China's import and export in June exceeded expectations, with semiconductors and AI products becoming the core driving forces (Nomura/Goldman Sachs)
Nomura and Goldman Sachs both pointed out that China's June trade data significantly exceeded expectations.
Nomura and Goldman Sachs both pointed out that China's June trade data significantly exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 27.0% year-on-year, imports increased by 36.0% year-on-year, and the trade surplus expanded to a record monthly level of US$125.6 billion. The core driver comes from semiconductor trade and AI-related products, with price effects taking the leading role, and automobile exports also being an important driver. One-sentence conclusion: China’s trade structure is accelerating its transformation towards high-end manufacturing. Semiconductors and AI products have become new export engines, far exceeding market expectations. Positive/negative: Positive for the semiconductor industry chain, AI hardware exporters and shipbuilding industry. It is a positive signal for the overall macro economy. The market may have underreacted to such strong monthly data (there is an expectation gap). Catalysts: 1) Import and export data in July and subsequent months to test the sustainability of growth; 2) Global semiconductor sales cycle and AI capital expenditure rhythm; 3) Changes in Sino-US trade policies.