Haidilao's turnover rate in June dropped slightly year-on-year, with weak macro recovery being the main reason. Summer passenger flow may continue to be sluggish (Morgan Stanley)
Haidilao's operating data for June 2026 shows that the turnover rate dropped slightly year-on-year and was lower than expected.
Haidilao's operating data for June 2026 shows that the turnover rate dropped slightly year-on-year and was lower than expected. Morgan Stanley believes that weak macroeconomic recovery rather than weather factors is the main reason for the slower-than-expected recovery of passenger flow, and predicts that passenger flow may continue to be weak during the summer. The valuation is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times forecast earnings in 2026 and takes into account expectations of a gradual recovery. The market had previously had expectations for the recovery of catering, but Haidilao's latest data showed that the impact of macro headwinds exceeded expectations. The current stock price has reflected some pessimistic expectations, but there is also the risk of further downward revisions. One-sentence conclusion: Haidilao's June data suggests the fragility of the recovery in catering consumption. The macro environment is still the core constraint. Although the valuation has taken into account a gradual recovery, the short-term stock price still lacks upward catalyst. Good/bad: Bad for Haidilao. The current stock price has already reflected the weak recovery, but if the macro environment continues to be sluggish, there is still a risk of downward revision in valuation. Catalysts: 1) Table turnover rate data in July and summer to verify customer flow trends; 2) Macro consumption data (such as social retail) and policy stimulus expectations; 3) The company's store expansion plan and cost control measures effects.