COSCO Shipping Energy's 2Q26 profit is in line with expectations, and it will accelerate its pursuit from 3Q after the trapped oil tanker is released (Goldman Sachs)
A Goldman Sachs report pointed out that COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK)’s 2Q26 net profit was approximately 2.3 billion yuan (a 7% month-on-month increase), which was basically in line with expectations.
A Goldman Sachs report pointed out that COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK)’s 2Q26 net profit was approximately 2.3 billion yuan (a 7% month-on-month increase), which was basically in line with expectations. However, due to the blockade of the Persian Gulf, seven oil tankers were trapped and demurrage was unable to be collected, and its revenue contribution was lower than that of its peers. With the Strait of Hormuz reopened and the trapped oil tanker released, the company expects to catch up with its peers from 3Q26. Goldman Sachs is optimistic that interest rates will return to an annual average of $150,000 per day and maintains a positive rating. The core logic is that the limited supply of tankers (few new ship orders) and the improvement in demand structure (long-distance transportation brought about by geopolitics) jointly support the upward trend of the economy. The market's previous concerns were mainly focused on the short-term risk of the ship being stuck, while ignoring the huge resilience after release. One sentence conclusion: COSCO Shipping Energy's "disturbance" is temporary. As the trapped ships resume operations and the peak season approaches, its profit elasticity will be released. It is a target with clear rebound momentum in the shipping sector. Positive/negative: Positive for COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK). The weaker-than-expected 2Q has been partially reflected in the stock price, but market expectations for catching up in 3Q have not yet been fully established, and there is room for upside. Catalysts: 1) The actual revenue contribution of 7 released tankers in 3Q; 2) The trend of crude oil transportation freight rates (TD3C, etc.); 3) The long-term stability of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.