Shared travel revolution: The shift from “ownership” to “right to use” in the Japanese automobile industry will reshape the valuation logic (Bernstein)
The Bernstein report provides an in-depth analysis of the profound impact of shared mobility on the Japanese automobile industry.
The Bernstein report provides an in-depth analysis of the profound impact of shared mobility on the Japanese automobile industry. The core idea is that this revolution is moving from concept to reality and will profoundly change the business models and valuation foundations of automakers, parts suppliers, and financial services companies. The report notes that the commercialization of mobility as a service (MaaS) and self-driving taxis is accelerating, especially in core cities such as Tokyo. This poses a challenge to automakers that have traditionally relied on a "volume-profit" model, as demand will shift from individual purchases to fleet purchases and usage rights payments. At the same time, giants such as Toyota are already actively developing their plans by investing in Didi, Pony.ai and self-developed Woven Planet. The market still generally adopts the traditional PB/PE valuation framework, ignoring the potential revaluation brought about by business model transformation. One-sentence conclusion: The implementation of shared travel and autonomous driving will subvert the old valuation model of the Japanese automobile industry where "sales is king". Leading companies with mobile service platform attributes will enjoy valuation premiums. Good/bad: Good for Toyota (7203.T), which is actively developing mobile travel platforms; bad for companies that are highly dependent on traditional dealers and the used car market. The market is already aware of the concept of shared travel, but the actual profit model and valuation evolution brought about by its large-scale commercialization may be significantly underestimated. Catalysts: 1) Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s approval of L4 autonomous driving in specific areas; 2) Toyota’s joint venture with Pony.ai and the latest operational data from Woven City; 3) The business expansion of Didi and other platforms in Japan.