Demand for AI chips is booming, ASML raised its revenue forecast for the second time this year, and its stock price rose 5%
Special topic: Focus on the second quarter financial report of US stocks in 2026 Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML raised its performance guidance for the second time in fiscal 2026. Chip manufacturers and other chip manufacturers are accelerating production expansion to cope with the production capacity needs brought about by the outbreak of the AI industry. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said that order demand in the first half of the year was "extremely strong" and downstream customers have accelerated their production expansion plans. Driven by the continued increase in AI chip production capacity by downstream manufacturers, ASML raised its full-year performance guidance for the second time in this year on Wednesday and announced quarterly financial results that exceeded expectations. The Dutch semiconductor equipment company's latest estimate is that the full-year total revenue range has been raised to 43 billion to 45 billion euros (equivalent to 49 billion U.S. dollars), with a gross profit margin of 54% to 56%. The company had previously forecast full-year net sales of 36 billion to 40 billion euros and a gross profit margin of 51% to 53%. The stock once soared more than 7% at the opening, and then the gains narrowed, with the latest increase of 4.8%; the cumulative increase in the stock price during the year has reached 115%. Second-quarter results vs. Refinitiv consensus expectations Net sales: 9.3 billion euros, market forecast 8.8 billion euros Net profit: 2.9 billion euros, market forecast 2.6 billion euros ASML is Europe's most valuable company and the only manufacturer in the world that can produce extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are used to manufacture the world's most advanced process chips. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said new orders in the first half of the year were "extremely strong." Based on this demand momentum, the company plans to increase its low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet (low NA EUV) production capacity and deep ultraviolet immersion (DUV) production capacity by 30% in 2026. ASML had raised its performance guidance once last quarter due to strong demand for high-end EUV equipment. Currently, chip manufacturers continue to expand production to meet the demand for AI computing power, and demand for high-end equipment is expected to remain high. Fouquet said in an announcement on Wednesday that the company's customers are continuing to "accelerate production capacity expansion plans." Orders for all product lines have been locked in by customers for a long time, and the company's visibility into long-term demand has been greatly improved. Morningstar senior equity analyst Javier Corleonero said in an interview: "ASML's production capacity expansion is progressing smoothly and it has multiple means to increase production." He said that on the one hand, the company is optimizing the dust-free workshop space in Veldhofen (where DUV and EUV equipment are produced) to increase production capacity, and on the other hand, it is implementing a "quick delivery" plan to speed up shipments. Evidence of upstream customer demand Earlier this week, ASML’s core major customer TSMC disclosed that revenue in June surged 68% year-on-year, driven by chip demand. Reuters quoted Taiwan Science and Technology Minister Wu Cheng-wen as saying on Sunday that TSMC plans to build two new advanced chip packaging factories in the Chiayi Science Park in southern Taiwan. Analysts pointed out in a research report on July 10 that global fab expansion and AI are driving demand for advanced process chips, and ASML’s performance in the second half of the year is expected to continue to strengthen. Business with China and Export Control Risks Despite strong industry demand, market investors are worried about whether the high capital expenditures in the AI track can be maintained in the long term, putting the overall semiconductor sector under pressure; at the same time, export controls on ASML's high-end equipment to China continue to tighten. In April this year, U.S. lawmakers from both parties jointly proposed a bill to ban ASML from selling DUV lithography machines to Chinese chip companies, further compressing the already shrinking revenue in the Chinese market. Affected by this news, ASML's stock price fell 6% at the time. The bill still needs to go through the U.S. legislative process. Morningstar analyst Corleonero said that regulatory policies sometimes have a reverse stimulating effect: every time before the introduction of new regulations, Chinese customers would intensively purchase equipment, triggering a periodic peak in demand. But he also pointed out that ASML's own operating quality is excellent, but market expectations have been overstretched. "The current stock price has been fully overdrawn and we believe the valuation is slightly high." The analyst said, "Intuitively, ASML's current forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 50 times, which is the same as the peak valuation during the epidemic; we estimate that the reasonable forward price-to-earnings ratio range is only 35-40 times." ASML revealed on Wednesday that the company's full-year revenue from the Chinese market is expected to remain around 20%.
Chief Financial Officer Roger Dason said in the video interview minutes: "The demand trend in the Chinese market is in sync with the overall global market." The company said it will release an update on its mid- and long-term strategic goals at the Capital Markets Day event on June 10 next year.
Chief Financial Officer Roger Dason said in the video interview minutes: "The demand trend in the Chinese market is in sync with the overall global market." The company said it will release an update on its mid- and long-term strategic goals at the Capital Markets Day event on June 10 next year.