Pre-market: Nasdaq futures fell 1.11%, chip stocks sold off again
Global market risk sentiment came under pressure on Tuesday. After Samsung Electronics announced blowout results, investors still expected more. Chipmakers were once again hit by volatility and stock markets fell. At the same time, Brent crude oil posted its biggest gain in more than a week and bond prices fell. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.30%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.11%. Samsung's surge in earnings failed to appease the market Samsung Electronics predicts that operating profit from April to June will surge 19 times year-on-year to 89.4 trillion won, approximately US$58.4 billion, which will mark the third consecutive quarter of record operating profit for the world's largest memory chip manufacturer. However, this performance did not appease investors. Instead, it triggered a massive sell-off in the shares of Samsung and rival SK Hynix, dragging down South Korea's KOSPI index and other Asian markets with a heavy weight on technology stocks. Investors are increasingly questioning whether AI-related profit growth can be sustained if supply bottlenecks in key components such as memory chips ease. Kathleen Brooks, director of research at XTB, said: "This is a record for Samsung, but these strong results did not calm the market, but instead raised concerns that the AI chip sales boom will not be sustainable." In a report released on Monday, it said that recent weakness in U.S. semiconductor stocks indicates that the market rally is expanding. Investors may turn to AI hyperscale cloud service providers, as well as consumer discretionary, transportation and biotech stocks. SK hynix expected to land this week , with a listing size of US$28 billion, one of the largest new stock issuances in the world. The chipmaker is trying to capitalize on the AI boom. SK Hynix's stock price rose as much as 350% at its peak this year, but has fallen by about 30% since peaking two weeks ago amid a broad sell-off in global chip stocks. In the European market, with limited exposure to volatile AI-related stocks, 17 of 20 sectors in the European Stoxx 600 index rose, although the overall index changed little. AI hyperscale cloud service providers such as Alphabet and Alphabet rose in early trading. rose 1.6%, software stocks also strengthened simultaneously. It fell 4.6% before the market opened. down 3.4%. Samsung's U.S. suppliers Lam Research and Applied Materials both fell about 3.7% before the market opened. Samsung, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer by market value, fell 7.5% in the Seoul market. Although its profits surged 19 times, the quarterly report failed to impress traders. Analysts pointed out that the recent pullback in South Korean stocks should be viewed in the context of previous historic gains. After the KOSPI index rose about **100%** in the first half of this year, some investors appear to be cashing in their gains. Japan's Nikkei Index, another company that benefited from AI trading, fell 1.3%, Tokyo Electronics fell 2.45%, and Kioxia Holdings plummeted 11%. Semiconductor stocks are facing a new round of scrutiny After an unprecedented rally, semiconductor stocks are facing a new round of scrutiny. Traders are beginning to question whether high valuations and hundreds of billions of dollars in spending on AI infrastructure are sustainable. At the same time, the volatility is driving investors into previously lagging areas within the technology sector and in the broader market. Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, said: "The market's reaction to Samsung shows that investors have now entered a 'beat-than-expected results and raise guidance' mindset." He added: "Another factor that may weigh on technology stocks today is the inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq index, as index funds will sell some technology stocks to free up allocation space." SpaceX to be included in Nasdaq 100 Index While investors expect SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 to spark some mild volatility, the rocket and AI company is earning a clear Buy consensus. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, , has given the stock the equivalent of a buy rating.
Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said: "The inclusion of SpaceX in the index will undoubtedly cause some volatility today, but ultimately it should benefit shareholders by improving liquidity. This is short-term pain, long-term gain." Marija Veitmane, director of equity research at State Street Global Markets, believes the latest sell-off in technology stocks has once again created a buying opportunity. She said: "Samsung's performance confirms the insatiable demand for all IT-related products created by the AI revolution. No other sector has similar profitability." Shipping attacks in Strait of Hormuz Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to $72.94 a barrel. Previous attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the continued risks faced by ships in this key waterway. Oil prices closed at pre-war levels on the previous trading day. However, analysts said the upside may still be limited. Soojin Kim of MUFG said: "Saudi Arabia has lowered its August official selling price, OPEC+ continues to lift production cuts, Gulf exports are recovering, and the physical market supply remains sufficient." The dollar and Treasury yields rose ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on Wednesday. Later today, world leaders will attend a NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye. Investors in the defense sector will be paying close attention to the meeting to look for news on military spending by various governments. US President Donald Trump will attend a NATO meeting in Türkiye starting on Tuesday. Trump has previously pressured Europe to increase defense spending and clashed with European leaders over the Iran war and Greenland. Trump said on Monday that the United States would either make a deal with Iran or "get the job done." In Iran, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah After Khamenei’s funeral, Tehran showed a tough stance and Trump once again issued threats of military action. In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar's performance against six major currencies, was essentially flat at 100.88. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1436. In the Japanese market, the yen strengthened slightly, trading at around 161.90 yen per dollar, although positioning data showed that hedge funds were the most bearish on the yen since 2007. Strong demand at Japan's ultra-long-term government bond auctions has pushed Japanese government bond yields down from multi-decade highs. Global bonds weakened as money markets increased bets on further policy tightening, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising 3 basis points to 4.50%. Investors will get more clues on Wednesday about how new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will handle monetary policy. At that time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which will be the first meeting minutes released under its leadership. Analysts at Danske Bank said in a note that the minutes may provide "a more nuanced picture of whether he pushed the Fed to move faster to a tighter policy stance." Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December and March next year. German 10-year government bond yields rose to a two-week high of 2.974% in early trading, with yields rising across the board. The increase in net financing in Germany is one of the driving factors, and German bond yields have also followed the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields. Christoph Rieger of Commerzbank said: "The total net financing increase in Germany's 2027 draft budget and the subsequent three-year financing plan adds up to 48.5 billion euros." The head of rates and credit research said: "This will increase net financing by 5% from 2026 to 2030 to more than 1 trillion euros." Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $63,355. Previously, Bitcoin hit a two-week high of $64,539 overnight, but recent gains are losing momentum. Gold fell for a second straight day to around $4,125. Analysts at Saxo Bank said: "Overall, gold is still in a range-bound state and is trying to move from capitulation selling to a consolidation phase. Weaker U.S. data, as well as a less unfavorable dollar and yield backdrop for gold, provide support for gold prices."
"However, with U.S. short-end yields still pointing to the risk of a rate hike later this year, the market will also need to see further cooling in interest rate expectations if it is to support a more sustained recovery," the analysts added. An internal report from the U.S. Treasury Department sounds the alarm: If the AI industry repeats the mistakes of the Internet bubble, it may trigger a systemic economic impact. According to a draft internal report of the U.S. Treasury Department obtained by relevant media, although the Trump administration has spared no effort to support the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in public, professional analysts from the Treasury Department under his command have issued a stern warning: AI companies are now more deeply embedded in the U.S. economy than Internet companies at the turn of the century. Once the AI market repeats the drama of the Internet bubble bursting, the resulting shock wave will sweep across the entire economic system. "A downturn in the AI industry will affect the stock market, private credit markets, companies financing data center construction, cloud service providers, chip manufacturers, and utility companies," the analysts wrote, and its ripple effects will "cause shocks throughout the entire economic ecosystem." The report believes that AI investors are currently taking extremely huge risks, so much so that the stability of the entire financial system depends to a large extent on whether AI can achieve a productivity leap and realize profits as expected. Goldman Sachs: The profits of heavy asset stocks are expected to lead the rally, and capital rotation has entered a "protracted battle." Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group believe that capital-intensive companies are expected to deliver solid earnings this earnings season, further outperforming their asset-light peers that rely more on human resources or digital assets. A team of Goldman Sachs strategists headed by Guillaume Jaisson pointed out: "Investors are still under-allocated in a world where real assets, infrastructure and industrial capacity have regained strategic importance." Jaisson pointed out that "HALO" transactions - that is, "Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) - are currently entering a "more sustainable phase", and profit-driven rather than general valuation increases will become the main force of the market. He said that even within the heavy asset sector, the division between winners and losers will further widen. Jaisson emphasized: “We are not bearish on AI or asset-light, but we just believe that the current relative valuations and capital flows have been extremely excessive. The core logic of HALO trading is that in the process of the scarcity of physical assets being re-priced by the market, the premium of profit certainty will continue to exist. " The "double bubble" of U.S. stocks is approaching its extreme value: it may trigger a 30%-50% correction. The investment boom surrounding AI continues to push up the trend of U.S. stocks, with major indexes such as the S&P 500 continuing to reach new highs. In this context, some market bulls regard the forward price-to-earnings ratio as a key basis and believe that the current valuation has not entered a bubble range. This judgment is based on the rapid upward revision of expected earnings over the next 12 months. Despite the significant gains in stock prices, Wall Street's expectations for corporate profits have risen even more sharply. Earnings growth expectations remain strong as second-quarter earnings season approaches. FactSet statistics show that S&P 500 companies are expected to achieve double-digit profit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter, and analysts currently expect overall profit growth to exceed 23%. However, questions remain about whether this growth can be sustained in the long term. Some analysts pointed out that the current profit growth rate has significantly deviated from the historical trend, while the overall valuation level is still in an extreme range. From another valuation dimension, market risk is more prominent. As measured by the Shiller CAPE ratio, the S&P 500 is currently valued at approximately 41 times earnings, approaching the all-time high set during the dot-com bubble. They further analyzed that unlike the Internet era, when corporate earnings growth was relatively moderate, the current earnings per share growth rate is already 1.8 standard deviations higher than the long-term trend. If earnings were adjusted back to a level closer to normal, the CAPE ratio would rise to 67.6x, equivalent to 4.6 standard deviations above the long-term trend. Analysts wrote that this would exceed the peak of all asset bubbles in U.S. history. Based on this calculation, the report pointed out that the current market is not only overvalued at the price level, but also superimposed with abnormally expanded profit expectations, and is approaching a state of "price bubble superimposed on profit bubble". Financial technology company Fiserv is working with
Affected by this news, the stock rose by more than 5% during the session as a large U.S. bank negotiated to sell its payment infrastructure business responsible for debit card transactions. Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Crinetics Pharmaceuticals jointly announced on Monday that Vertex Pharmaceuticals will spend $10 billion to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals and acquire a number of drugs for the treatment of rare endocrine diseases. After the news was announced, Vertex Pharmaceuticals' shares fell slightly by nearly 1%, while Klinek Pharmaceuticals' shares nearly doubled. Deutsche Bank upgraded First Solar to buy from neutral, sending shares of the photovoltaic module maker up nearly 3%. The bank listed three major reasons for bargain hunting, including the possibility of adjustments to international trade policies. Technology giant Samsung announced mixed quarterly financial results overnight. Investors have reduced their AI-related positions, and chip stocks collectively fell before the market opened. Micron Technology (Micron) and Lam Research (Lam Research) both fell 5%. Shares of electric vehicle company Rivian fell 9%. The company announced revenue and delivery guidance that were higher than the FactSet market consensus, but also announced plans to issue 75 million new shares in a large-scale financing. The weight of the Korean stock market is concentrated on semiconductor companies, and the global chip sell-off has dragged down the market. Korea's Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) fell more than 4%; the iShares MSCI Korea ETF (ticker EWY) fell 4.6% in premarket. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed
Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said: "The inclusion of SpaceX in the index will undoubtedly cause some volatility today, but ultimately it should benefit shareholders by improving liquidity. This is short-term pain, long-term gain." Marija Veitmane, director of equity research at State Street Global Markets, believes the latest sell-off in technology stocks has once again created a buying opportunity. She said: "Samsung's performance confirms the insatiable demand for all IT-related products created by the AI revolution. No other sector has similar profitability." Shipping attacks in Strait of Hormuz Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to $72.94 a barrel. Previous attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the continued risks faced by ships in this key waterway. Oil prices closed at pre-war levels on the previous trading day. However, analysts said the upside may still be limited. Soojin Kim of MUFG said: "Saudi Arabia has lowered its August official selling price, OPEC+ continues to lift production cuts, Gulf exports are recovering, and the physical market supply remains sufficient." The dollar and Treasury yields rose ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on Wednesday. Later today, world leaders will attend a NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye. Investors in the defense sector will be paying close attention to the meeting to look for news on military spending by various governments. US President Donald Trump will attend a NATO meeting in Türkiye starting on Tuesday. Trump has previously pressured Europe to increase defense spending and clashed with European leaders over the Iran war and Greenland. Trump said on Monday that the United States would either make a deal with Iran or "get the job done." In Iran, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah After Khamenei’s funeral, Tehran showed a tough stance and Trump once again issued threats of military action. In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar's performance against six major currencies, was essentially flat at 100.88. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1436. In the Japanese market, the yen strengthened slightly, trading at around 161.90 yen per dollar, although positioning data showed that hedge funds were the most bearish on the yen since 2007. Strong demand at Japan's ultra-long-term government bond auctions has pushed Japanese government bond yields down from multi-decade highs. Global bonds weakened as money markets increased bets on further policy tightening, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising 3 basis points to 4.50%. Investors will get more clues on Wednesday about how new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will handle monetary policy. At that time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which will be the first meeting minutes released under its leadership. Analysts at Danske Bank said in a note that the minutes may provide "a more nuanced picture of whether he pushed the Fed to move faster to a tighter policy stance." Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December and March next year. German 10-year government bond yields rose to a two-week high of 2.974% in early trading, with yields rising across the board. The increase in net financing in Germany is one of the driving factors, and German bond yields have also followed the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields. Christoph Rieger of Commerzbank said: "The total net financing increase in Germany's 2027 draft budget and the subsequent three-year financing plan adds up to 48.5 billion euros." The head of rates and credit research said: "This will increase net financing by 5% from 2026 to 2030 to more than 1 trillion euros." Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $63,355. Previously, Bitcoin hit a two-week high of $64,539 overnight, but recent gains are losing momentum. Gold fell for a second straight day to around $4,125. Analysts at Saxo Bank said: "Overall, gold is still in a range-bound state and is trying to move from capitulation selling to a consolidation phase. Weaker U.S. data, as well as a less unfavorable dollar and yield backdrop for gold, provide support for gold prices."
"However, with U.S. short-end yields still pointing to the risk of a rate hike later this year, the market will also need to see further cooling in interest rate expectations if it is to support a more sustained recovery," the analysts added. An internal report from the U.S. Treasury Department sounds the alarm: If the AI industry repeats the mistakes of the Internet bubble, it may trigger a systemic economic impact. According to a draft internal report of the U.S. Treasury Department obtained by relevant media, although the Trump administration has spared no effort to support the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in public, professional analysts from the Treasury Department under his command have issued a stern warning: AI companies are now more deeply embedded in the U.S. economy than Internet companies at the turn of the century. Once the AI market repeats the drama of the Internet bubble bursting, the resulting shock wave will sweep across the entire economic system. "A downturn in the AI industry will affect the stock market, private credit markets, companies financing data center construction, cloud service providers, chip manufacturers, and utility companies," the analysts wrote, and its ripple effects will "cause shocks throughout the entire economic ecosystem." The report believes that AI investors are currently taking extremely huge risks, so much so that the stability of the entire financial system depends to a large extent on whether AI can achieve a productivity leap and realize profits as expected. Goldman Sachs: The profits of heavy asset stocks are expected to lead the rally, and capital rotation has entered a "protracted battle." Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group believe that capital-intensive companies are expected to deliver solid earnings this earnings season, further outperforming their asset-light peers that rely more on human resources or digital assets. A team of Goldman Sachs strategists headed by Guillaume Jaisson pointed out: "Investors are still under-allocated in a world where real assets, infrastructure and industrial capacity have regained strategic importance." Jaisson pointed out that "HALO" transactions - that is, "Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) - are currently entering a "more sustainable phase", and profit-driven rather than general valuation increases will become the main force of the market. He said that even within the heavy asset sector, the division between winners and losers will further widen. Jaisson emphasized: “We are not bearish on AI or asset-light, but we just believe that the current relative valuations and capital flows have been extremely excessive. The core logic of HALO trading is that in the process of the scarcity of physical assets being re-priced by the market, the premium of profit certainty will continue to exist. " The "double bubble" of U.S. stocks is approaching its extreme value: it may trigger a 30%-50% correction. The investment boom surrounding AI continues to push up the trend of U.S. stocks, with major indexes such as the S&P 500 continuing to reach new highs. In this context, some market bulls regard the forward price-to-earnings ratio as a key basis and believe that the current valuation has not entered a bubble range. This judgment is based on the rapid upward revision of expected earnings over the next 12 months. Despite the significant gains in stock prices, Wall Street's expectations for corporate profits have risen even more sharply. Earnings growth expectations remain strong as second-quarter earnings season approaches. FactSet statistics show that S&P 500 companies are expected to achieve double-digit profit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter, and analysts currently expect overall profit growth to exceed 23%. However, questions remain about whether this growth can be sustained in the long term. Some analysts pointed out that the current profit growth rate has significantly deviated from the historical trend, while the overall valuation level is still in an extreme range. From another valuation dimension, market risk is more prominent. As measured by the Shiller CAPE ratio, the S&P 500 is currently valued at approximately 41 times earnings, approaching the all-time high set during the dot-com bubble. They further analyzed that unlike the Internet era, when corporate earnings growth was relatively moderate, the current earnings per share growth rate is already 1.8 standard deviations higher than the long-term trend. If earnings were adjusted back to a level closer to normal, the CAPE ratio would rise to 67.6x, equivalent to 4.6 standard deviations above the long-term trend. Analysts wrote that this would exceed the peak of all asset bubbles in U.S. history. Based on this calculation, the report pointed out that the current market is not only overvalued at the price level, but also superimposed with abnormally expanded profit expectations, and is approaching a state of "price bubble superimposed on profit bubble". Financial technology company Fiserv is working with
Affected by this news, the stock rose by more than 5% during the session as a large U.S. bank negotiated to sell its payment infrastructure business responsible for debit card transactions. Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Crinetics Pharmaceuticals jointly announced on Monday that Vertex Pharmaceuticals will spend $10 billion to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals and acquire a number of drugs for the treatment of rare endocrine diseases. After the news was announced, Vertex Pharmaceuticals' shares fell slightly by nearly 1%, while Klinek Pharmaceuticals' shares nearly doubled. Deutsche Bank upgraded First Solar to buy from neutral, sending shares of the photovoltaic module maker up nearly 3%. The bank listed three major reasons for bargain hunting, including the possibility of adjustments to international trade policies. Technology giant Samsung announced mixed quarterly financial results overnight. Investors have reduced their AI-related positions, and chip stocks collectively fell before the market opened. Micron Technology (Micron) and Lam Research (Lam Research) both fell 5%. Shares of electric vehicle company Rivian fell 9%. The company announced revenue and delivery guidance that were higher than the FactSet market consensus, but also announced plans to issue 75 million new shares in a large-scale financing. The weight of the Korean stock market is concentrated on semiconductor companies, and the global chip sell-off has dragged down the market. Korea's Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) fell more than 4%; the iShares MSCI Korea ETF (ticker EWY) fell 4.6% in premarket. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed