Independent research firm Hedgeye warns that Apple stock price could fall by 23%
The independent research organization Hedgeye will recently Listed as a new short-selling target, it is believed that its stock price has about 23% downside, on the grounds that high valuations and overly optimistic growth expectations have been basically digested by the market. Analysts from the agency pointed out that investors’ expectations for the AI iPhone super replacement cycle have been widely accepted by Wall Street sell-side analysts and reflected in the stock price. Apple's current price-to-earnings ratio is about 34 times, and this valuation requires double-digit growth in Greater China in fiscal years 2027 and 2028 to support it. However, this goal seems too optimistic under the pressure of Huawei's competition. Analysts further pointed out that although Apple is still gaining market share in China, the growth rate did not accelerate in the June quarter. If the revenue growth rate in Greater China falls to single digits in the future, the current high valuation will be difficult to maintain. While institutions issued bearish warnings, there was news in the market that Apple was negotiating acquisitions with AI startups. The company is said to have mastered the technology of compressing large language models to less than one-tenth of its original volume, and can run AI locally on the iPhone, reducing dependence on the cloud. Apple's stock price has risen by about 15% so far this year, and the market response is still relatively mild. Investors will wait for the July 30 financial report and Greater China sales data to verify the long-short logic.