Pre-market: Nasdaq futures rose 0.64%, the market is betting that the United States and Iran will not go into full-scale war
Oil price gains were brought under control on Thursday (July 9) after the United States ended its second consecutive day of strikes against Iran, and stock markets rebounded from a brief period of geopolitical risk aversion. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.13%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.64%. Europe's Stoxx 600 rebounded from its biggest one-day selloff since March. In the London market, Disappointing results from a trial of a heart disease drug sent its shares down 9.4%. Shares of chipmakers in Asia, Europe and the United States rose after strong demand for SK Hynix's American depositary receipt issuance. After days of wild swings, chipmakers showed signs of repair after the bell. Technology rose 3.4%, The conflict between the United States and Iran escalates, and the market reassesses risks Renewed tensions are forcing stock investors to reassess previously optimistic expectations. The market had previously believed that a final resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict could support risk assets. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and The industrial average closed lower, while The composite index managed to end slightly higher. The U.S. military said on Wednesday it had launched a new round of strikes against Iran to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping. Iran responded by attacking Kuwait and Bahrain, deepening the confrontation between the two sides and putting the already fragile ceasefire efforts at risk of being derailed. The escalation came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed the temporary ceasefire with Iran was "over." Market sentiment remained calm even as violence escalated in the Middle East and threatened U.S. efforts to reach a permanent peace deal with Iran. Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of Global Wealth Management, said: "We have always believed that the road to a lasting peace agreement may be bumpy, and that periodic increases in tensions may trigger market volatility. However, we also believe that both sides still have incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz open." Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain Brent crude fell 0.5% to $77.60 a barrel. The previous trading day, Brent crude oil recorded its largest single-day gain since May. Supply concerns are also driven by Russia, especially in middle distillates. Due to continued drone attacks on oil refining infrastructure in Ukraine and fuel shortages in Russia, Russia announced a ban on diesel exports until the end of July. Group analysts said: "The price action over the past few days clearly shows that the market has been too relaxed about the risks surrounding this agreement and is too optimistic that regional supply can rebound quickly." Although the day's drop in crude oil prices helped stabilize market sentiment, investors remain wary: If Middle East energy transportation routes are disrupted for a long time, it may bring new inflation risks. Traders said that while the tensions reflected the fragile nature of the ceasefire, neither government wanted a full-scale return to war and the two sides were likely to eventually return to the negotiating table. Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY, said: "This is the new status quo; it's an uneasy balance, but a balance nonetheless. You just have to factor volatility into your asset allocation." Bonds stop falling and stabilize, yields fall Global bonds edged higher as two days of oil-driven bond selloff came to an end. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.20%. "However, the market appears to have stabilized for now, with Brent crude hovering around $79 a barrel and U.S. yields and German Bund futures trading sideways in overnight trading in Asia," said Danske Bank analyst August Hyldgaard. Euro zone government bond and gilt yields fell as oil prices turned lower, reversing some of the previous session's sharp gains. The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell 1.8 basis points to last reported at 3.067%; the yield on 10-year British government bonds fell 3.1 basis points to 4.935%. Disagreement emerges in Fed minutes, market awaits inflation data The dollar was little changed. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed policymakers were divided on the future path of interest rates.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting released on Wednesday showed that some committee members believed there were reasons to raise interest rates. Traders will now await U.S. inflation data next week and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Josh Warsh to lawmakers for further judgment on the path of interest rates. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar said in a report that compared with the "hawkish interpretation" triggered by the June press conference, the minutes were more balanced. The June press conference had boosted market expectations for interest rate hikes. He said many Fed policymakers believe price pressures will ease in the medium term and policy rates can remain stable or gradually lower. "Our view remains that as long as there is no significant spike in oil prices, we do not expect the Fed to raise rates this year and still expect the next move to be a rate cut, possibly next year," Kumar said. Oil prices remain an important variable for Fed hawks "While policymakers are likely to remain hawkish for a while longer, the rhetoric should start to soften once they become more confident that the effects of second-round inflation will be limited," Haefele said. Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year, according to LSEG data. New York Fed President John Williams will also participate in a moderated discussion later Thursday. "Our bias is that higher energy prices will provide justification for a hawkish Fed and provide support if the dollar pulls back, especially against lower-yielding currencies," wrote Chris Turner, ING's head of FX strategy. Nearly 70% of U.S. technology stocks fell into bear market territory! AI faith faces a big test: profit-taking or cycle peak? The AI star stocks that have led the market in the past few months are now collectively on fire - as many as 69% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 information technology sector have fallen more than 20% from their 52-week high and entered a bear market. But while the sell-off is significant, some analysts don't think it necessarily means a trend reversal. They believe that it is a natural process for investors to take profits after the previous sharp rise. Some analysts pointed out that in the past few quarters, technology stocks usually came under pressure within a month after the release of earnings reports, and then rebounded before the release of the next earnings report. In a research report this week, it was stated that the AI-driven technology upward cycle has not yet shown a peak signal. The report believes that the supply of semiconductors and electronic components has not yet exceeded demand, and technological evolution shows no signs of slowing down. The Wall Street giant views the recent market correction as a healthy recovery after a rapid rise in stock prices, rather than a trend reversal in tech stocks. Goldman Sachs believes that this cycle is expected to become one of the largest and longest technology upcycles in history. AstraZeneca's share price fell 8%. The core reason was that the phase III clinical trial of its new heart disease drug Wainua failed to meet the preset efficacy endpoint. PepsiCo's second-quarter results were mixed. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.20 were lower than the $2.21 consensus of analysts surveyed by London Stock Exchange Group; total revenue of $24.18 billion was higher than market expectations of $23.95 billion. The stock fell 1%. Investment bank KeyBanc will The rating was downgraded to "sector standard" from "overweight" and the stock price fell 4%. The bank said that through industry research, customer interviews and financial report data disclosed by the company, it is difficult to find favorable evidence to support the subsequent rise in the stock price. A downgrade of Stellandis to "neutral" from "overweight" sent shares of the Jeep owner down 2%. Analyst Jose Assumendi said it will take at least 14 months for Stellandis' transformation plan to realize performance dividends. Denim apparel giant Levi's lowered its third-quarter guidance, sending its stock price down 4%. The company expects third-quarter earnings per share in the range of $0.34-0.36, lower than the $0.38 expected by FactSet analysts; however, its second-quarter revenue and net profit both exceeded market expectations.
Metal coating solutions service provider AZZ's latest quarter earnings per share were US$1.85, higher than FactSet's consensus estimate of US$1.69; revenue of US$448.5 million also exceeded expectations of US$434.6 million, and the stock price rose 6%. AI computing infrastructure company Cerebras Systems announced a large-scale European expansion plan, and its stock price rose nearly 7%. The company will put its first European data center into operation by the end of this year, and plans to build new computer rooms in many places in Europe in 2027, with the total computing capacity expanded to 2,000 megawatts. Costco's same-store sales growth slowed in June, sending its stock price down nearly 2%: June comparable sales rose 8.8% year-over-year, compared with 12.5% year-over-year growth in May. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting released on Wednesday showed that some committee members believed there were reasons to raise interest rates. Traders will now await U.S. inflation data next week and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Josh Warsh to lawmakers for further judgment on the path of interest rates. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar said in a report that compared with the "hawkish interpretation" triggered by the June press conference, the minutes were more balanced. The June press conference had boosted market expectations for interest rate hikes. He said many Fed policymakers believe price pressures will ease in the medium term and policy rates can remain stable or gradually lower. "Our view remains that as long as there is no significant spike in oil prices, we do not expect the Fed to raise rates this year and still expect the next move to be a rate cut, possibly next year," Kumar said. Oil prices remain an important variable for Fed hawks "While policymakers are likely to remain hawkish for a while longer, the rhetoric should start to soften once they become more confident that the effects of second-round inflation will be limited," Haefele said. Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year, according to LSEG data. New York Fed President John Williams will also participate in a moderated discussion later Thursday. "Our bias is that higher energy prices will provide justification for a hawkish Fed and provide support if the dollar pulls back, especially against lower-yielding currencies," wrote Chris Turner, ING's head of FX strategy. Nearly 70% of U.S. technology stocks fell into bear market territory! AI faith faces a big test: profit-taking or cycle peak? The AI star stocks that have led the market in the past few months are now collectively on fire - as many as 69% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 information technology sector have fallen more than 20% from their 52-week high and entered a bear market. But while the sell-off is significant, some analysts don't think it necessarily means a trend reversal. They believe that it is a natural process for investors to take profits after the previous sharp rise. Some analysts pointed out that in the past few quarters, technology stocks usually came under pressure within a month after the release of earnings reports, and then rebounded before the release of the next earnings report. In a research report this week, it was stated that the AI-driven technology upward cycle has not yet shown a peak signal. The report believes that the supply of semiconductors and electronic components has not yet exceeded demand, and technological evolution shows no signs of slowing down. The Wall Street giant views the recent market correction as a healthy recovery after a rapid rise in stock prices, rather than a trend reversal in tech stocks. Goldman Sachs believes that this cycle is expected to become one of the largest and longest technology upcycles in history. AstraZeneca's share price fell 8%. The core reason was that the phase III clinical trial of its new heart disease drug Wainua failed to meet the preset efficacy endpoint. PepsiCo's second-quarter results were mixed. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.20 were lower than the $2.21 consensus of analysts surveyed by London Stock Exchange Group; total revenue of $24.18 billion was higher than market expectations of $23.95 billion. The stock fell 1%. Investment bank KeyBanc will The rating was downgraded to "sector standard" from "overweight" and the stock price fell 4%. The bank said that through industry research, customer interviews and financial report data disclosed by the company, it is difficult to find favorable evidence to support the subsequent rise in the stock price. A downgrade of Stellandis to "neutral" from "overweight" sent shares of the Jeep owner down 2%. Analyst Jose Assumendi said it will take at least 14 months for Stellandis' transformation plan to realize performance dividends. Denim apparel giant Levi's lowered its third-quarter guidance, sending its stock price down 4%. The company expects third-quarter earnings per share in the range of $0.34-0.36, lower than the $0.38 expected by FactSet analysts; however, its second-quarter revenue and net profit both exceeded market expectations.
Metal coating solutions service provider AZZ's latest quarter earnings per share were US$1.85, higher than FactSet's consensus estimate of US$1.69; revenue of US$448.5 million also exceeded expectations of US$434.6 million, and the stock price rose 6%. AI computing infrastructure company Cerebras Systems announced a large-scale European expansion plan, and its stock price rose nearly 7%. The company will put its first European data center into operation by the end of this year, and plans to build new computer rooms in many places in Europe in 2027, with the total computing capacity expanded to 2,000 megawatts. Costco's same-store sales growth slowed in June, sending its stock price down nearly 2%: June comparable sales rose 8.8% year-over-year, compared with 12.5% year-over-year growth in May. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed