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China's A-H share rotation model indicates that H shares may outperform slightly in the short term, and the US$230 billion locked-up stocks will be released in the next 12 months (

2026-07-12·ima-daily5min-0712-18-93e9cf96f1

Street Signal | China's A-H share rotation model indicates that H shares may outperform slightly in the short term, and the US$230 billion locked-up stocks will be released in the next 12 months (

Goldman Sachs China's weekly start-up report pointed out that the MXCN index rose 3% while A shares fell 1.3%, with divergent trends. The People's Bank of China reiterated its prudent easing stance and launched plans to support Hong Kong's offshore renminbi (CNH) market. In June, CPI slowed to 1.0% year-on-year, and PPI rose to 4.1%.

Goldman Sachs' A-H rotation model shows that H shares may slightly outperform A shares in the next three months. At the same time, approximately US$230 billion in locked-up stocks will be released from the Hong Kong stock market in the next 12 months, which may put pressure on related stocks.

In terms of industries, it remains overweighted in materials and capital goods and underweighted in real estate. The advantage of H shares over A shares has been partially reflected in recent capital flows, but the supply pressure brought about by the lifting of the Tianliang ban may be a risk that the market has not yet fully factored in.

One sentence conclusion: H shares may continue to outperform A shares in the short term, but the Hong Kong stock market will face huge pressure from the lifting of the ban in the next year, which will be an important factor affecting individual stocks and overall liquidity that cannot be ignored.

Good/bad: short-term good for Hong Kong stocks (especially H-shares); in the medium and long term, we need to be wary of the liquidity pressure on individual stocks caused by large-scale lifting of restrictions. Catalysts:

1) Politburo meeting in July to set the policy tone;

2) The impact of the pace of the Fed’s interest rate cuts on the CNH market;

3) The stock price performance and trading volume changes of related stocks before and after the expiration of unbanned stocks.

Full text

China's A-H share rotation model indicates that H shares may outperform slightly in the short term, and the US$230 billion locked-up stocks will be released in the next 12 months (

Goldman Sachs China's weekly start-up report pointed out that the MXCN index rose 3% while A shares fell 1.3%, with divergent trends.

Goldman Sachs China's weekly start-up report pointed out that the MXCN index rose 3% while A shares fell 1.3%, with divergent trends. The People's Bank of China reiterated its prudent easing stance and launched plans to support Hong Kong's offshore renminbi (CNH) market. In June, CPI slowed to 1.0% year-on-year, and PPI rose to 4.1%. Goldman Sachs' A-H rotation model shows that H shares may slightly outperform A shares in the next three months. At the same time, approximately US$230 billion in locked-up stocks will be released from the Hong Kong stock market in the next 12 months, which may put pressure on related stocks. In terms of industries, it remains overweighted in materials and capital goods and underweighted in real estate. The advantage of H shares over A shares has been partially reflected in recent capital flows, but the supply pressure brought about by the lifting of the Tianliang ban may be a risk that the market has not yet fully factored in. One sentence conclusion: H shares may continue to outperform A shares in the short term, but the Hong Kong stock market will face huge pressure from the lifting of the ban in the next year, which will be an important factor affecting individual stocks and overall liquidity that cannot be ignored. Good/bad: short-term good for Hong Kong stocks (especially H-shares); in the medium and long term, we need to be wary of the liquidity pressure on individual stocks caused by large-scale lifting of restrictions. Catalysts: 1) Politburo meeting in July to set the policy tone; 2) The impact of the pace of the Fed’s interest rate cuts on the CNH market; 3) The stock price performance and trading volume changes of related stocks before and after the expiration of unbanned stocks.

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