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Traders expect the Fed under War to raise interest rates this month has about a 50% chance

2026-07-13·newswire-us-stock-212339

Traders expect the Fed under War to raise interest rates this month has about a 50% chance.

Traders see a close to 50-50 chance of a U.S. interest rate hike later this month as another rise in oil prices and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials signal that the central bank may move quickly to curb inflation.

Money market pricing on Monday showed traders had increased bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in July after the United States launched a series of new strikes against Iran; pricing showed the likelihood of a rate hike was close to 50%, up from less than 40% earlier in the day, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers may need to raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to show widespread price pressures.

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to changes in Fed policy expectations, once rose 7 basis points to 4.28%, the highest since February 2025. The 5-year yield hit a similar high of 4.37%, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as much as 6 basis points to 4.62%, the highest since May. The rise in U.S.

bond yields comes as the U.S. releases consumer and producer price data this week, with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also set to testify. Waller said if core inflation data released on Tuesday is on the hot side, officials will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.

"The market has raised its expectations for recent interest rate hikes based on the message delivered by Waller," said Molly Brooks, U.S. interest rate strategist at TD Securities.

"This makes tomorrow's CPI data even more important and may therefore trigger more volatility; if the data is hot, the yield curve faces the risk of further flattening." "Investors are still focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29, viewing it as a possible time for Warsh to raise interest rates for the first time," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S.

interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "Tuesday's consumer price index (CPI) and Warsh's speech will undoubtedly influence the market's judgment on this probability." Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed

#Stocks #Fed #Bonds #Oil

Full text

Traders expect the Fed under War to raise interest rates this month has about a 50% chance

Traders see a close to 50-50 chance of a U.S. interest rate hike later this month as another rise in oil prices and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials signal that the central bank may move quickly to curb inflation. Money market pricing on Monday showed traders had increased bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in July after the United States launched a series of new strikes against Iran; pricing showed the likelihood of a rate hike was close to 50%, up from less than 40% earlier in the day, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers may need to raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to show widespread price pressures. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to changes in Fed policy expectations, once rose 7 basis points to 4.28%, the highest since February 2025. The 5-year yield hit a similar high of 4.37%, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as much as 6 basis points to 4.62%, the highest since May. The rise in U.S. bond yields comes as the U.S. releases consumer and producer price data this week, with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also set to testify. Waller said if core inflation data released on Tuesday is on the hot side, officials will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. "The market has raised its expectations for recent interest rate hikes based on the message delivered by Waller," said Molly Brooks, U.S. interest rate strategist at TD Securities. "This makes tomorrow's CPI data even more important and may therefore trigger more volatility; if the data is hot, the yield curve faces the risk of further flattening." "Investors are still focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29, viewing it as a possible time for Warsh to raise interest rates for the first time," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "Tuesday's consumer price index (CPI) and Warsh's speech will undoubtedly influence the market's judgment on this probability." Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed

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