ima_daily5min

Commodity positions are bottoming out, energy needs to be replenished by China’s demand, and gold is range-bound (J.P. Morgan)

2026-07-09·ima-daily5min-0709-04-0ece5764ef

Street Signal | Commodity positions are bottoming out, energy needs to be replenished by China’s demand, and gold is range-bound (J.P. Morgan)

The J.P. Morgan report showed that the total valuation of global commodity open positions increased slightly to US$1.7 trillion after six consecutive weeks of decline, and net investor positions fell 5% weekly to US$169 billion. Broken down, net long positions in energy and agriculture decreased, while precious metals increased.

Global commodity inventory monitoring is down to 69 days of usage (58 days outside China). J.P. Morgan QDS predicts that future positions will increase by US$13 billion, mainly driven by gold, corn, etc. But the key to energy market recovery lies in the return of China's crude oil demand and the replenishment of global inventories.

Gold is cautious in the short term due to expectations of interest rate cuts. The average price in 3Q26 is expected to be US$4,300 per ounce, and the average price in 4Q26 is US$4,500 per ounce.

One-sentence conclusion: Global commodity market sentiment has stabilized after continuous declines, and the position structure has diverged; the next wave of gains in energy and industrial metals needs to be confirmed by the recovery of Chinese demand, while gold has fluctuated widely in anticipation of interest rate cuts.

Pros/Cons: Positive: gold, corn (JPM QDS predicts positive rating direction). Neutral/Bearish: Energy (crude oil) (rebound depends on demand, current low inventory is supportive, but lacks upward driver).

Tip: The recent investment demand for gold may have been partly factored in expectations of interest rate cuts, and the short-term upside may be constrained. The rebound in energy has not yet been fully priced in by the market, and Chinese data need to be watched. Catalyst: China Purchasing Pace: China import data for crude oil and industrial metals.

Fed Policy: The impact of changes in interest rate cut expectations on gold and overall commodity market valuations. Inventory data: US EIA crude oil inventory, LME base metal inventory changes.

Full text

Commodity positions are bottoming out, energy needs to be replenished by China’s demand, and gold is range-bound (J.P. Morgan)

The J.P.

The J.P. Morgan report showed that the total valuation of global commodity open positions increased slightly to US$1.7 trillion after six consecutive weeks of decline, and net investor positions fell 5% weekly to US$169 billion. Broken down, net long positions in energy and agriculture decreased, while precious metals increased. Global commodity inventory monitoring is down to 69 days of usage (58 days outside China). J.P. Morgan QDS predicts that future positions will increase by US$13 billion, mainly driven by gold, corn, etc. But the key to energy market recovery lies in the return of China's crude oil demand and the replenishment of global inventories. Gold is cautious in the short term due to expectations of interest rate cuts. The average price in 3Q26 is expected to be US$4,300 per ounce, and the average price in 4Q26 is US$4,500 per ounce. One-sentence conclusion: Global commodity market sentiment has stabilized after continuous declines, and the position structure has diverged; the next wave of gains in energy and industrial metals needs to be confirmed by the recovery of Chinese demand, while gold has fluctuated widely in anticipation of interest rate cuts. Pros/Cons: Positive: gold, corn (JPM QDS predicts positive rating direction). Neutral/Bearish: Energy (crude oil) (rebound depends on demand, current low inventory is supportive, but lacks upward driver). Tip: The recent investment demand for gold may have been partly factored in expectations of interest rate cuts, and the short-term upside may be constrained. The rebound in energy has not yet been fully priced in by the market, and Chinese data need to be watched. Catalyst: China Purchasing Pace: China import data for crude oil and industrial metals. Fed Policy: The impact of changes in interest rate cut expectations on gold and overall commodity market valuations. Inventory data: US EIA crude oil inventory, LME base metal inventory changes.

← Back to archive