iPhone/iPad assembly volume forecast for the third quarter remains unchanged, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and folding screen plans have been clarified (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley released monthly data on technology hardware in Greater China, maintaining its estimates for the assembly volume of 54 million iPhone units and 13 million iPad units in the third quarter unchanged.
Morgan Stanley released monthly data on technology hardware in Greater China, maintaining its estimates for the assembly volume of 54 million iPhone units and 13 million iPad units in the third quarter unchanged. In the second quarter, the assembly volume of both types of products was in line with expectations. iPhone assembly volume in the second quarter performed better than seasonal regular levels, reflecting the good actual sales of iPhones. At the same time, relevant plans for iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and folding screen models have been clear. The report predicts that there will be 7-8 million iPhone Fold units assembled in 2H26. The market is divided on iPhone shipments, with MS's stable forecast suggesting demand may be better than feared. One-sentence conclusion: The iPhone 3Q assembly volume estimate remains unchanged, verifying the resilience of demand. The iPhone 18 series and folding screen plans are clear to provide support for future growth. Good/bad: Good for Apple (AAPL.US) and its supply chain, such as Hon Hai (2317.TW), Pegatron (4938.TW), etc. The market's concerns about weak iPhone demand may be overdone. MS's stable forecast provides a positive signal, but attention needs to be paid to subsequent actual sales data. Catalysts: 1) iPhone 18 series release and pre-order data; 2) iPhone Fold mass production progress; 3) Apple's quarterly financial report to verify iPhone sales.