"Computing power anxiety" triggers global technology stock shocks: short-term disturbances will not change the long-term trend
Recently, affected by the news that Meta plans to sell idle AI computing power, the global market has begun to speculate on whether AI capital expenditures have entered an inflection point, and the technology sector that was strong in the early stage has simultaneously experienced a correction. In this regard, many public funds believe that short-term emotional disturbances will not change the long-term positive outlook of the industry, and the sustainability of the semiconductor market still relies on verification of financial reports and overseas capital expenditure data.
Recently, affected by the news that Meta plans to sell idle AI computing power, the global market has begun to speculate on whether AI capital expenditures have entered an inflection point, and the technology sector that was strong in the early stage has simultaneously experienced a correction. In this regard, many public funds believe that short-term emotional disturbances will not change the long-term positive outlook of the industry, and the sustainability of the semiconductor market still relies on verification of financial reports and overseas capital expenditure data. Wanjia Fund believes that the market's sensitive reaction to Meta-related news reflects a concern: If large technology platforms begin to sell computing resources to external parties, does it mean that the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure investment in the past two years is approaching an inflection point. However, the basis for judging a trend reversal in the AI capital expenditure cycle based on a single event is not yet sufficient. "The current demand for high-quality computing power resources by global leading model manufacturers is still the focus of the market - whether it is the continuous iteration of large models, optimization of inference efficiency, or the expansion of multi-modal capabilities and the accelerated implementation of Agent-related applications, it is inseparable from the strong support of computing power and infrastructure. In this context, it is too hasty to linearly extrapolate the prosperity of the AI industry chain based on a single event." Wanjia Fund said. Noah Fund stated that the recent fluctuations in the global market, especially in the technology sector, have increased significantly. The essence is a long-short game of funds centered on global capital expenditure expectations and marginal changes in the industry. Despite the intensification of short-term disturbances, the long-term positive trend of industrial fundamentals has not changed. The recent market fluctuations caused by some "noise" may become a mid- to long-term layout window. Noah Fund believes that the recent adjustment is more of a round of structural rebalancing of the market with the help of short-term negative factors, rather than a systemic risk caused by a switch in the core logic of the market. Its disturbing impact will be biased towards the emotional and structural levels. In terms of allocation strategy, the institution will stick to the main line of prosperity and wait for the verification of the semi-annual report performance. Among them: AI is still the direction with the strongest consensus in the current market; some advanced manufacturing sectors, such as AI upstream equipment, battery energy storage, ships and other fields, also have room for upward revisions in their prosperity expectations. China Asset Management believes that to judge the sustainability of the semiconductor market, three core clues should be grasped: first, whether overseas AI capital expenditures can continue to expand; second, the performance of global technology leaders; third, the performance of Changxin Technology after its listing, and the progress of subsequent equipment bidding. From the perspective of Manulife Investment, the long-term development logic of the semiconductor industry is supported by structural demand growth, continued industrial capital investment, and diversified segmentation opportunities. Different from past cyclical market conditions with stronger speculative attributes, this round of industry growth is based on the implementation of physical infrastructure and terminal demand with commercial implementation scenarios, and the foundation for industry development is more solid. The dividends of industry growth have spread to the entire industry chain, and investment choices are no longer highly concentrated on a few industry leaders. "Although the industry still faces risks such as cyclical fluctuations and external uncertainties, the long-term growth logic of the semiconductor industry is clear and stable. It will continue to lead the next stage of global technological innovation and play a core pillar role in global economic development." Manulife Investment said. (