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German cars continue to lose share in China's luxury market, Goldman Sachs warns of industry woes (Goldman Sachs)

2026-07-11·ima-daily5min-0711-06-92d6bb1258

Street Signal | German cars continue to lose share in China's luxury market, Goldman Sachs warns of industry woes (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its June China retail data report that European automakers, especially German luxury brands, are facing unprecedented pressure in China. The report shows that the market share of European luxury brands continued to decline in June. The main reason is that German fuel vehicle products are in a window period.

At the same time, China’s local technology and luxury brands (Tech & Premium) are rising rapidly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEV) reached 62.9% in June, but overall sales showed negative year-on-year growth. This shows that in the existing competition, local brands are significantly squeezing the living space of foreign brands.

The market has generally recognized the plight of German cars in China, but there are no signs of reversal in the short term, which means that German auto stocks may continue to be under pressure. One sentence conclusion: The golden age of German luxury cars in the Chinese market has ended. The loss of its market share is structural.

Before the launch of new products, the stock prices of related companies will continue to face pressure. Positive/negative: It is positive for Chinese local new energy brands such as BYD, Geely, NIO, and Ideal; it is negative for German car companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz and their joint venture partners in China.

The market has largely priced in the "German collapse" trend, but the bottom point is still unclear. Catalysts:

1) The sales performance and pricing strategies of German brands’ next-generation pure electric platform (such as PPE) models;

2) Whether China’s policies on fuel vehicles will be further tightened;

3) The continued market share data of China’s local high-end brands (such as Wenjie, NIO, and Denza).

Full text

German cars continue to lose share in China's luxury market, Goldman Sachs warns of industry woes (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its June China retail data report that European automakers, especially German luxury brands, are facing unprecedented pressure in China.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its June China retail data report that European automakers, especially German luxury brands, are facing unprecedented pressure in China. The report shows that the market share of European luxury brands continued to decline in June. The main reason is that German fuel vehicle products are in a window period. At the same time, China’s local technology and luxury brands (Tech & Premium) are rising rapidly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEV) reached 62.9% in June, but overall sales showed negative year-on-year growth. This shows that in the existing competition, local brands are significantly squeezing the living space of foreign brands. The market has generally recognized the plight of German cars in China, but there are no signs of reversal in the short term, which means that German auto stocks may continue to be under pressure. One sentence conclusion: The golden age of German luxury cars in the Chinese market has ended. The loss of its market share is structural. Before the launch of new products, the stock prices of related companies will continue to face pressure. Positive/negative: It is positive for Chinese local new energy brands such as BYD, Geely, NIO, and Ideal; it is negative for German car companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz and their joint venture partners in China. The market has largely priced in the "German collapse" trend, but the bottom point is still unclear. Catalysts: 1) The sales performance and pricing strategies of German brands’ next-generation pure electric platform (such as PPE) models; 2) Whether China’s policies on fuel vehicles will be further tightened; 3) The continued market share data of China’s local high-end brands (such as Wenjie, NIO, and Denza).

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