Housing price data in 70 cities: first-tier cities rose month-on-month, second- and third-tier cities saw a narrowing of declines, and second-hand housing prices still fell sharply
A Goldman Sachs report shows that the National Bureau of Statistics' housing price data for 70 cities shows that the weighted average annualized price decline of new homes in 70 cities narrowed after seasonality adjustment.
A Goldman Sachs report shows that the National Bureau of Statistics' housing price data for 70 cities shows that the weighted average annualized price decline of new homes in 70 cities narrowed after seasonality adjustment. Housing prices in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, and the month-on-month decline in housing prices in second- and third-tier cities also narrowed. The weighted average annual price decline in the 70-city second-hand housing market has also narrowed compared with the previous month. However, third-party platform data shows that second-hand housing prices have fallen by 5-10% in the past year. New home sales in 30 cities in June were slightly lower than the same period last year, and the inventory depletion cycle in major cities dropped from the previous month. The market may react positively to signals of stabilizing house prices, but attention should be paid to the fact that second-hand home prices are still falling. One-sentence conclusion: The month-on-month increase in new home prices in first-tier cities is a positive sign, but the decline in second-hand home prices is still large. It will still take time for the overall real estate market to stabilize. Pay attention to the sustainability of price increases in first-tier cities. Positive/negative: Positive for real estate developers in first-tier cities (such as Beijing and Shanghai), such as Vanke (000002.SZ/2202.HK), Poly Development (600048.SH), etc. The market's expectations for stabilization of housing prices have been partially reflected, but the sustainability of the improvement remains to be seen. Catalysts: 1) Housing price data in 70 cities in July, verifying the sustainability of price increases in first-tier cities; 2) Changes in the number of second-hand housing listings, judging supply pressure; 3) Further developments in real estate policies (such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions).