China’s rocket recycling achieves breakthrough in “net capture”, ushering in the low-cost space era (Nomura)

Street Signal | China’s rocket recycling achieves breakthrough in “net capture”, ushering in the low-cost space era (Nomura)

Nomura Securities reported that the first stage of China's Long March 10B rocket achieved controlled recovery for the first time through an innovative maritime capture system, making China the country after the United States to master rocket recovery technology.

Compared with the traditional landing leg solution, the "net capture" path can significantly reduce the rocket's dead weight and relax landing accuracy requirements, making it more cost-effective. This will significantly reduce launch costs and accelerate satellite constellation networking.

Nomura predicts that the cost advantage of more than 30% of reusable rockets will dominate the industry reshuffle from 2027 to 29, with launch economy per kilogram becoming the decisive indicator. The market may not yet fully appreciate China’s “asymmetric” breakthrough in aerospace technology and its industrialization prospects.

One-sentence conclusion: China's original rocket "net capture" recovery marks that commercial aerospace has entered a new stage of engineering cost reduction. Related satellite manufacturing and rocket parts companies will usher in a Davis double-click. The valuation logic of Musk’s SpaceX has been strengthened.

This technological breakthrough is a major recent event, and market attention is expected to continue to increase. Catalysts:

1) Subsequent test frequency and success rate of "net capture" recovery technology;

2) Launch plans and cost data of domestic commercial rocket companies;

3) Bidding and construction progress of the national low-orbit satellite constellation project.