New ship orders are divided: orders for major ship types improved but gas ships declined, with Chinese shipyards’ market share reaching 85% (Goldman Sachs)
Goldman Sachs' July global shipyard log shows that the structure of new shipbuilding orders has diverged.
Goldman Sachs' July global shipyard log shows that the structure of new shipbuilding orders has diverged. Data show that in the first half of 2026 (1H26), except for gas carriers, new orders for major ship types have achieved year-on-year growth. However, the total monthly order volume in June (8 ships/424,000 CGT) fell sharply month-on-month, far below the level of previous months. Among them, the improvement in orders for oil tankers and bulk carriers is the highlight, but the demand for gas carriers (LNG/LPG) has significantly cooled down. What is even more striking is that Chinese shipyards’ global new order market share soared to 85% in May-June, setting a new high. The logic behind it is that the overwhelming advantages of Chinese shipyards in terms of funds, delivery time and comprehensive costs enable shipowners to "vote with orders" and accelerate their transfer to China. One sentence conclusion: Global shipbuilding orders are undergoing structural adjustments. The gas ship boom is slowing down while traditional merchant ship orders are picking up. The "monopoly" market share of Chinese shipyards is fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of the global shipbuilding industry. Positive/negative: Positive for large Chinese state-owned and private shipyards such as China Shipbuilding Industry, Yangtze River Shipbuilding Industry, and CSSC Defense. It is negative for South Korea (Samsung Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding, Hyundai Heavy Industries) and Japanese shipyards. The market is fully aware of the advantages of Chinese shipyards, but may underestimate its pricing power after its share reaches an absolute leadership position. Catalysts: 1) The subsequent new ship signing plans of major global shipowners (such as Maersk and MSC); 2) Changes in freight rates in the LNG/LPG transportation market will reflect whether gas ship orders have bottomed out; 3) The price trend of shipbuilding raw materials such as steel plates will affect shipyard profit margins.