Lp(a) - Battle for the throne of new cardiovascular drugs: HORIZON trial results will determine the outcome (Goldman Sachs)
Goldman Sachs conducted an in-depth analysis of Lp(a), a genetic risk factor that affects approximately 1.4 billion people worldwide, independent of other factors.
Goldman Sachs conducted an in-depth analysis of Lp(a), a genetic risk factor that affects approximately 1.4 billion people worldwide, independent of other factors. Development is currently entering a critical validation phase. Novartis/IONIS's HORIZON phase III trial is the first study to test whether lowering Lp(a) can bring cardiovascular benefits. Market expectations for this are low. Once successful, it will benefit similar pipelines of companies such as Amgen and Eli Lilly. One sentence conclusion: The HORIZON trial is the "judgment day" for the Lp(a) track. If successful, it will open up a huge new cardiovascular drug market. Failure may drag down the valuation of the entire R&D pipeline. Good/bad: Success will be good for Novartis (NVS), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY) and other companies holding Lp(a) pipelines; failure will be bad for the entire track. The market is currently pricing success low, meaning the upside outweighs the downside risk. Catalysts: 1) HORIZON trial data in the third quarter of 2026; 2) clinical data of Eli Lilly’s oral Lp(a) drug muvalaplin; 3) related policies to increase Lp(a) detection rate.