Semi Analysis issued another report: Meta computing power procurement will accelerate and capital expenditures may increase significantly next year!
[SemiAnalysis issued another report: Meta computing power procurement will accelerate and capital expenditures may increase significantly next year! 】SemiAnalysis, a well-known research organization in the technology industry, emphasized in its latest report that computing power demand is far from reaching its peak. It pointed out that Meta’s computing power construction will be further carried out, predicting that its capital expenditure next year will be astonishingly high.
Earlier this month, it was reported that Meta planned to launch a cloud infrastructure business to sell AI computing power and model access to external customers. The rumor sparked investor concerns about a computing power glut, but analysts disagreed. SemiAnalysis, a well-known research organization in the technology industry, also emphasized in its latest report that computing power demand is far from reaching its peak. It pointed out that Meta’s computing power construction will be further carried out, predicting that its capital expenditure next year will be astonishingly high, and the market does not need to worry that it will cannibalize the share of new cloud competitors. SemiAnalysis analysis pointed out that Meta's data center and computing procurement will accelerate rather than slow down, and Meta will become an important source of performance growth for new cloud companies such as CoreWeave and Nebius. Earlier, affected by the news that Meta would sell computing power, the stock prices of CoreWeave and Nebius both fell by more than 6% that day, but now CoreWeave has begun to rebound, which means that investors are re-examining the impact of Meta's business changes on the industry structure. SemiAnalysis reported last weekend that Nvidia's Kyber NVL144 rack architecture may encounter delays, but Nvidia quickly denied it. Meta has signed deals for nearly 10GW of total capacity since the start of 2024, with more than 5GW of data center contracts signed in the first half of this year alone, spanning cloud and colocation services. Much of this new capacity is now being achieved through new cloud companies such as CoreWeave and Nebius. SemiAnalysis cited four high-profit application cases to support Meta's statement that it will further expand computing power procurement. The first is Meta’s super-intelligent laboratory. SemiAnalysis stated that the laboratory is still the main driving force for Meta’s new computing power, and Meta has not given up on cutting-edge model training, which means that it needs continuous computing power support. The third is a possible agreement between Meta and Anthropic. SemiAnalysis said Meta is negotiating to obtain the rights to Claude’s models and list them on Meta’s platform, similar to Amazon’s Bedrock agreement. SemiAnalysis predicted the agreement could amount to a computing deal worth about $10 billion, but neither Meta nor Anthropic has officially confirmed the talks. Finally, there is the so-called "SpaceX-style" on-demand computing transaction, which is Musk's strategy of providing large-scale computing services at high prices and being able to flexibly sign short-term contracts. SemiAnalysis estimates that Meta could generate more than $10 billion in annual revenue by providing only 200 megawatts of computing power to external customers. According to SemiAnalysis, the last model cannot be realized by traditional new cloud companies, because the financing model of new cloud companies requires multi-year order commitments from customers, and Meta has strong own funds, so it has huge advantages in pricing and flexibility. There are only a handful of companies that can compete with Meta in this way. In addition to SpaceX, there is also Oracle. However, SemiAnalysis believes that Oracle has failed to take full advantage of its advantages. In contrast, Meta has the determination and means to quickly build data centers. Its ultra-high-speed tent data center is becoming the template for building data centers in the United States. Speculations about whether Meta's purchases will accelerate may be verified in its earnings report later this month. In addition, CoreWeave's August financial report may also provide clues. Its management's comments on the remaining performance obligation reserves and transaction progress will indicate whether Meta's procurement will accelerate or put pressure on New Cloud Enterprise's own orders. (