Space X’s stock price was close to its IPO price in its first month of listing, wiping out nearly US$850 billion in market value and triggering market concerns
SpaceX's stock price fell for the third consecutive trading day, and the closing price was close to the initial public offering (IPO) issue price. This trend not only casts doubts on the market's future performance of this historic large-scale IPO, but also reflects the structural fragility of this year's U.S. new stock market with high valuations and high volatility. The stock price hits the issuance price, the valuation bubble resonates with the pressure to lift the ban At the close of trading on Tuesday, SpaceX (stock code: SPCX) shares fell 2.2% to close at $136.08 per share, just one step away from the IPO price of $135 last month. Compared with the historical highs after its listing, the stock price of this star company that integrates rockets, satellites and artificial intelligence founded by Elon Musk has fallen by one-third, and its market value has evaporated by nearly US$850 billion. Market analysts pointed out that SpaceX's stock price faced the risk of "breaking" in the first month of listing, directly breaking the growth expectations carefully created by the company and underwriters, and causing a heavy blow to subsequent market confidence. Currently, there are two main core factors causing continued pressure on SpaceX’s stock price: Valuation multiple is too high: Data shows that SpaceX’s current forward price-to-sales ratio (P/S) has exceeded 30 times, ranking The camp with the highest valuation of the 100 Index is second only to highly valued technology companies such as Palantir. Facing a wave of unblocking of restricted shares: Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, pointed out that SpaceX has not yet hit the bottom. In the next few months, restricted stocks held by insiders will gradually be lifted and flooded into the market. The continued increase in stock supply will suppress stock prices for a long time. The willingness of market funds to take over remains to be seen. Wall Street's stance is divided: Institutions are singing the bullish tune, while retail investors are intensifying their game It is worth noting that just a week before the stock price approached the issuance price, SpaceX had just been included in the Nasdaq 100 Index through fast-track admission rules. Despite the recent downturn in the secondary market, including More than a dozen mainstream investment banks, including the company, have previously given the company a "buy" or equivalent rating. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that among Wall Street analysts tracking SpaceX, more than 80% hold a bullish stance, with an average target price of $236.25, more than 70% higher than the current closing price. Talley Leger, chief market strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, said that if the stock price decline continues to expand, given the company's industry representation and vision, falling below the issue price may stimulate the willingness to buy on dips from funds that did not win the lottery in the early stage. Volatility in the new stock market intensifies, and U.S. stock IPO returns will come under pressure in 2026 In response to the current fluctuations, Truist Wealth's tracking research on 30 large technology stock IPOs in the past 15 years shows that the average maximum decline in new stocks in the first year of listing can reach 55%. SpaceX's violent shock is not an isolated case. In fact, SpaceX’s surge and fall is a microcosm of the overall uncertainty in the U.S. IPO market this year. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that six of the top 10 IPOs this year have seen their share prices fall below their first-day closing prices. As of July 13, after excluding blank check companies, the weighted average return of new U.S. stocks in 2026 has narrowed to 5.3%, which is only half of the increase in the S&P 500 Index during the same period. Market analysts believe that as giant projects such as SpaceX and South Korean chip giant SK Hynix have completed record-breaking listings in the past month, the trading performance of the above-mentioned iconic new stocks in the next few weeks will become a key indicator for assessing changes in liquidity and risk appetite in the U.S. capital market.