US stock market 2Q financial report preview: Profit resilience drives the rally to spread, and AI benefits clearly (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley believes that the range of U.S.
Morgan Stanley believes that the range of U.S. stocks leading the gains will continue to expand, and profitability resilience is the core driver. S&P 500 second-quarter EPS is expected to increase by 19% year-on-year, and revenue will increase by 9% year-on-year. AI application momentum continues to accumulate, and the profit growth gap between Mag 7 and S&P 493 will gradually narrow. It is highlights to focus on cyclical sectors that benefit from the AI industry chain and capital expenditures. One-sentence conclusion: The profit base of U.S. stocks is broad and stable, and the market is spreading outward from the leading AI companies. The earnings season will be the best window to verify investment logic and explore the leading sectors in the next stage. Good/bad: Good for optional consumption, transportation and other cyclical sectors that benefit from profit diffusion, and good for the entire AI industry chain. The market may be overly concerned about the macro economy, while underestimating the resilience of micro-corporate earnings. Catalysts: 1) Second-quarter financial reports and performance guidance from industry leaders; 2) Quantitative evidence of artificial intelligence-related spending; 3) Inflation and employment data before the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting.