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High-frequency data shows that China’s economic activity is divided, with real estate sales stabilizing but consumer confidence falling (Goldman Sachs)

2026-07-11·ima-daily5min-0711-10-ab8e106586

Street Signal | High-frequency data shows that China’s economic activity is divided, with real estate sales stabilizing but consumer confidence falling (Goldman Sachs)

The China Economic Activity and Policy Tracking Report released by Goldman Sachs on July 10 depicts the latest economic picture through high-frequency data.

The positive signal is that after a period of decline, the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 cities continued to decline last week, but it was still higher than the same period last year; port container throughput and major port cargo volume also remained in the year-on-year positive growth range.

The negative signal is that the Morning Consult consumer confidence index has declined in the past week; although new energy vehicle (NEV) sales have increased month-on-month, they are still lower than the same period last year; domestic gasoline and diesel prices were significantly reduced on July 3. This shows that the economic recovery is still uneven.

Real estate and exports are relatively resilient, but domestic demand and consumer confidence remain fragile.

One-sentence conclusion: High-frequency data confirms the differentiated characteristics of China's economy of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand." The stabilization of the real estate market is a short-term bright spot, but the weakness of consumer confidence is the core concern.

Positive/negative: Positive for the real estate market and export-related sectors; negative for optional consumer goods closely related to domestic consumption. The market has already recognized this differentiation pattern.

Catalysts: 1) weekly high-frequency data such as real estate transaction volume, port throughput and steel production; 2) whether the Politburo meeting at the end of the month will release new policies to stabilize growth; 3) whether the government will introduce stimulus measures targeting consumer confidence.

Full text

High-frequency data shows that China’s economic activity is divided, with real estate sales stabilizing but consumer confidence falling (Goldman Sachs)

The China Economic Activity and Policy Tracking Report released by Goldman Sachs on July 10 depicts the latest economic picture through high-frequency data.

The China Economic Activity and Policy Tracking Report released by Goldman Sachs on July 10 depicts the latest economic picture through high-frequency data. The positive signal is that after a period of decline, the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 cities continued to decline last week, but it was still higher than the same period last year; port container throughput and major port cargo volume also remained in the year-on-year positive growth range. The negative signal is that the Morning Consult consumer confidence index has declined in the past week; although new energy vehicle (NEV) sales have increased month-on-month, they are still lower than the same period last year; domestic gasoline and diesel prices were significantly reduced on July 3. This shows that the economic recovery is still uneven. Real estate and exports are relatively resilient, but domestic demand and consumer confidence remain fragile. One-sentence conclusion: High-frequency data confirms the differentiated characteristics of China's economy of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand." The stabilization of the real estate market is a short-term bright spot, but the weakness of consumer confidence is the core concern. Positive/negative: Positive for the real estate market and export-related sectors; negative for optional consumer goods closely related to domestic consumption. The market has already recognized this differentiation pattern. Catalysts: 1) weekly high-frequency data such as real estate transaction volume, port throughput and steel production; 2) whether the Politburo meeting at the end of the month will release new policies to stabilize growth; 3) whether the government will introduce stimulus measures targeting consumer confidence.

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