AI chip demand continues to be strong, CoWoS distribution and HBM consumption surge in 2027 (Morgan Stanley)
Mor Morgan Stanley updated the Asian AI supply chain, and key data revealed that the demand for AI chips far exceeded expectations.
Mor Morgan Stanley updated the Asian AI supply chain, and key data revealed that the demand for AI chips far exceeded expectations. The report predicts that by 2027, the total consumption of AI HBM (high bandwidth memory) will reach 50 billion Gb. Among them, NVIDIA's Rubin series (R200 and Ultra) are the biggest driving force, and are expected to consume 2.1 million pieces of CoWoS production capacity in 2027. Google's TPU v8i (Sunfish) will also consume 330,000 pieces of CoWoS production capacity. The total global CoWoS production capacity will expand from 170k w/m in 2026 to 280k w/m in 2027. Meta canceled its 2nm ASIC (Olympus) and instead developed the new chip Apollo. This batch of orders may be taken by Alchip or GUC. One sentence conclusion: The AI computing power arms race is far from over. Next-generation chips from NVIDIA and Google will be the core of demand in 2027, and advanced packaging (CoWoS) and HBM memory industry chains will be the most certain beneficiaries. Pros/Cons: Pros (core of the industrial chain): NVIDIA, TSMC (CoWoS production capacity), SK hynix/Micron/Samsung (HBM supplier), Broadcom (ASIC design). Pros (potential benefits): Alchip, GUC (if Meta ASIC order is obtained). Tip: The market has high expectations for AI chip demand in 2026, but there may be expectations for the further outlook and specific allocation ratio in 2027, especially changes in the ASIC field. Catalyst: CoWoS capacity expansion: TSMC and non-TSMC CoWoS production line construction progress. HBM4/4e mass production: Yield and mass production schedule of new generation HBM memory. Meta ASIC order ownership: After suspending the original project, who will ultimately receive the design and foundry orders for the new chip Apollo.