Global EV growth is divided, with China slowing down, the EU strong, and the United States sluggish, with ESS becoming the brightest spot (J.P. Morgan)
J.P.
J.P. Morgan's June Global EV and Battery Monthly Report shows significant market differentiation: EU EV/PHEV penetration and sales growth are strong, China's penetration rate is rising but overall passenger cars are weak, and the U.S. market continues to be sluggish. The biggest bright spot comes from energy storage systems (ESS). FERC grid reform has raised the US ESS demand forecast by 52% to 303GWh in 2030. Global demand for ESS batteries is solid, and U.S. battery procurement is shifting from China to South Korea and Japan. The agency highlights overweighting Korean vehicle and battery companies, and remains optimistic about China's BYD and CATL. The market has already expected a slowdown in EV growth, but the explosive growth in demand for ESS and the trend of geographical procurement shifts may be a bigger gap in expectations. One sentence conclusion: The global EV market is divided, and grid-level energy storage (ESS) is taking over as the next core engine for battery demand growth and driving the restructuring of the global battery supply chain. Positive/negative: Positive for ESS related industry chains (inverters, battery system integrators), Korean battery manufacturers (LG New Energy, Samsung SDI), as well as BYD and CATL. Concerns about an EV slowdown have partially priced in, but the huge potential of the ESS market may not yet be fully revalued. Catalysts: 1) 2Q26 EV sales data of various countries; 2) Specific implementation progress of FERC grid reform in the United States; 3) Large-scale ESS project bidding and order announcements.