TSMC’s June revenue bucks trend and rises; AI chips support performance fundamentals
According to the monthly financial report, the company's consolidated revenue in June reached NT$442.68 billion, an increase of 6.2% from May and a 67.9% increase from last year. TSMC’s cumulative revenue in the first half of the year was NT$2.4 trillion, approximately US$74.99 billion, an increase of 35.6% compared with the same period in 2025. Over the past four years, TSMC's June revenue has declined from May. Sravan Kundojala, an analyst at the semiconductor analysis agency SemiAnalysis, said in an interview that this year's revenue bucked the trend and performed very strongly. This phenomenon of breaking seasonal conventions has attracted the attention of many analysts. Compared with the dazzling year-on-year growth rate, this signal of off-season growth is more worthy of in-depth interpretation. TSMC’s monthly revenue for the three months of April, May, and June can basically outline the overall performance of the second quarter in advance. Kundo Jara calculated that the total revenue in the second quarter has exceeded the upper limit of guidance given by TSMC in the first quarter financial report by US$40.2 billion (the guidance is based on fixed exchange rate calculations). This is also a key benefit released by the revenue data in June. The increase in revenue is not due to a sudden surge in downstream demand. The essence is that advanced process production capacity is completely in short supply. Kundo Jara pointed out that TSMC’s N3 (3nm) process capacity has now been sold out, and this year’s mainstream flagship AI graphics cards and CPUs are almost all manufactured using this process. ) are TSMC’s top customers. Nvidia and Apple are both among the "Seven Technology Heroes" of the U.S. stock market, but TSMC is not included in this list. AI chip business officially becomes TSMC’s core growth engine Kundo Jara revealed that TSMC’s AI chip-related revenue is expected to exceed US$40 billion in 2026, accounting for nearly 25% of the company’s total revenue. A few years ago, AI chip foundry was insignificant in TSMC’s revenue, but now it accounts for nearly a quarter of the overall revenue. Revenue is highly tied to a single business, which has both advantages and disadvantages: This also explains why a single advanced process, fully loaded with capacity, can directly reverse the four consecutive years of off-season revenue decline. In the past, the smartphone business determined TSMC's overall revenue rhythm. Now, the company's short-term performance trend is more dominated by the demand for AI-accelerated chips. For investors, the core focus is . When production capacity is in short supply, TSMC has historically maintained quotations or even raised prices for the most advanced processes, rather than relying on low prices and volume to seize orders. Even if the shipment growth of other product lines in the industry slows down, this model can still stabilize the company's gross profit margin level. According to data from the research organization Counterpoint, TSMC’s global pure wafer foundry market share reached 73% in the first quarter of 2026. Such a high market concentration means that the operation of the entire AI supply chain is highly dependent on TSMC's production capacity delivery, and opportunities and industry risks are also highly concentrated. This has also made this Thursday’s earnings conference call attract market attention: investors have already predicted from June data that the company’s performance will exceed previous guidance, and attention will be focused more on management’s stance on production capacity planning and OEM pricing strategies for the second half of the year.