U.S. prediction market users have bet nearly $200 million on midterm elections
U.S. prediction market users have reportedly bet more than $197 million on the outcome of the midterm elections. The report analyzed 1,408 trading markets that are still open on the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket. Both platforms allow users to bet on various events, covering sports events, international events, political elections and other topics. Kalshi prediction market data shows that as of Sunday evening local time, the most likely outcome of the November midterm elections is that the Democrats control both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The market gives a 46% chance of this outcome; a 38% chance of Republicans taking control of the Senate and Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives. The probability data given by the Kalshi prediction market shows that the probability that the Republicans will continue to have a strong control of the House and Senate is 17%; while the probability that the Democrats will win the Senate and the Republicans will retain the House of Representatives is only 1.7%. Betting on elections through prediction markets is nothing new. In the 2024 U.S. election, Polymarket users placed a total of $3.2 billion in bets on the election between Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris, with most of the chips on Trump's side. In recent months, there have been a number of cases involving people suspected of using inside information to make bets in the U.S. prediction market. Last month, federal prosecutors in New York indicted a employees, accused of using undisclosed data to place bets on the company’s 2025 trending search results. The U.S. Department of Justice in April charged U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with making bets on Polymarket based on inside details obtained from preparations for the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke allegedly placed bets ahead of the start of the U.S. military raid on Venezuela on January 3 this year and made more than $400,000 in profits from those bets. Although people can bet on election results, and the scale of betting related to this midterm election is huge, a majority of respondents to a recent poll believe that such betting should be illegal. The poll was conducted by the Public First research agency from May 17 to 19. The results showed that 44% of the respondents believed that betting on election results should be illegal; 30% of the respondents said that such betting should be legalized, and a quarter of the respondents said they were unclear.