U.S. stock market pre-market: Three major stock index futures were mixed, Samsung's earnings report caused technology stocks to weaken again
The futures of the three major stock indexes were mixed, and the trends of major European indexes were divergent; Samsung Electronics' performance triggered a sell-off in technology stocks, and chip stocks and optical communication stocks generally fell before the market opened; a former Federal Reserve official said that there is a high probability of starting to raise interest rates within the year.
Before the market opened on Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, while the major European indexes were divergent. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.89%, Dow futures rose 0.26%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.07%. In terms of commodities, Brent crude oil rose 0.76% to US$72.54/barrel; WTI crude oil rose 0.66% to US$69.00/barrel. Spot gold rose 0.01% to $4,164.71 an ounce. Spot silver fell 0.67% to $61.67. In terms of individual stocks, star technology stocks were mixed before the market opened, with Nvidia falling more than 2%, AMD falling more than 4%, and Microsoft rising 1.66%. Popular Chinese concept stocks weakened slightly before the market opened, with Alibaba and Xpeng Group falling more than 1%. Semiconductor equipment and materials weakened before the market opened, with Applied Materials, Lam Group and Kelei falling more than 5%. AI application software stocks strengthened before the market opened, with Figma rising 5%, ServiceNow rising more than 3%, and Palantir rising more than 2%. Samsung's second-quarter profit surged 19 times year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI, but was only 6% higher than analysts' expectations. Its Seoul-listed share price once plunged 10%, dragging down peers such as SK Hynix and Japan's Kioxia. Disappointment spread in U.S. premarket trading, with shares of Micron Technology Inc., SanDisk Inc. and other semiconductor companies falling as investors reassessed expectations for companies tied to a boom in artificial intelligence spending. AI bubble warning upgrade? Survey: More than half of the respondents want to "switch" from technology stocks to traditional economic stocks Growing concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence rally are prompting more investors to turn to traditional economy stocks, according to the latest Markets Pulse (MLIV) survey. In a new poll conducted from June 22 to July 2, 53% of 221 respondents said they tended to buy more traditional company stocks in the last six months of the year and cash in some gains from the rise in technology stocks. The results reflect concerns in the current market that some companies at the heart of artificial intelligence development have become overvalued and may face the risk of a pullback once large companies reduce their billions of dollars in investment in this new technology. Judging from recent data, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen back in the past two weeks, after almost doubling from the end of March to the end of June; South Korea's benchmark stock index Kospi, with its main weight concentrated on two semiconductor companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, also experienced a correction after a sharp rise. These changes have made participants in the MLIV survey become more cautious about the prospects of the two indexes in the second half of the year: only 34% believe that Kospi is likely to see a trend reversal, and 22% said that SOX may have a similar situation. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, "With the semiconductor sector performing strongly and showing signs of profit-taking, investors are turning to other sectors that may benefit from the economic recovery, such as industrial stocks." Former Fed official Bullard: There is a high probability of raising interest rates within the year, with September becoming a key window Jim Bullard, currently dean of the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University and former St. Louis Fed President, recently stated that even if the Fed chooses to stay on hold at its interest rate meeting in July, there is a high probability that it will start tightening operations later this year. Bullard believes that the current inflation level remains high and the September interest rate meeting is a key window for the next round of interest rate hikes. He also questioned that the increase in production capacity brought by AI will not be able to reverse the main line of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the short term. He also pointed out two positive factors that can ease inflationary pressure: bond market pricing reflects that the peak inflation has passed, coupled with the recent continued decline in international oil prices, the related cooling effect will gradually be transmitted to inflation statistics in the coming months, leaving a wait-and-see buffer period for the Federal Reserve. But Bullard emphasized that the two types of short-term benefits are not enough to replace active interest rate hikes. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz renewed? Qatar LNG cargo ship was attacked by missile, international oil prices rose slightly
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again. Brent crude and European natural gas prices both rose after a ship carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas was attacked and caught fire as it sailed out of the world's key energy chokepoint, raising concerns that supply disruptions would last longer than expected. According to Bloomberg, the Al Rekayyat liquefied natural gas carrier owned by Qatar's national shipping company Nakilat was hit about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman, early Tuesday morning. EOS Risk Group issued an alert that the attack may have been caused by an Iranian suicide drone or missile. The incident caused a fire on the ship, but there were no casualties. This is the first Qatari LNG carrier to be attacked since the conflict between the United States and Iran broke out at the end of February. At the same time, according to Xinhua News Agency, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at several merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two merchant ships were hit and seriously damaged, but there were no casualties. Affected by the above news, the price of Brent crude oil rose by more than 1% to US$72.76 per barrel, close to the US$73 mark; European natural gas prices soared by as much as 6% in a single day, the largest increase in a month. At the same time, the price of gold fell for the second consecutive day, once falling by 1.2%, falling below US$4,120 per ounce. The market's re-pricing of inflationary pressures has differentiated risk aversion logic. From Mag 7 to Lag 7: The valuations of the Big Seven have fallen. Is AI capital expenditure a thunder or a spark? In the past few months, the overall market performance of the "Mag 7" that previously led the US stock market has been significantly weaker, and some media said that it has become the "Lag 7". The industry pointed out that currently, the narratives surrounding these seven giants all point to one word: capital expenditure. Microsoft has fallen about 22% this year and just recorded its worst monthly performance since 2000; Meta has also fallen by about 14% in the past six months. However, Alphabet bucked the trend and rose about 12%, with Apple and Nvidia also recording gains. Therefore, the market did not blindly abandon all the Big Seven stocks, but selectively sold them based on their investment intensity. Companies with the most aggressive capital spending have experienced the greatest selling pressure. Industry insiders point out that over the years, the market has always appreciated share buybacks that have no business-boosting effect. Now, it is this group of companies that is investing cash in future capacity construction—the overall investment in data centers and chips behind AI this year exceeded $650 billion. The market has therefore become concerned. The industry pointed out that this round of valuation reductions for the Big Seven is based on rising profits rather than falling profits. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom have all seen their rolling price-to-earnings ratios decline over the past year as their earnings growth outpaced their share price gains. It’s a narrative-driven market right now—money is leaving capital spenders chasing the semiconductor components needed for data centers. But with enough outflows, a narrative-driven decline could reshape Big Seven stocks into an attractive valuation trough. Google invests in European nuclear fusion "unicorn" with a view to building commercial fusion power plants in the 2030s On Tuesday (July 7), Google announced that it had provided 411 million euros (approximately US$468 million) in financing to German nuclear fusion startup Proxima Fusion to support its construction of Europe's first commercial nuclear fusion power station. Nuclear fusion is the process of combining two lighter atoms, such as deuterium or tritium, into a heavier atom, releasing enormous amounts of energy. Although the technology promises to provide large amounts of energy, it has yet to be commercialized as the industry scrambles to overcome technical challenges. All current nuclear power plants use fission, which produces energy by splitting atoms. Google's investment demonstrates its continued interest in the long-term use of fusion as a potential source of abundant, carbon-free and stable energy. Currently, Proxima is valued at US$2.7 billion.
It is understood that Proxima is developing a fusion technology called a "stellarator", which is one of the few fusion methods currently available. The company hopes to put its experimental device - a proof-of-concept precursor to a commercial power station - into operation in the early 2030s. The company also said construction of the commercial power plant is targeted for the late 2030s. Blackstone launches 6 billion pound real estate platform exit plan, private equity withdrawal window is gradually opening? According to people familiar with the matter, Indurent, a subsidiary of the American Blackstone Group, has begun to contact investors to prepare for future sales or listing in London. The valuation of this transaction may reach 6 billion pounds (about 8 billion US dollars), and it is expected to take 18 months to officially land. British real estate company Indurent was formed in February 2024 by the merger of two entities of Blackstone - Industrials REIT and St Modwen Logistics. Under the leadership of Blackstone, the company has invested approximately 2 billion pounds in development and acquisitions. The market generally believes that the £6 billion valuation reflects Indurent's continued growth in asset size and is in line with the growth in warehousing transactions brought about by the UK's recent e-commerce and supply chain reshoring trends. However, Blackstone did not disclose specific valuation calculation methods. Secondly, according to market data, companies that start exit preparations 12 to 24 months in advance tend to achieve higher valuation improvements. Blackstone’s estimated preparation time of 18 months is in line with the general laws of the market. In addition, industry insiders pointed out that as expectations for a downward interest rate rise, the narrowing of capitalization rates in the UK may lead to an increase in property valuations, which provides macro-level support for logistics assets seeking to exit. Bernstein raises ASML target price to $2,623: AI production expansion drives demand for advanced lithography upwards Bernstein’s latest research report believes that the expansion of advanced logic chips and DRAM production capacity driven by artificial intelligence is significantly increasing ASML’s equipment demand. In particular, high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography (High NA EUV) technology is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale application in memory chip manufacturing. The agency maintained ASML's "outperform" rating and raised its U.S. stock target price from $1,971 to $2,623. Analyst David Dai said that the expansion of production brought by AI has exceeded previous expectations, and Bernstein has therefore significantly raised ASML's revenue forecast. The report points out that high-NA EUV may be adopted first by DRAM manufacturers rather than advanced logic chip manufacturers. The core reason is that the exposure cost of DRAM manufacturing is relatively lower and the introduction of new technologies is more economical. Over the past year, ASML's stock price has risen by 123%, driven by the expansion of AI applications and improved expectations for semiconductor capital expenditures. Bernstein believes that the simultaneous expansion of production in the advanced logic and storage fields will continue to gain upward momentum for the company's orders, revenue and profit expectations. Wall Street overall also maintained an optimistic view. LSEG data shows that all 19 analysts currently covering ASML have a "buy" or "strong buy" rating. The market's subsequent attention will focus on the actual introduction pace of high-NA EUV in the DRAM field, and whether AI-related capital expenditures can continue to be converted into equipment orders. (
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again. Brent crude and European natural gas prices both rose after a ship carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas was attacked and caught fire as it sailed out of the world's key energy chokepoint, raising concerns that supply disruptions would last longer than expected. According to Bloomberg, the Al Rekayyat liquefied natural gas carrier owned by Qatar's national shipping company Nakilat was hit about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman, early Tuesday morning. EOS Risk Group issued an alert that the attack may have been caused by an Iranian suicide drone or missile. The incident caused a fire on the ship, but there were no casualties. This is the first Qatari LNG carrier to be attacked since the conflict between the United States and Iran broke out at the end of February. At the same time, according to Xinhua News Agency, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at several merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two merchant ships were hit and seriously damaged, but there were no casualties. Affected by the above news, the price of Brent crude oil rose by more than 1% to US$72.76 per barrel, close to the US$73 mark; European natural gas prices soared by as much as 6% in a single day, the largest increase in a month. At the same time, the price of gold fell for the second consecutive day, once falling by 1.2%, falling below US$4,120 per ounce. The market's re-pricing of inflationary pressures has differentiated risk aversion logic. From Mag 7 to Lag 7: The valuations of the Big Seven have fallen. Is AI capital expenditure a thunder or a spark? In the past few months, the overall market performance of the "Mag 7" that previously led the US stock market has been significantly weaker, and some media said that it has become the "Lag 7". The industry pointed out that currently, the narratives surrounding these seven giants all point to one word: capital expenditure. Microsoft has fallen about 22% this year and just recorded its worst monthly performance since 2000; Meta has also fallen by about 14% in the past six months. However, Alphabet bucked the trend and rose about 12%, with Apple and Nvidia also recording gains. Therefore, the market did not blindly abandon all the Big Seven stocks, but selectively sold them based on their investment intensity. Companies with the most aggressive capital spending have experienced the greatest selling pressure. Industry insiders point out that over the years, the market has always appreciated share buybacks that have no business-boosting effect. Now, it is this group of companies that is investing cash in future capacity construction—the overall investment in data centers and chips behind AI this year exceeded $650 billion. The market has therefore become concerned. The industry pointed out that this round of valuation reductions for the Big Seven is based on rising profits rather than falling profits. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom have all seen their rolling price-to-earnings ratios decline over the past year as their earnings growth outpaced their share price gains. It’s a narrative-driven market right now—money is leaving capital spenders chasing the semiconductor components needed for data centers. But with enough outflows, a narrative-driven decline could reshape Big Seven stocks into an attractive valuation trough. Google invests in European nuclear fusion "unicorn" with a view to building commercial fusion power plants in the 2030s On Tuesday (July 7), Google announced that it had provided 411 million euros (approximately US$468 million) in financing to German nuclear fusion startup Proxima Fusion to support its construction of Europe's first commercial nuclear fusion power station. Nuclear fusion is the process of combining two lighter atoms, such as deuterium or tritium, into a heavier atom, releasing enormous amounts of energy. Although the technology promises to provide large amounts of energy, it has yet to be commercialized as the industry scrambles to overcome technical challenges. All current nuclear power plants use fission, which produces energy by splitting atoms. Google's investment demonstrates its continued interest in the long-term use of fusion as a potential source of abundant, carbon-free and stable energy. Currently, Proxima is valued at US$2.7 billion.
It is understood that Proxima is developing a fusion technology called a "stellarator", which is one of the few fusion methods currently available. The company hopes to put its experimental device - a proof-of-concept precursor to a commercial power station - into operation in the early 2030s. The company also said construction of the commercial power plant is targeted for the late 2030s. Blackstone launches 6 billion pound real estate platform exit plan, private equity withdrawal window is gradually opening? According to people familiar with the matter, Indurent, a subsidiary of the American Blackstone Group, has begun to contact investors to prepare for future sales or listing in London. The valuation of this transaction may reach 6 billion pounds (about 8 billion US dollars), and it is expected to take 18 months to officially land. British real estate company Indurent was formed in February 2024 by the merger of two entities of Blackstone - Industrials REIT and St Modwen Logistics. Under the leadership of Blackstone, the company has invested approximately 2 billion pounds in development and acquisitions. The market generally believes that the £6 billion valuation reflects Indurent's continued growth in asset size and is in line with the growth in warehousing transactions brought about by the UK's recent e-commerce and supply chain reshoring trends. However, Blackstone did not disclose specific valuation calculation methods. Secondly, according to market data, companies that start exit preparations 12 to 24 months in advance tend to achieve higher valuation improvements. Blackstone’s estimated preparation time of 18 months is in line with the general laws of the market. In addition, industry insiders pointed out that as expectations for a downward interest rate rise, the narrowing of capitalization rates in the UK may lead to an increase in property valuations, which provides macro-level support for logistics assets seeking to exit. Bernstein raises ASML target price to $2,623: AI production expansion drives demand for advanced lithography upwards Bernstein’s latest research report believes that the expansion of advanced logic chips and DRAM production capacity driven by artificial intelligence is significantly increasing ASML’s equipment demand. In particular, high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography (High NA EUV) technology is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale application in memory chip manufacturing. The agency maintained ASML's "outperform" rating and raised its U.S. stock target price from $1,971 to $2,623. Analyst David Dai said that the expansion of production brought by AI has exceeded previous expectations, and Bernstein has therefore significantly raised ASML's revenue forecast. The report points out that high-NA EUV may be adopted first by DRAM manufacturers rather than advanced logic chip manufacturers. The core reason is that the exposure cost of DRAM manufacturing is relatively lower and the introduction of new technologies is more economical. Over the past year, ASML's stock price has risen by 123%, driven by the expansion of AI applications and improved expectations for semiconductor capital expenditures. Bernstein believes that the simultaneous expansion of production in the advanced logic and storage fields will continue to gain upward momentum for the company's orders, revenue and profit expectations. Wall Street overall also maintained an optimistic view. LSEG data shows that all 19 analysts currently covering ASML have a "buy" or "strong buy" rating. The market's subsequent attention will focus on the actual introduction pace of high-NA EUV in the DRAM field, and whether AI-related capital expenditures can continue to be converted into equipment orders. (