U.S. stock market pre-market: Futures on the three major stock indexes rose and fell mixed. Service industry PMI and financial reports from consumer giants took over. SK Hynix’s IPO on Friday became the focus of the audience
The futures of the three major stock indexes were mixed, with major European indexes generally falling, and chip and optical communication stocks generally rising before the market opened; US stocks ushered in a "calm week" amid concerns about inflation, with the PMI of the service industry and the financial reports of consumer giants taking over. SK Hynix's IPO on Friday became the focus of the audience.
Before the market opened on Monday, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and major European indexes generally fell. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.15%, Dow futures were down 0.11%, and S&P 500 futures were up 0.40%. In terms of commodities, Brent crude oil fell 0.68% to US$71.63/barrel; WTI crude oil fell 0.64% to US$68.25/barrel. Spot gold fell 0.64% to $4,147.98 an ounce. Spot silver fell 0.61% to $61.99. In terms of individual stocks, storage and semiconductor stocks rebounded across the board. SanDisk and Western Digital rose more than 5%, Micron Technology and ASML rose more than 3%, Applied Materials rose more than 3%, and Intel rose nearly 3%; the triple long semiconductor index ETF $SOXL rose more than 8%; Optical communication concept stocks rebounded collectively before the market opened, with Marvell Technology rising by more than 4%, Nokia and Credo Technology rising by more than 3%; Three times long South Korea ETF KORU rose more than 15%; South Korea ETF $EWY rose nearly 6%; Cryptocurrency concept stocks continued to rise, with Strategy rising by more than 4% and Circle rising by more than 5%. After a holiday-shortened trading week packed with labor market data and a surprise non-farm payrolls report, investors are heading into a period of relative calm in the coming week. Monday is likely to be the most interesting day on the economic calendar, with a series of index readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) giving investors a sense of the state of the U.S. services economy. In terms of corporate financial reports, the financial reports of PepsiCo (PEP.US) on Thursday and Delta Air Lines (DALUS) on Friday will be the focus this week. PepsiCo's results should give investors some insight into the state of the U.S. consumer, while Delta Air Lines will provide another look at the lasting impact of the war with Iran and the resulting energy crisis. SK Hynix is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 10 (Friday). The US$29 billion listing plan may become the largest U.S. stock IPO of a foreign company in history. The trend of AI trading is changing! Morgan Stanley says: The rising momentum of chip stocks has weakened and funds will be rotated to ultra-large-scale cloud manufacturers Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks will struggle to reach new highs as investors retreat from some of the year's strongest tech trades. Meanwhile, Wilson said rising momentum in semiconductor stocks is fading as investors move money into previously underperforming sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscale cloud computing players. He pointed out that this group includes companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US) and Meta Platforms (META.US). With strong core businesses, these companies are attractive in the AI ecosystem. The strategist noted that major U.S. stock indexes will remain under pressure in the short term "as some of the largest companies in the index by market capitalization are experiencing a pullback in momentum." He added that this capital rotation will continue in "the overall volatile stock market environment." As major cloud computing manufacturers continue to have strong demand for hardware equipment, the supply of superimposed chips is tight, directly pushing up the profits of chip companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks U.S. chip companies, has risen by 123% since September last year. A basket of ultra-large-scale cloud computing vendors compiled by UBS Group AG fell 2% over the same period. Wilson said that in the short term, he is more optimistic about hyperscale cloud computing companies rather than semiconductor-related stocks. He also predicts that these hyperscale cloud computing companies may start to lower their capital expenditure plan expectations in the future, given the recent underperformance of their stock prices. Wilson maintained his year-end target for the S&P 500 at 8,000, which would imply room for about 7% upside from current levels. Earlier this year, he accurately predicted that U.S. stocks would shrug off the impact of geopolitical risks, supported by strong corporate earnings. Oil price changes: OPEC+ production increase has not yet been implemented, the world has begun to worry about oversupply
The impact on crude oil supply caused by the US-Iran War has been quickly reversed, and with the recovery of exports from the Middle East, OPEC+ is shifting from a shortage narrative to oversupply concerns, and is once again under pressure to coordinate prices and quotas. According to Bloomberg, key OPEC+ members reached an agreement on a new round of slight increase in production quotas last Sunday, allowing member states to gradually increase production as shipping and exports in the Strait of Hormuz gradually return to normal. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the organization has approved a total of more than 900,000 barrels per day of production replenishment. However, many institutions pointed out that some of these increases may be difficult to fully realize at the implementation level. At the same time, major consumer markets such as Asia have begun to show signs of periodic supply easing. Some forecasts believe that even though the current surplus may have short-term attributes, there is still a risk that output growth will exceed demand growth in the medium term. This change is pushing rebalancing pressure on global oil markets back to Saudi Arabia. The market generally believes that if the supply easing continues further, Saudi Arabia may be forced to slow down its own production increase pace, or even re-promote a broader production reduction coordination mechanism to avoid increasing pressure on the price side. Morgan Stanley: The U.S. tariff framework shifts to Sections 301 and 232, and the tax rate may stabilize at 9%-10% Morgan Stanley’s latest report points out that U.S. tariff policy is shifting from a temporary tool to a more legally stable framework of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. With the Section 122 tariffs set to expire on July 24 and the Section 301 hearing scheduled for July 7, the U.S. tariff system will enter a critical window for reconstruction. The bank predicts that the statutory effective tariff rate will stabilize at 9%-10% in the next few months, which is more regular than the previous high-dispersion system based on IEEPA, but industry coverage, exemptions, bilateral agreements, refunds and import structures will still affect the actual tax burden. Morgan Stanley believes that Section 301 will become a broad, country-level basic tariff tool. The 301 investigation on forced labor issues plans to impose additional tariffs on imported goods from 60 economies: the tax rate for economies with relevant import bans or reciprocity commitments is 10%, and the rest are 12.5%. However, USMCA compliant products, products covered by Section 232, and some textiles, information materials, etc. are exempted. Section 301 helps maintain the tariff floor and bargaining chips, but it is difficult to promote the reshoring of large-scale manufacturing on its own. Article 232 will assume the function of targeted industrial policy, focusing on strategic areas such as steel, aluminum, copper and its derivatives, automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, machinery, robots, and aerospace. Tariffs on metal derivatives will be levied on the full customs declaration value of the product rather than just the metal content. Morgan Stanley estimates that expanding coverage will subject approximately $150 billion of goods to a 25% tariff and increase the overall tax rate by up to about 1 percentage point. The actual burden of pharmaceutical tariffs depends on factors such as generic drugs, most-favored nation pricing, local investment commitments, and origin. In terms of refunds, the customs has opened the application channel. Review and payment usually take 60-90 days, but refunds are not completed automatically. Morgan Stanley estimates that the upper limit of refunds will be about US$133 billion. Under the neutral scenario, about 60% of eligible tariffs, or US$84 billion, can be refunded, and in the high scenario, about US$112 billion. The decline in tariff uncertainty will marginally support capital expenditures, but the bank emphasized that current investment is still concentrated in AI, semiconductors, data centers and power infrastructure, and evidence of the return of traditional manufacturing industries is still limited; the subsequent 232 investigation on machinery and robots will be an important node to test whether tariffs can truly expand manufacturing investment. Is Google going to expand its strategy? Gemini 3.5 Pro is rumored to be released on July 17, with the front end crushing Fable 5 Google has a big trump card in the big model competition. According to people familiar with the matter, Gemini 3.5 Pro will be officially released on July 17. Its front-end and visual code generation capabilities are said to have improved by leaps and bounds, suppressing Anthropic's Fable 5 in multiple tests, but it still lags behind its opponents in hard-core reasoning and complex engineering tasks. Behind this belated flagship model is a more thorough technical reconstruction.
According to technology media Geeky Gadgets, Google DeepMind abandoned the original 2.5 Pro base and switched to new pre-training for Gemini 3.5 Pro. The release time has therefore been postponed from June 2026 to July 17. This decision was interpreted by the outside world as Google actively choosing the former between quality and speed to cope with the dual pressures of OpenAI GPT-5.6 and Anthropic Fable 5. For the market, the significance of this launch is more than the launch of a new model. Google was also revealed to be developing the image model Nano Banana Pro based on this new base, targeting OpenAI's GPT-Image 2, which means that Google is trying to simultaneously develop text code and image generation, further intensifying competition in the AI industry. "I would rather not make money than touch Musk", American retail investors begin to "clear mines" SpaceX With SpaceX officially included in mainstream indexes such as the Nasdaq 100 this week, a value-driven portfolio "mining" operation is quietly spreading among U.S. retail investors. After SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history in June, its stock price rose sharply and then fell by more than 24%. But what makes some investors even more anxious is not the stock price fluctuation itself, but the passive investment mechanism that is forcing the company into millions of retirement accounts. According to Bloomberg, a number of index providers have specially revised relevant rules to accelerate the inclusion of SpaceX, a move that has triggered widespread criticism. At the same time, at least $5.4 billion in index-tracking funds will passively buy the stock, providing support for the stock price that is under pressure. Investors critical of Musk face a structural dilemma: The market value of his companies has become too large to escape. Tesla currently accounts for about 2% of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and more than 3% of the Invesco QQQ Trust. SpaceX has a market value of approximately US$2.1 trillion, approximately 1.4 times that of Tesla. After its listing, SpaceX became the top camp in the US stock market almost overnight. As SpaceX is officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index after the close of this week, and has previously joined FTSE Russell and MSCI indexes, billions of dollars in passive funds will be mechanically bought. Emily Green, head of wealth management at wealth management firm Ellevest, said she has received numerous inquiries from clients wanting to exclude SpaceX. "We wouldn't be having this conversation if it weren't for him," she said, likening the current anti-Musk sentiment to the public backlash Meta faced after the 2016 election. Ming-Chi Kuo reveals the latest Apple foldable phone: Shipments are obviously insufficient or hunger marketing is back again Apple's planned foldable phone appears to be experiencing shipping challenges, which may slow down the official launch of the product and trigger a series of supply issues. The latest prediction from well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo points out that Apple's foldable iPhone may follow the release rhythm of the 2017 iPhone X. Although it will be released together with the new iPhone of that year, pre-orders and offline sales will not be open for several months. One reason for the insufficient shipments of foldable iPhones is the difference in technical processes. Apple is preparing to equip the foldable iPhone’s outer screen with Samsung’s most advanced 10-bit native M16 OLED screen, while the inner screen will consist of an older M14 OLED panel. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the key to judging the sales prospects of foldable iPhones lies between the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. By then, the impact of the year-end sales season and new product launch craze should have faded, while Apple's early production issues and supply constraints should also have been significantly improved. But before that happens, he expects demand for foldable iPhones to remain strong as supply exceeds demand, triggering a "scalper premium" where the resale price may be 50% to 100% higher than the official price. He also revealed that the price of the foldable iPhone may be around US$2,300 to US$2,500. (
The impact on crude oil supply caused by the US-Iran War has been quickly reversed, and with the recovery of exports from the Middle East, OPEC+ is shifting from a shortage narrative to oversupply concerns, and is once again under pressure to coordinate prices and quotas. According to Bloomberg, key OPEC+ members reached an agreement on a new round of slight increase in production quotas last Sunday, allowing member states to gradually increase production as shipping and exports in the Strait of Hormuz gradually return to normal. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the organization has approved a total of more than 900,000 barrels per day of production replenishment. However, many institutions pointed out that some of these increases may be difficult to fully realize at the implementation level. At the same time, major consumer markets such as Asia have begun to show signs of periodic supply easing. Some forecasts believe that even though the current surplus may have short-term attributes, there is still a risk that output growth will exceed demand growth in the medium term. This change is pushing rebalancing pressure on global oil markets back to Saudi Arabia. The market generally believes that if the supply easing continues further, Saudi Arabia may be forced to slow down its own production increase pace, or even re-promote a broader production reduction coordination mechanism to avoid increasing pressure on the price side. Morgan Stanley: The U.S. tariff framework shifts to Sections 301 and 232, and the tax rate may stabilize at 9%-10% Morgan Stanley’s latest report points out that U.S. tariff policy is shifting from a temporary tool to a more legally stable framework of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. With the Section 122 tariffs set to expire on July 24 and the Section 301 hearing scheduled for July 7, the U.S. tariff system will enter a critical window for reconstruction. The bank predicts that the statutory effective tariff rate will stabilize at 9%-10% in the next few months, which is more regular than the previous high-dispersion system based on IEEPA, but industry coverage, exemptions, bilateral agreements, refunds and import structures will still affect the actual tax burden. Morgan Stanley believes that Section 301 will become a broad, country-level basic tariff tool. The 301 investigation on forced labor issues plans to impose additional tariffs on imported goods from 60 economies: the tax rate for economies with relevant import bans or reciprocity commitments is 10%, and the rest are 12.5%. However, USMCA compliant products, products covered by Section 232, and some textiles, information materials, etc. are exempted. Section 301 helps maintain the tariff floor and bargaining chips, but it is difficult to promote the reshoring of large-scale manufacturing on its own. Article 232 will assume the function of targeted industrial policy, focusing on strategic areas such as steel, aluminum, copper and its derivatives, automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, machinery, robots, and aerospace. Tariffs on metal derivatives will be levied on the full customs declaration value of the product rather than just the metal content. Morgan Stanley estimates that expanding coverage will subject approximately $150 billion of goods to a 25% tariff and increase the overall tax rate by up to about 1 percentage point. The actual burden of pharmaceutical tariffs depends on factors such as generic drugs, most-favored nation pricing, local investment commitments, and origin. In terms of refunds, the customs has opened the application channel. Review and payment usually take 60-90 days, but refunds are not completed automatically. Morgan Stanley estimates that the upper limit of refunds will be about US$133 billion. Under the neutral scenario, about 60% of eligible tariffs, or US$84 billion, can be refunded, and in the high scenario, about US$112 billion. The decline in tariff uncertainty will marginally support capital expenditures, but the bank emphasized that current investment is still concentrated in AI, semiconductors, data centers and power infrastructure, and evidence of the return of traditional manufacturing industries is still limited; the subsequent 232 investigation on machinery and robots will be an important node to test whether tariffs can truly expand manufacturing investment. Is Google going to expand its strategy? Gemini 3.5 Pro is rumored to be released on July 17, with the front end crushing Fable 5 Google has a big trump card in the big model competition. According to people familiar with the matter, Gemini 3.5 Pro will be officially released on July 17. Its front-end and visual code generation capabilities are said to have improved by leaps and bounds, suppressing Anthropic's Fable 5 in multiple tests, but it still lags behind its opponents in hard-core reasoning and complex engineering tasks. Behind this belated flagship model is a more thorough technical reconstruction.
According to technology media Geeky Gadgets, Google DeepMind abandoned the original 2.5 Pro base and switched to new pre-training for Gemini 3.5 Pro. The release time has therefore been postponed from June 2026 to July 17. This decision was interpreted by the outside world as Google actively choosing the former between quality and speed to cope with the dual pressures of OpenAI GPT-5.6 and Anthropic Fable 5. For the market, the significance of this launch is more than the launch of a new model. Google was also revealed to be developing the image model Nano Banana Pro based on this new base, targeting OpenAI's GPT-Image 2, which means that Google is trying to simultaneously develop text code and image generation, further intensifying competition in the AI industry. "I would rather not make money than touch Musk", American retail investors begin to "clear mines" SpaceX With SpaceX officially included in mainstream indexes such as the Nasdaq 100 this week, a value-driven portfolio "mining" operation is quietly spreading among U.S. retail investors. After SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history in June, its stock price rose sharply and then fell by more than 24%. But what makes some investors even more anxious is not the stock price fluctuation itself, but the passive investment mechanism that is forcing the company into millions of retirement accounts. According to Bloomberg, a number of index providers have specially revised relevant rules to accelerate the inclusion of SpaceX, a move that has triggered widespread criticism. At the same time, at least $5.4 billion in index-tracking funds will passively buy the stock, providing support for the stock price that is under pressure. Investors critical of Musk face a structural dilemma: The market value of his companies has become too large to escape. Tesla currently accounts for about 2% of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and more than 3% of the Invesco QQQ Trust. SpaceX has a market value of approximately US$2.1 trillion, approximately 1.4 times that of Tesla. After its listing, SpaceX became the top camp in the US stock market almost overnight. As SpaceX is officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index after the close of this week, and has previously joined FTSE Russell and MSCI indexes, billions of dollars in passive funds will be mechanically bought. Emily Green, head of wealth management at wealth management firm Ellevest, said she has received numerous inquiries from clients wanting to exclude SpaceX. "We wouldn't be having this conversation if it weren't for him," she said, likening the current anti-Musk sentiment to the public backlash Meta faced after the 2016 election. Ming-Chi Kuo reveals the latest Apple foldable phone: Shipments are obviously insufficient or hunger marketing is back again Apple's planned foldable phone appears to be experiencing shipping challenges, which may slow down the official launch of the product and trigger a series of supply issues. The latest prediction from well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo points out that Apple's foldable iPhone may follow the release rhythm of the 2017 iPhone X. Although it will be released together with the new iPhone of that year, pre-orders and offline sales will not be open for several months. One reason for the insufficient shipments of foldable iPhones is the difference in technical processes. Apple is preparing to equip the foldable iPhone’s outer screen with Samsung’s most advanced 10-bit native M16 OLED screen, while the inner screen will consist of an older M14 OLED panel. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the key to judging the sales prospects of foldable iPhones lies between the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. By then, the impact of the year-end sales season and new product launch craze should have faded, while Apple's early production issues and supply constraints should also have been significantly improved. But before that happens, he expects demand for foldable iPhones to remain strong as supply exceeds demand, triggering a "scalper premium" where the resale price may be 50% to 100% higher than the official price. He also revealed that the price of the foldable iPhone may be around US$2,300 to US$2,500. (