Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market model update: The U.S. market size in 2031 is expected to reach US$102 billion (Bernstein)
Bernstein updated Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market model.
Bernstein updated Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market model. It is expected that the U.S. brand GLP-1 market will reach US$102 billion in 2031, and Eli Lilly can occupy about 70% of the market. Among them, Mounjaro and Zepbound are the main players, with oral preparations accounting for about 22% of the peak market share. Retatrutide is expected to contribute 11% of incretin revenue. One-sentence conclusion: The growth space of the GLP-1 market far exceeds current recognition. Eli Lilly's market leadership and profit prospects will continue to exceed expectations by leveraging the combined advantages of multiple products. Good/bad: Good for Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and the GLP-1 industry chain. The market has a certain consensus on the huge size of the GLP-1 market, but Lilly's specific revenue expectations in markets outside the United States may be low. Catalysts: 1) Clinical and launch progress of oral GLP-1 drugs (such as Orforglipron); 2) Medicare coverage and sales data in markets outside the United States; 3) Phase III data for Retatrutide.