The chip sector fell 5%, but Nvidia bucked the trend and closed higher, and the options market showed bullish signals
Jin Qilin analyst research report , authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you tap potential theme opportunities! The Nasdaq fell 1.2%, chip stocks were bleeding, SanDisk fell more than 7%, SpaceX fell 6.83%, and international oil prices rose sharply. After Asia fell, Europe fell! Chip stock selling wave sweeps the world, Wall Street analysts discuss U.S. memory chip and semiconductor stocks collectively fell sharply NVIDIA's stock price bucked the trend and stabilized, and bullish bets in the options market have heated up significantly. Traders are betting that the AI chip giant is about to usher in a rebound. On Tuesday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF fell more than 5%, but Nvidia's stock price closed up tenaciously, showing obvious relative strength. At the same time, options market data shows that the trading volume of NVIDIA call options on that day exceeded 1.5 million. Compared with less than 690,000 put options, the number of call options purchased was more than twice that of put options. The above-mentioned long bets occurred at a sensitive node when Nvidia's stock price was under pressure and investor sentiment was divided, and may have important guiding significance for the market direction. NVIDIA's stock price is currently hovering around $200, down about 17% from its May high, and its gain during the year has narrowed to about 4%. Negative report sparks controversy, stock price still holds key mark The trigger for this round of options movement was a report released by the research organization SemiAnalysis. Wall Street News mentioned that the semiconductor industry research organization SemiAnalysis published six consecutive tweets on the X platform, revealing that Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 rack architecture has encountered major delays and multiple cancellation decisions. The report states that Nvidia is at least a year behind schedule in mass production of its next-generation server rack products, but Nvidia has disputed the content of the report. Although the news had a certain impact on market sentiment, Nvidia's stock price has not been able to effectively break through $200 since the end of last month. The focus of some investors has shifted to other AI-related sectors, especially segmented tracks such as memory chip manufacturers. However, prices near the $200 level have shown strong signs of support over the past few days, with the stock being supported by the 200-day moving average. Large institutional-level bets draw attention According to ThinkorSwim data, the options market also showed a similar bullish bias on Monday. The total premium for Nvidia options on that day was approximately US$600 million, about two-thirds of which were related to call options. The volume of call option purchases was almost three times that of put options. One set of transactions stands out. It appears that a series of operations initiated by a single trader resulted in the purchase of $3.5 million in call options with a strike price of $200 expiring at the end of July. Based on the unit price of about US$7 at the time of transaction, these contracts require Nvidia's stock price to rise by about 5.5% before the end of the month to make a profit. In contrast, the option structure of the semiconductor ETF SMH presents a completely opposite look. The trading volume of put options overwhelmed the call options at a ratio of nearly 4 to 1. Traders bought about 33,000 put options, while the volume of call options was only about 7,300, reflecting that the market is still cautious about the overall trend of the chip sector. Short-term expiring contracts reveal where traders are betting According to SpotGamma data, as of press time, the top five contracts in NVIDIA options trading volume are all call options expiring on Wednesday, indicating that traders are betting that the stock price will rise within a very short time window. The most active one is the call option with an exercise price of US$200, with nearly 170,000 transactions and a total premium of approximately US$11 million. This option layout, which focuses on recent months and places deep bets on the $200 mark, indicates that some traders expect Nvidia's stabilizing trend in the past two days to evolve into a clearer upward trend. It is worth noting that Nvidia’s current stock price is still about 17% lower than its May historical high, and its growth performance during the year has significantly lagged behind previous market expectations. Whether the bullish signals in the options market can ultimately be realized as a substantial breakthrough in stock prices remains to be tested by the market.