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Driven by AI, advanced packaging orders surge, the gap between supply and demand for ABF carrier boards expands, and the industrial chain welcomes both volume and price increases (

2026-07-15·ima-daily5min-0715-46-fa182f298e

Street Signal | Driven by AI, advanced packaging orders surge, the gap between supply and demand for ABF carrier boards expands, and the industrial chain welcomes both volume and price increases (

Nomura Securities reported that the semiconductor packaging substrate (Packaging Substrate) industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI. Data show that in June 2026, global packaging substrate shipments increased by 36% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, significantly exceeding market expectations for only a moderate recovery in the industry.

This growth is mainly driven by ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) carrier boards as the packaging demand for AI GPU, ASIC and HBM surges, while BT carrier boards are relatively stable.

The logic behind it is that AI chips have put forward rigid demands for more complex, larger-sized, and higher-layer ABF carrier boards, and the current production capacity expansion rate (approximately 15-20%) cannot keep up with demand growth, resulting in a continued expansion of the supply-demand gap.

This brings clear opportunities for both volume and price (ASP) growth for leading ABF carrier board suppliers. One-sentence conclusion: AI is the core engine driving the explosion of demand for advanced packaging. ABF carrier boards are the key bottleneck for AI chip packaging.

Its tight supply and demand will push the industry into a new round of booming cycles with both volume and price rising. Positive/negative: Positive for ABF carrier board suppliers such as Xinxing Electronics (3037.TW), Ibiden, and AT&S.

The current stock price may have reflected part of the recovery expectations, but the duration of the supply and demand gap and the upward flexibility of ASP have not yet been fully priced. Catalysts:

1) The AI chip specifications and packaging technology roadmap to be released by major chip manufacturers (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel);

2) The latest monthly revenue data of the leading ABF carrier board, verifying ASP and shipment trends;

3) Changes in the penetration rate of HBM3e/4 will directly affect the demand density of high-end ABF carrier boards.

Full text

Driven by AI, advanced packaging orders surge, the gap between supply and demand for ABF carrier boards expands, and the industrial chain welcomes both volume and price increases (

Nomura Securities reported that the semiconductor packaging substrate (Packaging Substrate) industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI.

Nomura Securities reported that the semiconductor packaging substrate (Packaging Substrate) industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI. Data show that in June 2026, global packaging substrate shipments increased by 36% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, significantly exceeding market expectations for only a moderate recovery in the industry. This growth is mainly driven by ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) carrier boards as the packaging demand for AI GPU, ASIC and HBM surges, while BT carrier boards are relatively stable. The logic behind it is that AI chips have put forward rigid demands for more complex, larger-sized, and higher-layer ABF carrier boards, and the current production capacity expansion rate (approximately 15-20%) cannot keep up with demand growth, resulting in a continued expansion of the supply-demand gap. This brings clear opportunities for both volume and price (ASP) growth for leading ABF carrier board suppliers. One-sentence conclusion: AI is the core engine driving the explosion of demand for advanced packaging. ABF carrier boards are the key bottleneck for AI chip packaging. Its tight supply and demand will push the industry into a new round of booming cycles with both volume and price rising. Positive/negative: Positive for ABF carrier board suppliers such as Xinxing Electronics (3037.TW), Ibiden, and AT&S. The current stock price may have reflected part of the recovery expectations, but the duration of the supply and demand gap and the upward flexibility of ASP have not yet been fully priced. Catalysts: 1) The AI chip specifications and packaging technology roadmap to be released by major chip manufacturers (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel); 2) The latest monthly revenue data of the leading ABF carrier board, verifying ASP and shipment trends; 3) Changes in the penetration rate of HBM3e/4 will directly affect the demand density of high-end ABF carrier boards.

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