined. If anyone thinks we will be satisfied with inflation above 2%, they will be disappointed. (Financial Associated Press) Reports say that Microsoft (MSFT) plans to lay off thousands of jobs in sales, engineering, and Xbox fields. According to reports, Microsoft (MSFT) plans to lay off thousands of jobs in sales, engineering, and Xbox fields. Microsoft (MSFT) typically makes layoffs at the end of its fiscal year, which ends on Tuesday. The company said its headcount will be slightly smaller this year. (Associated Press) A Swedish court ruled that Google (GOOG) must pay nearly US$1.5 billion in antitrust damages. According to reports, the Stockholm Patent and Market Court of Sweden ruled on July 1 that Google (GOOG) must pay approximately 14.3 billion Swedish kronor (approximately US$1.5 billion) in antitrust compensation to PriceRunner, a price comparison platform owned by Swedish financial technology company Klarna (KLAR). PriceRunner sued Google (GOOG) in this court in 2022 and claimed approximately

2.1 billion euros, accusing Google (GOOG) of violating antitrust laws by manipulating search results to favor its own shopping price comparison service. (Interface News)

After a holiday-shortened trading week packed with labor market data and a surprise non-farm payrolls report, investors are heading into a period of relative calm in the coming week. After a mixed performance on Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing flat, the Nasdaq down 0.8% and the Dow Jones rising 1.1%, the market is set to pack its bags again this week. Monday is likely to be the most interesting day on the economic calendar, with a series of index readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) giving investors a sense of the state of the U.S. services economy. Prior to the release of this data, monthly private sector employment numbers released by data provider ADP showed that the service industry was the absolute main force in job creation in June. In the corporate world, earnings from PepsiCo (PEP) on Thursday and Delta Air Lines (DALUS) on Friday will be in focus this week. PepsiCo's results should give investors some insight into the state of the U.S. consumer, while Delta Air Lines will provide another look at the lasting impact of the war with Iran and the resulting energy crisis. SK Hynix is ​​expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 10 (Friday). The US$29 billion listing plan may become the largest US stock IPO of a foreign company in history. Jobs report throws doubt on rate hike bets As of Thursday, markets were increasingly convinced that a rate hike by Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve this year was a certainty. Then, the June employment report came out. The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs last month, about half of what economists expected. Meanwhile, May's huge increase in nonfarm payroll employment of 172,000 was revised down to 129,000, and April's number was also revised down from 179,000 to 148,000. This is clearly not the shining example of a healthy labor market that Warsh had been counting on. Although after the release of the report, the market still assumed that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates once this year, the market's confidence fell slightly. On Thursday morning, traders saw a roughly 75% chance that interest rates would be higher than current levels by the end of the year, according to data from CME Group. On Wednesday, the probability was about 84%. In his first press conference since the Fed's policy decision, Chairman Kevin Warsh focused on inflation and the goal of bringing inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, a goal that remains elusive amid the energy shock from the Iran war. Despite June's softer jobs data, many economists believe there may not be a particularly strong link between inflation and unemployment at the moment, leaving the pressure firmly on the price data - something to remember as earnings season approaches. The story of AI in the first half of the year belongs entirely to hardware Use one word to describe technology stock trading in the first half of 2026, and that is "imbalance." The iShares Extended Technology & Software ETF (IGV), which tracks various stocks in the technology sector, is down 12% this year. Even the "Big Seven," once a mainstay of large-cap tech stocks, as a group have lost 2% for investors over the past six months. On the other hand, chip stocks have had an explosive six months, driven by a frenzy for memory and storage sales and demand for the traditional processors needed to run AI deployments. Micron is the poster child for explosive growth in the first two quarters of this year, with its stock price soaring an astonishing 308%. Intel (INTC.US), which is committed to transformation and restructuring, also recorded an impressive increase of 280%, while AMD (AMD.US) rocketed by 173% during this period. Add it all together, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chip trading, has given investors about a 75% return since Jan. 1. Vivek Arya, a technology analyst at Bank of America, said that this trend is unlikely to change as the construction of the physical backbone network behind AI continues to advance at full speed. This is yet another reminder that while AI may be a product of software-minded Silicon Valley, the AI ​​economy is physical.

"We reiterate our thesis that the AI industry is moving from having to defend ROI to addressing structural and physical (chips, power) constraints," Arya wrote to clients. "Memory chip shortages and price inflation remain critical dynamics." SK hynix lands on U.S. stock market SK Hynix's $29 billion U.S. stock market listing could become the largest foreign IPO ever, but it's not just about raising money. It's also about competing in the hottest area of global stock markets: memory chips for artificial intelligence (AI) computing. The South Korea-based semiconductor maker has been trading at a discount to its main U.S. rival Micron Technology (MU.US) for years. At a time when companies making memory chips and other equipment used in AI data centers are driving performance in the S&P 500, tapping into the world's deepest stock market and its enthusiasm for all things artificial intelligence could help change that discount. For most U.S. investors, betting on SK Hynix has been very difficult, if not impossible. Like Micron, which is the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year with a stunning 242% gain, SK Hynix has benefited from surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. However, directly owning SK Hynix's South Korean-listed shares means trading must occur during non-business hours in the United States. SK Hynix is ​​expected to list on Nasdaq on July 10, which should change that and improve the team's lagging valuation. The South Korean company trades at 6.2 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months. After the stock plunged 14% last week, its worst performance since March, Micron currently trades at 7 times earnings, but as recently as June 22, its price-to-earnings ratio was more than 11 times.

Even as Tesla delivered a second-quarter delivery and production report that far exceeded Wall Street expectations, the electric car maker's stock price remained significantly weaker. Specific data shows that Tesla delivered a total of 480,126 vehicles in this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 34%, far exceeding analysts' previous expectations of 406,600 vehicles. Tesla's internal consensus estimate announced last week was 406,000 vehicles. Among them, the delivery volume of Model 3 and Model Y reached 467,762 units, accounting for approximately 97.4% of the total delivery volume. The report also showed that Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles in the second quarter and deployed 13.5 gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy storage products. Deliveries are the closest measure of Tesla's sales performance, but the company did not strictly define it in its shareholder communication document. The report also wrote that these data "should not be used as a reference indicator of quarterly financial performance." Despite the unexpectedly good results, Tesla shares closed down more than 7% on Thursday. Analysts believe that the stock has risen for four days and has digested most of the expectations. "Once the news actually came in, there was nothing to be excited about," said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP. Tesla is currently trying to reverse consecutive annual declines in vehicle sales, driven in part by the end of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit and fierce competition from electric vehicle manufacturers in Asia and Europe. The day before, BYD also announced a report showing that it delivered 557,090 pure electric models in the second quarter of 2026, 77,000 more than Tesla, regaining its global leadership position. Other analysts believe that if Tesla wants to sell more cars, it must make considerable profits from it - which is exactly what investors are worried about. To meet delivery targets, companies rely on price cuts and incentives, which squeeze profit margins. The analysis also pointed out that Tesla delivered about 28,000 more vehicles than it produced in the second quarter, which means Tesla sold existing inventory vehicles rather than new cars, confirming people's concerns that clearing backlog inventory is the main factor driving the growth in deliveries. Dan Hearsch, managing director of consulting firm AlixPartners, said that U.S. consumers are buying less pure electric vehicles in favor of hybrid models. "U.S. residents are far away from each other. In contrast, Europe's charging infrastructure is better and people's average driving distance is shorter." Hearsch also pointed out that in the second half of this year, U.S. inflation, Trump's trade policy changes, and rising costs of chips and other components may become the biggest challenges facing U.S. automakers. For Tesla, the biggest positive factor this quarter may be the surge in oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East. Affected by this, European consumers became more enthusiastic about buying Tesla and other electric vehicles in the first half of this year. However, due to the opening of negotiations between the United States and Iran, international oil prices have basically fallen back to the levels before the conflict broke out in February this year, and the electric vehicle industry may lose the key driving force of high oil prices. Dongcai Illustration·Add some useful information (

There is a lot of news from technology giants! In the past five trading days, Apple's stock price has continued to rise sharply, with a cumulative increase of more than 12%, and its market value has increased by US$491.7 billion (approximately RMB 3.3 trillion). Recently, it was reported that Apple has asked suppliers to significantly increase the stocking target of folding screen iPhones this year to 10 million units, higher than the previous estimate of 7 to 8 million units. In addition, Apple was revealed to plan to launch at least five new iPhone models between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. It is worth noting that the Indian government is launching an investigation into the massive data breach of Tata Electronics. Tata Electronics is a component supplier to Apple and one of the main OEMs for Apple mobile phones in India. Apple raises stocking target for foldable iPhone Recently, Nikkei Asia reported that Apple has asked suppliers to prepare for production of approximately 10 million foldable iPhones this year, higher than the previous estimate of 7 to 8 million units. That suggests Apple may be more confident about demand for its first foldable device than previously expected. The move comes as major smartphone makers race to expand into the foldable phone market, which is currently dominated by the likes of Samsung Electronics and Huawei. If Apple brings its usual high-end pricing strategy, ecosystem advantages and supply chain scale into this field, its entry may reshape the foldable mobile phone market. According to reports, people familiar with the matter revealed that Apple has made progress in solving technical problems related to the hinge of the folding screen iPhone, and small batch shipments can begin after the fall release. However, supply chain sources also said that due to the new structural design of folding screen products, real large-scale mass production may still have to wait until the end of this year. Counterpoint Research reports that Apple’s entry will drive global folding screen panel shipments to increase by 24% year-on-year in 2026, and revenue is expected to increase by approximately 48%. In terms of panel procurement share, Apple ranks second with 29%, second only to Samsung with 31%. At the same time, Apple has locked in the components required for approximately 80 million smartphones for new models to be launched in the second half of 2026, including: iPhone Pro, iPhone Pro Max, and the first folding screen iPhone. According to supply chain planning, Apple’s total iPhone production in 2026 (including existing models and new models) is expected to exceed 220 million units. In addition to folding screen products, Apple also plans to adjust its future iPhone release strategy. It is reported that Apple plans to launch at least five new iPhone models from the second half of 2026 to the first half of 2027 to seize market share with an intensive product rhythm. According to reports, the company will still focus on the release of high-end models in the second half of this year, including Pro, Pro Max and the first folding screen iPhone, while the release of the standard iPhone has been postponed to the first half of 2027 for the first time. According to current plans, Apple will launch at least two new models in the first half of 2027, including: the standard version of iPhone 18; and a new generation of iPhone Air. In addition, Apple is also planning to update the entry-level iPhone product line, but the specific release time has not yet been finalized. If the plan is implemented smoothly, Apple will launch at least five new iPhones in less than a year, becoming the most aggressive product update rhythm in recent years. Analysts believe that Apple hopes to use more intensive new product releases to cover different price bands, continue to strengthen its competitive advantage in the high-end market, and at the same time further erode the market share of competitors such as Samsung. Indian government investigates Apple phone data leak According to Xinhua News Agency, Krishnan, secretary of the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology of India, said on the 2nd that the government is investigating the large-scale data leakage of Tata Electronics. This is also the first time that the Indian government has spoken out about this incident. Krishnan said: "We are investigating." According to him, the relevant incident has been reported to the Computer Emergency Response Team, a subsidiary agency responsible for India's cyber security.

Tata Electronics is a component supplier to Apple and one of the main OEMs for Apple mobile phones in India. According to Reuters, a gang recently stole a large amount of undisclosed confidential data from Tata Electronics and uploaded it to the dark web, including unreleased iPhone 18 Pro parts supply chain information and model testing materials. The documents show that there are at least six documents detailing the exclusive supplier of each component of the iPhone 18 Pro, covering details of core accessories such as motherboard chips, battery components, and camera modules. According to the "Times of India" report, multiple photos in a folder named iPhone 18 Pro show that the factory is conducting drop tests on a gray mobile phone, with a date of early 2026; multiple files also have "confidential" watermarks and internal code names. Apple is expected to launch a number of new models in September this year, and the timing of this data breach is very difficult for Apple. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple classifies this type of information as a trade secret and has never previously disclosed the specific information corresponding to each component in a public supplier list. This supply chain information has been completely exposed this time. Currently, Apple has launched an investigation into this data leak; Tata is investigating internal security vulnerabilities and hiring an international consulting agency to conduct a forensic audit. (

Early this morning, at the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session, major U.S. stock index futures rose across the board, with Nasdaq 100 index futures soaring by more than 1%; the precious metals market also strengthened collectively. Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest report that it has captured the initial dip buying signal of "U.S. momentum stocks" and that the momentum factor has the basis for a tactical rebound. At the same time, international oil prices continued to fall, which also eased market concerns about the risk of rising inflation. On the news, OPEC+ has agreed to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. Wall Street institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have recently warned that the international crude oil market may be at risk of oversupply next year. In the morning of July 6, Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose. As of 7:20, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.45%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Dow futures rose 0.04%. The precious metals market also rose slightly, with spot silver rising 1.2% to US$63.11 per ounce and spot gold rising 0.37% to US$4,189.54 per ounce. U.S. stocks were closed for holidays last Friday, and the share prices of Korean chip giants rose sharply across the board. As of the close, SK Hynix rose 10.88% and Samsung Electronics rose 8.22%. In the previous two trading days, U.S. chip stocks fell sharply, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by more than 11%. The Goldman Sachs Trading Desk pointed out that the current decline in "U.S. momentum stocks" has provided room for short-term tactical rebounds - historical experience shows that the momentum factor often records positive returns during the correction phase. However, Goldman Sachs reminded that momentum factor positions are still highly crowded, and if the deleveraging trend continues, the maximum potential retracement may still be twice the current decline. Overall, the market is in the early stages of clearing momentum strategy positions, and the key to subsequent interpretation lies in the game between the liquidity environment and the rhythm of emotional repair. Data from Goldman Sachs shows that the momentum factor has fallen by 24% since its peak, the largest retracement since the first quarter of 2023, which is significantly higher than the historical average retracement of about 12%. Looking at the adjustment cycle, the historical average lasts for about 24 days, while the current one lasts only 10 days. Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 2026, high beta momentum strategies have experienced multiple losses of more than 10% within two days, and have since recovered to varying degrees. The current market trend is highly consistent with the previous model. The bank believes that this round of amplified decline is mainly affected by structural factors such as low liquidity and weak summer trading, and is not a fundamental change in the fundamental trend. Judging from historical experience, the winning rate of the bargain-hunting strategy has significantly improved after the Federal Reserve’s policy turns to easing (such as during the epidemic). Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned that the market's doubts about the return rate on its capital expenditures caused by Meta's transformation to cloud business are similar to the path of impact on market sentiment caused by similar concerns in the past. The bank's trading department currently judges that the core narrative of AI has not yet undergone structural changes that are sufficient to drive a deeper correction. International oil prices continue to fall International oil prices continued to fall. As of 7:20 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.52% to US$68.33/barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to US$71.68/barrel. On the news, according to Bloomberg, OPEC+ has agreed to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. This quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day will bring OPEC+’s cumulative new quota since the outbreak of the war to 940,000 barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 1% of global demand. The above-mentioned production increase plan is jointly promoted by seven major member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to previous reports by Bloomberg, OPEC+ has formulated a roadmap and plans to complete the full cancellation of the two rounds of production cuts in 2023 by September through continued quota increases. The interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran has cleared key obstacles for the Persian Gulf oil-producing countries to resume exports. According to tanker tracking data, oil exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have basically returned to pre-war levels, and the freight channels between the two countries through the Strait of Hormuz have been successfully opened. However, data compiled by Bloomberg show that the actual output of the two countries is still far below normal. The current recovery in exports mainly relies on the digestion of early inventory, rather than the simultaneous recovery of production capacity. It will still take time to fully release output.

At the same time, there are also variables in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV News, data released by the US-led Joint Maritime Information Center on the 5th showed that in the 72 hours from July 2 to 4, a total of 70 merchant ships were escorted by the US through the Strait of Hormuz. The scale of navigation was far lower than the average daily average of 138 ships before the conflict. This data was released by the British Maritime Trade Action Office on the same day. The announcement shows that the daily traffic volume of U.S.-coordinated escort ships continues to decline: 33 ships on July 2, 29 ships on July 3, and only 18 ships on July 4. There are currently two navigation channels in the Strait of Hormuz, namely the southern channel near Oman and the northern channel controlled by Iran. The traffic volume of the southern channel escorted by the United States has not continued to increase, and the actual total navigation volume of the northern channel is difficult to accurately calculate. The announcement rated the threat level in the entire Strait of Hormuz as "high." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to carry out very high-frequency radio broadcasts, drone close-in reconnaissance and tracking surveillance on transiting merchant ships, and implements regular control of the Strait waterways; ships that continue to turn on the automatic ship identification system signal may receive warnings requiring diversion to Iranian-controlled waterways. The announcement also stated that there is still a risk of mines in the Strait waters, and relevant mine clearance survey operations are being carried out across the entire area; interference to global navigation satellite systems in the entire area is normal and will continue to pose hidden dangers to the safety of ship navigation. (

"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reported on July 6 that the main contents of today's Science and Technology Innovation Board morning report include: my country successfully launched the Qianfan constellation networking satellite; Micron Technology invested US$9.3 billion to expand the advanced memory chip project; Doubao: The intelligent body function will be offline on July 15. Huawei's He Tingbo releases V2 version of "Tao's Law" paper to supplement engineering details and measured data According to the latest published paper on ChinaXiv, the scientific paper pre-release platform of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, He Tingbo, head of Huawei Semiconductor, released the V2 version of "Time Micronization Theory for Multi-level Electronic Systems" (also known as "Tao's Law" in the industry) on July 3. Compared with the V1 version released on May 25, the new version of the paper is based on the original theoretical framework and adds a large number of project implementation details, actual measured data and product evolution routes, further improving the post-Moore era scaling theoretical system with the time constant τ as the core. my country successfully launches Qianfan constellation networking satellite At 21:43 yesterday, at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, the Long March-8A carrier rocket accurately delivered 15 sets of Qianfan Polar Orbit satellites into the predetermined orbit. The launch mission was a complete success. Huaqiangbei storage market rebounds, prices of various solid state drives and memory modules rise Reporters recently visited Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen and found that the storage market in Huaqiangbei has rebounded, with prices of memory sticks and solid-state drives rising, and prices of related products from Samsung, Kingston and SanDisk rising. Merchants in Huaqiangbei said that the purchase price of a Samsung 990 Pro 1TB solid-state drive is 1,400 yuan, and its external selling price is 1,420 yuan to 1,450 yuan. The merchant admitted frankly that the price of this Samsung product is on the high side. Although the price has increased in recent days, the store's shipments of this product have been sluggish. When the reporter visited Huaqiangbei in mid-May, the product sold for 1,380 yuan. By comparison, the price has increased, but there is still a gap from the price of over 1,600 yuan in March. In terms of memory, a merchant in Huaqiangbei said: "The price of memory has increased in the past two days." The reporter learned that a Kingston 16GB DDR4 memory stick is currently selling for 750 yuan to 800 yuan. In mid-May, this product was currently selling for 680 yuan in Huaqiangbei. The current price has rebounded to the range of more than 700 yuan to more than 800 yuan before March. In addition, SanDisk Extreme 2TB mobile solid-state drive currently sells for 1,380 yuan. The product was quoted at more than 1,500 yuan in March this year. It has remained stable for some time after falling back in April and May. When the reporter visited in mid-May, the product sold for 1,350 yuan. State Food and Drug Administration: Include qualified cell and gene therapy drugs into the 30-day review and approval channel for innovative drug clinical trials The General Affairs Department of the State Food and Drug Administration publicly solicits opinions on the "Announcement on Optimizing the Review and Approval of Cell and Gene Therapy Drugs (Draft for Comment)". It is mentioned that innovation in research and development is encouraged and the quality and efficiency of clinical research and development are improved. Support clinical value-oriented R&D innovation of cell and gene therapy drugs, focus on research in key areas such as malignant tumors, rare diseases, genetic diseases, immune system diseases, neurodegenerative diseases, etc. Encourage global simultaneous R&D and international multi-center clinical trials in China, and include qualified cell and gene therapy drugs in the 30-day review and approval channel for innovative drug clinical trials to improve the quality and efficiency of clinical research and development. Micron Technology invests US$9.3 billion to expand advanced memory chip project and expects to ship HBM in the second half of 2028 Micron Technology officially launched the expansion project of its Hiroshima factory in western Japan on Saturday (July 4) local time. The project, with a total investment of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately US$9.3 billion), aims to produce advanced memory chips including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet the strong demand brought about by the artificial intelligence (AI) wave. HBM is a key component of Nvidia's AI processors, and the factory is expected to start shipping around the summer of 2028. Recently, Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have each announced plans to expand manufacturing capabilities. Earlier this week, SK Hynix announced that it plans to invest 80 trillion won (approximately US$51.46 billion) to build a new NAND memory chip factory in Cheongju City, the capital of North Chungcheong Province, South Korea. Hon Hai: Sales in June were NT$821.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.1%

Hon Hai’s sales in June were NT$821.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.1%. Hon Hai previously stated that its second-quarter performance far exceeded expectations and achieved significant growth; the second quarter is the traditional off-season for the ICT industry, but it is expected that AI racks will continue to maintain a growth trend. Tesla limits employee AI usage expenses, and many U.S. technology companies tighten AI spending According to reports, Tesla will limit employee spending on artificial intelligence tools starting on the 6th of this month. Similar measures have been adopted by many other American technology companies. According to reports, Tesla has issued an internal memo to employees, announcing that starting from July 6, each employee will be capped at $200 per week in spending on AI tools, with any excess subject to supervisor approval. However, Tesla employees’ use of Musk’s xAI’s Grok model does not count toward the $200 credit. It is reported that Grok has low acceptance among Tesla employees, and most employees still choose to use Anthropic's Claude. Doubao: The intelligent agent function will be offline on July 15th Zhongji InnoLight: The market rumor that "the company's upstream material glare film is blocked" is not consistent with the facts Zhongji InnoLight stated on its interactive platform on July 5 that market rumors that "the company's upstream material glare film has been blocked" are not consistent with the facts. The company has normal procurement channels for core materials, and suppliers are also actively supporting, and there is no blockage. Although optical modules have an assembly process (one of dozens of processes), they cannot be simply equated with the assembly industry. High-end optical modules cover core technologies such as silicon photonics and coherence, and also require long-term reliability testing and strict access certification from major customers. In summary, the system design, integration optimization and manufacturing process of optical modules are core technologies and are by no means simple assembly or assembly. UFJ Technology: After its wholly-owned subsidiary subscribes for the additional shares of QES Group Berhad, it does not control it. The latter is mainly engaged in semiconductor and wafer inspection and other services. Yongding Shares: Q2 net profit is expected to increase by 114%-240% month-on-month, and the optical fiber market volume and price will rise. Yongding Shares (600105.SH) announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 500 million yuan-700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%-120%. The change in performance is mainly due to the fact that the optical communications sector has benefited from the advancement of the digital economy and the explosion in demand for AI computing power. The volume and price of the optical fiber market have increased, and the sector's profits have increased significantly. Allied: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 492%-604% year-on-year Olade (688378.SH) announced that it expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2026 to be 160 million yuan-190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 492%-604%. The performance changes are mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the core competitive barriers in the equipment business, the full implementation of product technology and market positioning advantages, the substantial growth in related business income, and the significant improvement in profitability. Careide: Plans to invest 80 million yuan in aerospace-grade memory chip company Aikosa Technology Puyuan Jingdian: Net profit is expected to increase by 113%-163% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 Puyuan Fine Technology (688337.SH) announced that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 34.5839 million yuan-42.6223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113%-163%. The performance growth is mainly due to the company's continuous promotion of technological innovation and product iteration, with new products and solutions contributing to revenue, and good expansion in strategic industries such as communications, new energy, and semiconductors. Shijia Photonics: The third largest shareholder Hebi Investment Group plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% of its shares Shijia Photonics (688313.SH) announced that the company's shareholder Hebi Investment Group, which holds more than 5% of the shares, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 4.52 million shares, or no more than 1% of the company's total share capital, through centralized bidding within 3 months after 15 trading days from the date of the announcement. As of the announcement date, Hebi Investment Group held 30 million shares of the company, accounting for 6.64% of the total share capital. Zhuoran Shares: The stock has been issued a delisting risk warning and will resume trading on July 7

Zhuoran Shares (688121.SH) announced that because the company was unable to complete the disclosure of the 2025 annual report within the legal period, the stock was subject to a delisting risk warning from July 7, 2026. The A-share abbreviation was changed to "*ST Zhuoran", and the daily increase or decrease limit is still 20%. Trading of the company's shares was suspended for one day on July 6 and resumed on July 7. If the company fails to disclose its annual report within 2 months after being issued a delisting risk warning, the company's shares will be terminated from listing. New semiconductor chip can simultaneously measure multiple biological signals A research team from Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea has developed the world's first "time-interleaved third-order noise shaping successive approximation analog-to-digital converter" semiconductor chip. The chip can simultaneously measure a variety of biological signals, including cardiac electrophysiological activity and record muscle resting or contraction details. The team recently published a relevant paper at the IEEE International Symposium on VLSI held in Honolulu, USA. New lidar can simultaneously acquire target position, velocity and material properties A joint team from Canada and the United States has developed a new lidar system that can simultaneously obtain the position, velocity and surface material properties of objects in the scene in a single scan. This technology expands the sensing capabilities of lidar from traditional distance measurement to richer dimensions, which is of great significance to technical fields such as autonomous driving, robotics, and remote sensing. The research is published in a new issue of the journal Optics. (

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest commercial bank in the United States, said on Monday that he was worried about the U.S. economy. He pointed out that high asset prices and a fiercely competitive environment in the banking industry reminded him of the years before the 2008 crisis. While many economists have praised the Trump administration's tax and deregulation policies for boosting economic growth this year, Dimon told the annual investor conference that his own inclination is to think about what might go wrong when expectations run high. "I personally think that people are starting to kind of believe that these are real - that these high asset prices and huge trading volumes are real and that we're not going to have any problems," he said. Dimon further said that changes in the economic cycle will inevitably lead to waves of borrower defaults, which will affect lenders broadly and often affect industries that people least expect. "There's going to be a cycle one day... I don't know what factors are going to trigger that cycle. I'm very anxious about that," Dimon said. "High asset prices don't make me feel comfortable. In fact, I think it increases risk." While concerns that Anthropic and OpenAI's artificial intelligence models could disrupt numerous industries, particularly software companies, have caused market turmoil in recent weeks, the broader S&P 500 isn't far off from its all-time high. At the same time, private credit institutions have been hit hard by concerns about artificial intelligence-related corporate loans, coupled with an announcement by U.S. asset manager Blue Owl Capital that it had to sell assets to meet the needs of investors eager to exit its funds, triggering market panic. The incident sent shares of large alternative asset managers including Apollo, KKR and Blackstone down, leaving some market watchers to wonder whether a broader credit market recession had begun. "There are always some surprises in credit cycles," Dimon said. "Usually, the biggest surprises tend to be in the industries that are most affected. In 2008 and 2009, you wouldn't have expected utilities and telecoms to be affected. This time, because of the rise of artificial intelligence, the software industry may bear the brunt." Dimon also said he agreed with comments his deputies made earlier at the investor event about private credit. Troy Rohrbaugh, the bank's co-head of commercial and investment banking, said he believed the credit problems were unlikely to be limited to private lenders but would be "broader." "Right now, it seems like this is happening in only a few places, but that could easily change and we're prepared for that," Rohrbaugh said. Finally, regarding the current situation, Dimon warned that the current environment is similar to the three years before the 2008 financial crisis, because "everyone is making a lot of money, people are using leverage, and anything is possible." He pointed out that some financial companies are now "doing some stupid things" in pursuit of interest income (earned through lending and investment activities). (

Gold prices are testing support at $4,000 an ounce. Market strategist Nitesh Shah believes that gold prices have returned to a reasonable value and are still in a long-term bull market. Gold prices are expected to rise by 25% by the first quarter of next year. He emphasized that it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates many times in such a short period of time. Although the U.S. labor market is relatively strong and inflation is high, the overall economic situation has not changed much. In addition, if the Fed actively reduces the size of its balance sheet, it will also reduce the need for multiple interest rate hikes. (