New energy vehicle weekly report for the 28th week: retail sales decline narrowed, NIO and Xpeng orders improved, and industry margins recovered (Goldman Sachs)
Goldman Sachs' latest weekly data on new energy vehicles in China shows a positive sign.
Goldman Sachs' latest weekly data on new energy vehicles in China shows a positive sign. The year-on-year decline in passenger vehicle retail sales in the 28th week narrowed compared with the first half of the year. Among key brands, weekly orders for Weilai, Leapao and Xiaopeng increased by 13%, 10% and 5% respectively from the previous month. At the same time, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 7.3% month-on-month, which benefited downstream vehicle costs. The industry is currently in a stage of gradual recovery from pessimistic data. One-sentence conclusion: The worst time for the new energy vehicle industry may be over, and the pick-up in orders from leading new forces indicates an improvement in the competitive landscape and demand resilience. Positive/negative: It is positive for car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Leapmotor and other car companies that have increased orders. The decline in lithium carbonate prices is good for the profitability of the entire new energy vehicle industry chain. The market's pessimistic expectations of weak industry demand may be peaking, but the persistence of order data remains to be seen. Catalysts: 1) Subsequent weekly orders and retail sales data confirm the recovery trend; 2) The release and delivery of new models of each brand in the second half of the year; 3) Whether the industry price war will further intensify.