JD.com’s 2Q26 performance will be better than worries, and cautious rating rating under low valuation highlights defensive value (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley expects JD.com’s second-quarter 2026 performance to be better than the market’s pessimistic expectations.
Morgan Stanley expects JD.com’s second-quarter 2026 performance to be better than the market’s pessimistic expectations. The group's revenue is forecast to fall 3% year-on-year to 345.57 billion yuan, with non-GAAP net profit reaching 8.4 billion yuan, a solid performance. Despite facing a high base and weak consumption, revenue growth is expected to pick up in the second half. New business investment maintained the status quo, and the narrowing of food delivery losses was offset by other investments. One-sentence conclusion: The bottom of JD.com's performance may have appeared. The low valuation provides a margin of safety, but it lacks a strong growth catalyst and has limited room for rebound. Positive/negative: Neutral impact on JD.com (JD.US). Expectations of better-than-worried performance have been partially priced in by the market (part of the price in), but the cautious rating rating indicates a lack of upward drive. Catalysts: 1) 2Q26 official financial report; 2) whether revenue growth can pick up as expected in the second half of the year; 3) improvement in profit margins in new businesses such as retail media and logistics services.