TSMC’s 2Q26 performance outlook: The probability of raising guidance is high, and the three scenarios correspond to different increases (Morgan Stanley)

Street Signal | TSMC’s 2Q26 performance outlook: The probability of raising guidance is high, and the three scenarios correspond to different increases (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley released a research report on TSMC, highlights investors to increase their holdings. The stock price is bullish by 3-5% under an optimistic scenario. The core logic is that AI demand cannot be met until the end of this century. One sentence conclusion: TSMC's 2Q26 forecast will be a key node to test the strength of AI demand.

The upward guidance is almost certain, and the stock price still has room to rise. Good/bad: Good for TSMC (2330.TW) and the global AI chip industry chain. The market has already expected TSMC to raise its guidance, but the specific extent of the increase (40% vs. 35%) will be the watershed that determines the future trend of the stock price. Catalysts:

1) TSMC’s 2Q26 conference in July (third quarter guidance, full-year capital expenditures, AI revenue compound growth rate); 2) subsequent financial reports from major customers such as AMD and NVIDIA.