Laopu Gold: Gold prices drag down sales but support profit margins, lower profit forecast but maintain buy (Goldman Sachs)

2026-07-11·ima-daily5min-0711-23-a5cce64578

Street Signal | Laopu Gold: Gold prices drag down sales but support profit margins, lower profit forecast but maintain buy (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs' report pointed out that the double-edged sword effect of high gold prices is most vividly reflected in Laopu Gold (6181.HK): on the one hand, high gold prices have suppressed consumers' willingness to buy, causing the 2026 revenue forecast to be significantly reduced by 21.7%; but on the other hand, the rise in gold prices has also significantly increased the company's gross profit margin, from the previous 40.1% to 44.6%.

Therefore, despite lowering its profit forecast, Goldman Sachs still maintains a positive rating based on its strong brand premium and risk resistance. This analysis reveals a cognitive bias in the market: focusing too much on declining sales (negative) while ignoring the huge positive contribution of high gold prices to profit margins (positive).

One sentence conclusion: Laopu Gold's profit model has shown strong resilience in the high gold price environment. The decline in sales has been offset by the expansion of profit margins. Its value as a gold brand has not been damaged, and the market reaction has been overly pessimistic. Good/bad: Good for Laopu Gold (6181.HK).

The market may have overpriced its concerns about declining sales, but it has not yet fully priced in the sustainability of profit margin improvements. Catalysts:

1) Same store sales (SSSG) data in the second half of the year to observe whether consumption willingness has stabilized;

2) The future trend of gold prices is the key to whether profit margins can be maintained;

3) The progress and contribution of overseas store expansion.

Full text

Laopu Gold: Gold prices drag down sales but support profit margins, lower profit forecast but maintain buy (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs' report pointed out that the double-edged sword effect of high gold prices is most vividly reflected in Laopu Gold (6181.HK): on the one hand, high gold prices have suppressed consumers' willingness to buy, causing the 2026 revenue forecast to be significantly reduced by 21.7%; but on the other hand, the rise in gold prices has also significantly increased the company's gross profit margin, from the previous 40.1% to 44.6%. Therefore, despite lowering its profit forecast, Goldman Sachs still maintains a positive rating based on its strong brand premium and risk resistance. This analysis reveals a cognitive bias in the market: focusing too much on declining sales (negative) while ignoring the huge positive contribution of high gold prices to profit margins (positive). One sentence conclusion: Laopu Gold's profit model has shown strong resilience in the high gold price environment. The decline in sales has been offset by the expansion of profit margins. Its value as a gold brand has not been damaged, and the market reaction has been overly pessimistic. Good/bad: Good for Laopu Gold (6181.HK). The market may have overpriced its concerns about declining sales, but it has not yet fully priced in the sustainability of profit margin improvements. Catalysts: 1) Same store sales (SSSG) data in the second half of the year to observe whether consumption willingness has stabilized; 2) The future trend of gold prices is the key to whether profit margins can be maintained; 3) The progress and contribution of overseas store expansion.