Tianfeng Strategy Wu Kaida: Defense of Gold 4000

Tianfeng Strategy Wu Kaida: Defense of Gold 4000.

This week (June 26, 2026 to July 3, 2026), U.S. non-farm employment growth in June was significantly lower than expected, and signs of cooling in the labor market have increased. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm employment increased by 57,000 in June, lower than the 110,000 expected by a Reuters survey.

At the same time, the number of new jobs in May was revised down to 129,000 from the previous 172,000. The total number of new jobs in April and May was revised down by 74,000 from the previously announced value.

From a structural perspective, non-agricultural employment in the private sector increased by 49,000 in June, and non-agricultural employment in the manufacturing industry increased by 3,000. Manufacturing employment has not yet deteriorated significantly.

The slowdown in employment data and the downward revision of the previous value have made the non-farm data more consistent with the results of other labor market surveys such as small business hiring plans, which may reflect that the U.S. job market is gradually returning to a "low hiring, low firing" state.

In terms of precious metals, both gold and silver prices recorded increases this week, with silver being relatively more elastic. As of July 3, 2026, the spot price of London gold was US$4,174.19 per ounce, up 2.09% this week; the spot price of London silver was US$62.36 per ounce, up 5.45% this week.

In terms of futures, as of July 4, 2026, COMEX gold futures closed at US$4,174.60 per ounce, up 2.35% this week; COMEX silver futures closed at US$62.4 per ounce, up 5.42% this week.

We believe that the weakening non-farm payrolls may have temporarily eased the market's concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and is expected to provide some support for gold prices.

At the same time, data from the World Gold Council shows that in May 2026, the official gold reserves of global central banks increased by 41 tons, a further rebound from the scale of net gold purchases in April; gold purchasing power is still mainly concentrated in emerging market economies, with Poland and China net purchasing 18 tons and 10 tons of gold respectively.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also continued their monthly net gold purchases. The demand for gold from the official sector still provides certain support for the mid- to long-term allocation logic of gold.

Judging from the historical month effect, there may be certain differences in the return performance of $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ between different calendar months.

Calculated based on the monthly rise and fall of the Hang Seng Index since 2015, the average yields in January, April, November and December were relatively high, at 2.14%, 2.26%, 2.48% and 1.37% respectively; in May, The average yields in July, August, September and October were negative, -1.45%, -0.57%, -1.55%, -0.63% and -1.59% respectively.

The performance in August and October was relatively weak. Combined with the probability of increase, the historical winning rates in January and April may be relatively high.

Since 2015, the probability of the Hang Seng Index rising in January and April has been 75.0%, which is at a relatively high level in each month; the probability of rising in March and December is 58.3% and 54.5% respectively, showing a relatively neutral performance.

After entering July, the differentiation of the monthly effects of Hong Kong and US stocks may be more obvious.

The average return rate of the Hang Seng Index from July to October was negative, which were -0.57%, -1.55%, -0.63% and -1.59% respectively; while the average return rate of the S&P 500 in July and October was 1.52%, and only the average return rate in August and September was negative, which was -0.23% and -0.59% respectively.

From this point of view, August and September performed relatively weakly in terms of historical average yields, but the performance directions of Hong Kong and US stocks in July and October were not consistent, indicating that there are certain differences in the monthly effects of the two markets.

The relevant conclusions still need to be judged carefully based on the current market environment. 2. Overview of overseas markets The world's major equity markets generally rose this week, and risk appetite has recovered.

Against the background of easing external pressure, Germany's DAX index rose by 4.49% this week, the Nasdaq index rose by 2.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.97%, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.76%, the British FTSE 100 index rose by 1.63%, the French CAC40 index rose by 1.47%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.55%.

The performance of Hong Kong stocks is relatively leading, and the recovery of the technology growth sector may be more obvious.

The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 5.72% this week, ranking first among the major indexes; the Hang Seng Index rose 2.99%, also performing well, indicating that the Hong Kong stock market may undergo a phased recovery after the previous adjustment.

This week, the Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index rose slightly and then fell back, with overall fluctuations limited. As of July 3, 2026, the Hang Seng AH Stock Premium Index closed at 123.30, a slight increase of 0.43 points from 122.87 on June 29, with an increase of approximately 0.35% during the week.

The AH premium remains above 120, indicating that A shares still have a certain premium over H shares. (

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