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Satellite communications threaten traditional broadband, T-Mobile lowers FWA expectations, but still the best choice (Morgan Stanley)

2026-07-10·ima-daily5min-0709-51-6d96f545a0

Street Signal | Satellite communications threaten traditional broadband, T-Mobile lowers FWA expectations, but still the best choice (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley updated its forecast for telecom companies, with the key change taking into account the potential impact on the market from satellite operators such as Starlink. As a result, T-Mobile's long-term fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber broadband net subscriber forecasts have been lowered to approximately 115,000 and 100,000 respectively.

Broadband subscriber forecasts for Comcast and Charter were also lowered. However, the report still ranks T-Mobile as a top stock due to the strength of its core mobile business and the long-term opportunities presented by satellite communications (such as its cooperation with Starlink).

The logic behind it is that although satellite communications pose a threat, it will be difficult to shake T-Mobile's competitive position and growth potential in the wireless market in the short term.

One-sentence conclusion: The rise of satellite broadband (Starlink) poses a long-term threat to traditional telecom operators, but T-Mobile, with its strong wireless business and potential satellite cooperation, has stronger defensive and offensive capabilities and is still the best choice for the sector.

Pros/Cons: Positive: T-Mobile (TMUS) (key name discussed, more resilient in the short to medium term). Negative: Comcast, Charter (traditional cable broadband operators) and all FWA operators (long-term impact of satellite broadband).

Tip: Market concerns about the disruptive impact of satellite communications may be exaggerated, especially in the short term, but the valuation implications for wireline broadband operators may not yet be fully realized.

Catalyst: Satellite cooperation: The progress and commercialization model of T-Mobile’s cooperation with SpaceX to provide satellite services directly connected to mobile phones. 2Q26 performance: Is T-Mobile’s FWA net user additions in line with expectations of 210K.

Starlink Pricing: Further declines in Starlink terminal and service prices will intensify competition with traditional broadband.

Full text

Satellite communications threaten traditional broadband, T-Mobile lowers FWA expectations, but still the best choice (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley updated its forecast for telecom companies, with the key change taking into account the potential impact on the market from satellite operators such as Starlink.

Morgan Stanley updated its forecast for telecom companies, with the key change taking into account the potential impact on the market from satellite operators such as Starlink. As a result, T-Mobile's long-term fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber broadband net subscriber forecasts have been lowered to approximately 115,000 and 100,000 respectively. Broadband subscriber forecasts for Comcast and Charter were also lowered. However, the report still ranks T-Mobile as a top stock due to the strength of its core mobile business and the long-term opportunities presented by satellite communications (such as its cooperation with Starlink). The logic behind it is that although satellite communications pose a threat, it will be difficult to shake T-Mobile's competitive position and growth potential in the wireless market in the short term. One-sentence conclusion: The rise of satellite broadband (Starlink) poses a long-term threat to traditional telecom operators, but T-Mobile, with its strong wireless business and potential satellite cooperation, has stronger defensive and offensive capabilities and is still the best choice for the sector. Pros/Cons: Positive: T-Mobile (TMUS) (key name discussed, more resilient in the short to medium term). Negative: Comcast, Charter (traditional cable broadband operators) and all FWA operators (long-term impact of satellite broadband). Tip: Market concerns about the disruptive impact of satellite communications may be exaggerated, especially in the short term, but the valuation implications for wireline broadband operators may not yet be fully realized. Catalyst: Satellite cooperation: The progress and commercialization model of T-Mobile’s cooperation with SpaceX to provide satellite services directly connected to mobile phones. 2Q26 performance: Is T-Mobile’s FWA net user additions in line with expectations of 210K. Starlink Pricing: Further declines in Starlink terminal and service prices will intensify competition with traditional broadband.

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