Pre-market: Nasdaq futures fell 1.38% as Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was over
Oil prices surged more than 5% on Wednesday, while global stock markets and bond prices fell. Investors fled risk assets after U.S. President Trump said the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to end the Gulf conflict was "over." As of press time, the Dow futures fell 1.15%, the S&P 500 futures fell 0.92%, and the Nasdaq futures fell 1.38%. Wednesday's escalation is prompting an exodus from risk assets. Previously, the ceasefire in April and the subsequent signing of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran had led investors to believe that both sides wanted to avoid a long-term conflict. The stock market has continued to rise since the end of March, and a strong earnings season has also boosted market confidence in the economic potential of artificial intelligence. U.S. stocks are expected to extend Tuesday's losses; Tuesday's decline was mainly driven by a sell-off in chip manufacturers as the market worried about whether large-scale artificial intelligence investments could support high valuations. The VIX volatility index jumped nearly 13%, its largest one-day gain in more than a month, but it was still below its March high. Recently, the U.S. stock market has been volatile. The market is swinging between two forces, buying on dips and risk-cutting over how long the rally in semiconductor stocks and other AI-related stocks can last. Major European stock indexes fell across the board in early trading. Bank stocks and energy-intensive industries weakened, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling 0.7%. Trump's words "ceasefire is over" shocked the market Speaking ahead of a NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara, Trump added that he wanted no more contact with Tehran. "In my opinion, dealing with them is just a waste of time," he said. Brent crude rose 6.4% to trade at $79, its highest level since June 22. Earlier, Trump told the annual NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire was "over" and called it a "waste of time." Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares, said Trump's announcement "marks the most serious breakdown yet in a deal that has been fraying for weeks." "The market had been viewing the June memorandum of understanding as a durable cooling arrangement. It now appears that this complacency is fragile," she said. Chris Beauchamp, chief market strategist at IG, said: "This is obviously not what the market wants to see, and it is really a serious blow to market sentiment." "The key question is really whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open, whether we can still see ships passing through, and whether oil can continue to flow," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Bank in Singapore. Supply concerns reignite Trump's remarks came shortly after the United States launched a new round of strikes against Iran and revoked the exemption that allowed Iran to sell oil. But while peace talks have made little progress, Trump has shown no apparent willingness to return to all-out war over the past few weeks. He said he would not prevent negotiators from continuing to engage with Iran, although he expressed pessimism about such tactics. Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, said: "Trump is known for his volatility and we expect the current escalation to be temporary in nature until both sides return to the negotiating table." "There is no incentive to reignite the war before the November midterm elections," he added. Group analysts said: "The situation in the Persian Gulf has re-escalated, rekindling supply concerns." They also said: "The curve structure has also strengthened, with the near-end returning to backwardation after a recent shift to contango due to increased supply in the Persian Gulf." Skylar Montgomery Koning, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, said: "Oil prices would need to see larger fluctuations to overwhelm other factors affecting stock market performance. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran represent downside risks, but if commodity prices do not rise more sharply, it is unlikely to have a material impact on the stock market." South Korean stock market enters technical bear market
Related deals came into focus in South Korea earlier on Wednesday. South Korea's KOSPI index fell 5.35%, entering a technical bear market. The index has fallen 23% from its June high. Memory chip manufacturers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended recent losses, closing down 6.25% and 5.7% respectively. The best-performing major benchmark index this year, the index has been hit by wild swings recently. The rotation in technology stocks has intensified, with investors pulling out of semiconductor stocks and looking for technology assets with more attractive valuations. The group's share price rose 12%, the technology sector overall strengthened, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 5.2%. The broader Hang Seng Index rose 3%. Jialong Shi of Nomura Securities said that the overall rise in China's Internet sector may be due to the rebalancing of funds from the outstanding AI hardware sector to the lagging sector. Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said: "Multiple negative news flows are dragging the market down, and with no major earnings releases in the next few days to change this trend, it seems difficult for the market to find respite." While oil prices remain well below their highs above $120 a barrel at the height of the fighting, they are enough to reinject inflation risks into bond markets, especially after months of conflict have led to a decline in global oil inventories. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose for the seventh consecutive session, rising to a one-month high of 4.56%. In Europe, the 10-year government bond yields of Germany and Italy recorded the largest increase in a month, also rising to one-month highs of **3.06% and 3.9%** respectively. The UK 10-year government bond yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.94%, the highest level in nearly a month. European bonds fell as traders increased bets that central banks will have no choice but to raise interest rates this year. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting will be the most important macro event of this trading day. The minutes' importance grew after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shortened his policy statement and declined to weigh in on interest rate forecasts. Bloomberg economist Andrew Sacher said the minutes "could bring back hawkish sentiment that has subsided since the jobs report, as the minutes will reflect the hawkish dot plot released at the time." "We expect the minutes to highlight concerns about inflation running above target and officials' desire to retain some room for tightening," he said. Standard Chartered's Steve Englander said in a report that Warsh has explicitly avoided giving policy guidance, so it seems unlikely that he will allow such guidance to be released through meeting minutes. "Avoiding any discussion of raising interest rates could be interpreted by markets as a reluctance to take action," he said. European natural gas prices rose above 48 euros per megawatt hour. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas contract rose 2.9% to 48.12 euros per megawatt hour, with a cumulative increase of more than 10% this week. The latest escalation between the United States and Iran has heightened market concerns about fuel supplies ahead of the European heating season. "The European gas market still looks tight as we enter the gas injection season," ING's Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said. Currently, EU gas stocks are filled at 50%, significantly below the five-year average of 66%. Gold falls below 4100 Gold prices have fallen sharply and have now fallen below the $4,100 support. Investors await the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for more clues on the outlook for monetary policy. Analysts at ING said: "The trend of gold is still mainly following changes in U.S. interest rate expectations." At the same time, China's central bank continues to buy gold, and global central banks continue to promote reserve diversification, which also provides underlying support for gold prices. On the occasion of the correction of AI semiconductors, Wall Street's strategy has switched to "low-stress high-quality stocks." Wall Street financial giant Jefferies recommends that investors hold high-quality, low profit-taking pressure and low-congestion stocks in the near future to ride out the possible major correction of technology stocks in the summer. Market volatility is rising sharply at a time when the crowded AI semiconductor transactions related to the AI investment boom are cleared and deleveraging, as well as concerns about the path to AI revenue generation are intensifying.
Jefferies’ latest views and Senior strategist Wilson and other top strategists have the same view, that is, from the highly crowded, highly leveraged, and high beta AI computing power trading theme to gradually reduce positions, and shift to high quality, low momentum, abundant cash flow, and strong fundamental cyclical sectors and defensive stocks that have risen far less than technology stocks this year. Nasdaq's rally stalled after rising 18% this year? The prediction platform has a 50-50 long-short game, and the probability of breaking through 33,000 points within the year is only 27%. 100 index is already up about 18% in 2026, but traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi do not think the index will go much higher in the second half of 2026. Speculators believe there is about a 50-50 chance that the tech-heavy index will close above 30,000 in 2026, a level it first crossed in late May. The sharp rise of the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2026 occurred after the U.S. stock market hit a low triggered by the U.S.-Iran war on March 30. Between then and June 2, the index of the Nasdaq's 100 largest non-financial stocks soared more than 33%, driven by renewed confidence in artificial intelligence trading. But today's traders seem to believe that this bull market has little momentum left. U.S. President Trump announced the termination of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, and international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting the share prices of energy companies. Diamondback Energy rose more than 3%; Apache Petroleum, rose more than 2.5%, up 1.5%. On the contrary, the rise in crude oil prices has sharply impacted travel companies with a high proportion of fuel costs, and the sector has generally fallen. Carnival Cruise Line fell 3.5% and Norwegian Cruise Line tumbled 3%; United Airlines also fell 3% and Delta Air Lines fell nearly 2%. In pre-market trading on Wednesday, SpaceX bucked the trend and emerged from an independent market, rising slightly by nearly 0.5%, rebounding slightly from Tuesday's drop of more than 6.5%. The stock closed below its IPO debut price of $150 on Tuesday. The memory chip sector continued its sell-off on Wednesday, with individual stocks weakening across the board. fell more than 5.5%, Technology fell 4.5%, Technology ended down 3.5%. The rating on Bath & Body Works was downgraded from neutral to sell, and the personal care retail company's stock price fell more than 4%. Analysts at the bank said the company’s Developing third-party distribution channels will divert customer flow from its own offline stores and erode its own retail business revenue. The company disclosed regulatory filings and raised its estimate of the total cost of the restructuring plan to $1.75 billion, compared with the previous estimate of $1.55 billion. The stock price fell 2% on this news. Electric vehicle maker Rivian posted its biggest one-day drop since February 2024 on Tuesday, and shares fell nearly 4% on Wednesday. The company previously announced that it would issue 75 million new shares to raise funds, and its stock price plummeted 18% on Tuesday after the news was released. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed
Related deals came into focus in South Korea earlier on Wednesday. South Korea's KOSPI index fell 5.35%, entering a technical bear market. The index has fallen 23% from its June high. Memory chip manufacturers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended recent losses, closing down 6.25% and 5.7% respectively. The best-performing major benchmark index this year, the index has been hit by wild swings recently. The rotation in technology stocks has intensified, with investors pulling out of semiconductor stocks and looking for technology assets with more attractive valuations. The group's share price rose 12%, the technology sector overall strengthened, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 5.2%. The broader Hang Seng Index rose 3%. Jialong Shi of Nomura Securities said that the overall rise in China's Internet sector may be due to the rebalancing of funds from the outstanding AI hardware sector to the lagging sector. Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said: "Multiple negative news flows are dragging the market down, and with no major earnings releases in the next few days to change this trend, it seems difficult for the market to find respite." While oil prices remain well below their highs above $120 a barrel at the height of the fighting, they are enough to reinject inflation risks into bond markets, especially after months of conflict have led to a decline in global oil inventories. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose for the seventh consecutive session, rising to a one-month high of 4.56%. In Europe, the 10-year government bond yields of Germany and Italy recorded the largest increase in a month, also rising to one-month highs of **3.06% and 3.9%** respectively. The UK 10-year government bond yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.94%, the highest level in nearly a month. European bonds fell as traders increased bets that central banks will have no choice but to raise interest rates this year. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting will be the most important macro event of this trading day. The minutes' importance grew after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shortened his policy statement and declined to weigh in on interest rate forecasts. Bloomberg economist Andrew Sacher said the minutes "could bring back hawkish sentiment that has subsided since the jobs report, as the minutes will reflect the hawkish dot plot released at the time." "We expect the minutes to highlight concerns about inflation running above target and officials' desire to retain some room for tightening," he said. Standard Chartered's Steve Englander said in a report that Warsh has explicitly avoided giving policy guidance, so it seems unlikely that he will allow such guidance to be released through meeting minutes. "Avoiding any discussion of raising interest rates could be interpreted by markets as a reluctance to take action," he said. European natural gas prices rose above 48 euros per megawatt hour. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas contract rose 2.9% to 48.12 euros per megawatt hour, with a cumulative increase of more than 10% this week. The latest escalation between the United States and Iran has heightened market concerns about fuel supplies ahead of the European heating season. "The European gas market still looks tight as we enter the gas injection season," ING's Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said. Currently, EU gas stocks are filled at 50%, significantly below the five-year average of 66%. Gold falls below 4100 Gold prices have fallen sharply and have now fallen below the $4,100 support. Investors await the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for more clues on the outlook for monetary policy. Analysts at ING said: "The trend of gold is still mainly following changes in U.S. interest rate expectations." At the same time, China's central bank continues to buy gold, and global central banks continue to promote reserve diversification, which also provides underlying support for gold prices. On the occasion of the correction of AI semiconductors, Wall Street's strategy has switched to "low-stress high-quality stocks." Wall Street financial giant Jefferies recommends that investors hold high-quality, low profit-taking pressure and low-congestion stocks in the near future to ride out the possible major correction of technology stocks in the summer. Market volatility is rising sharply at a time when the crowded AI semiconductor transactions related to the AI investment boom are cleared and deleveraging, as well as concerns about the path to AI revenue generation are intensifying.
Jefferies’ latest views and Senior strategist Wilson and other top strategists have the same view, that is, from the highly crowded, highly leveraged, and high beta AI computing power trading theme to gradually reduce positions, and shift to high quality, low momentum, abundant cash flow, and strong fundamental cyclical sectors and defensive stocks that have risen far less than technology stocks this year. Nasdaq's rally stalled after rising 18% this year? The prediction platform has a 50-50 long-short game, and the probability of breaking through 33,000 points within the year is only 27%. 100 index is already up about 18% in 2026, but traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi do not think the index will go much higher in the second half of 2026. Speculators believe there is about a 50-50 chance that the tech-heavy index will close above 30,000 in 2026, a level it first crossed in late May. The sharp rise of the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2026 occurred after the U.S. stock market hit a low triggered by the U.S.-Iran war on March 30. Between then and June 2, the index of the Nasdaq's 100 largest non-financial stocks soared more than 33%, driven by renewed confidence in artificial intelligence trading. But today's traders seem to believe that this bull market has little momentum left. U.S. President Trump announced the termination of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, and international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting the share prices of energy companies. Diamondback Energy rose more than 3%; Apache Petroleum, rose more than 2.5%, up 1.5%. On the contrary, the rise in crude oil prices has sharply impacted travel companies with a high proportion of fuel costs, and the sector has generally fallen. Carnival Cruise Line fell 3.5% and Norwegian Cruise Line tumbled 3%; United Airlines also fell 3% and Delta Air Lines fell nearly 2%. In pre-market trading on Wednesday, SpaceX bucked the trend and emerged from an independent market, rising slightly by nearly 0.5%, rebounding slightly from Tuesday's drop of more than 6.5%. The stock closed below its IPO debut price of $150 on Tuesday. The memory chip sector continued its sell-off on Wednesday, with individual stocks weakening across the board. fell more than 5.5%, Technology fell 4.5%, Technology ended down 3.5%. The rating on Bath & Body Works was downgraded from neutral to sell, and the personal care retail company's stock price fell more than 4%. Analysts at the bank said the company’s Developing third-party distribution channels will divert customer flow from its own offline stores and erode its own retail business revenue. The company disclosed regulatory filings and raised its estimate of the total cost of the restructuring plan to $1.75 billion, compared with the previous estimate of $1.55 billion. The stock price fell 2% on this news. Electric vehicle maker Rivian posted its biggest one-day drop since February 2024 on Tuesday, and shares fell nearly 4% on Wednesday. The company previously announced that it would issue 75 million new shares to raise funds, and its stock price plummeted 18% on Tuesday after the news was released. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed