Bubble Mart and Miniso faced the highest base of the year, and online growth decelerated significantly (Goldman Sachs)
China’s IP retailer and toy tracking data shows that due to the pressure of the highest base numbers faced by Bubble Mart and Miniso during the year, online sales growth at home and abroad has decelerated significantly.
China’s IP retailer and toy tracking data shows that due to the pressure of the highest base numbers faced by Bubble Mart and Miniso during the year, online sales growth at home and abroad has decelerated significantly. At the same time, weak overseas market demand and lack of consumer confidence have dragged down the overseas business of these two brands. On the contrary, Bloks achieved a month-on-month increase in online growth by accelerating the release of new products and IP. In addition, the resale discount rate of Bubble Mart's new series in the second-hand market has accelerated, which also indicates that its product momentum is weakening. The market has expectations for high-base disturbances, but the degree of weakness in overseas demand and the marginal weakening of brand momentum may exceed expectations. One-sentence conclusion: The June data of Bubble Mart and Miniso sounded the alarm. The highest base during the year resonated with weak overseas demand, and short-term growth momentum was under pressure, while Bloks bucked the trend with product innovation. Positive/negative: short-term negative for Bubble Mart and Miniso; positive for Bloks. The high base pressure has been partly expected by the market, but if subsequent data continues to weaken, the stock price faces the risk of downward adjustment. Catalysts: 1) July and subsequent monthly online sales data to verify whether the high base effect has weakened; 2) New product releases and IP cooperation dynamics of each company; 3) Consumption trend data in overseas markets (especially Southeast Asia).