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U.S. stocks enter earnings season, and market focus turns to AI investment return rate (Morgan Stanley)

2026-07-16·ima-daily5min-0716-45-b0d3cf46ed
Street Signal | U.S. stocks enter earnings season, and market focus turns to AI investment return rate (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley released a research report on the North American Internet industry, and its overall view on the industry is "attractive." The report shows that the market has entered a period of intensive financial report disclosure, and the main focus has shifted from macro to micro. The core issue is the return rate on AI capital expenditure (ROIC).

In terms of key stocks: META led the way with a weekly increase of 14.8%, AMZN rose 1.1%, the market value-weighted weekly increase of the digital advertising sector reached 3.6%, the e-commerce sector increased 1.1%, the sharing economy sector 0.4%, and the tourism sector fell 1.7%.

This shows that the market no longer just pays for AI slogans, but has begun to distinguish between "real investment, real returns" and "pure stories." The benefits of the AI theme have been partially priced in, but whether the financial report can deliver on efficiency and revenue guidance will be the catalyst and risk in the next stage.

One-sentence conclusion: The AI story is coming to an end, and the market has entered the "data-speak" stage. Whoever can prove that AI investment brings returns will be able to get the next round of valuation premiums. Good/bad: Good for leaders (META, AMZN) with eye-catching ROIC data and real business growth. It is negative for U.S.

Internet companies whose ROIC is lower than expected or which are purely speculation concepts. Price in situation: There is obvious differentiation within the sector. Companies with high ROIC have received additional premiums, but the overall positive pricing of AI is very sufficient. Catalysts:

1) Q2 financial reports of META, AMZN and other giants and their AI business ROIC data;

2) The strength of the advertising market recovery and changes in user growth costs;

3) The preliminary verification of e-commerce conversion rates and profit margins by AI tools.

Full text

U.S. stocks enter earnings season, and market focus turns to AI investment return rate (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley released a research report on the North American Internet industry, and its overall view on the industry is "attractive." The report shows that the market has entered a period of intensive financial report disclosure, and the main focus has shif

Morgan Stanley released a research report on the North American Internet industry, and its overall view on the industry is "attractive." The report shows that the market has entered a period of intensive financial report disclosure, and the main focus has shifted from macro to micro. The core issue is the return rate on AI capital expenditure (ROIC). In terms of key stocks: META led the way with a weekly increase of 14.8%, AMZN rose 1.1%, the market value-weighted weekly increase of the digital advertising sector reached 3.6%, the e-commerce sector increased 1.1%, the sharing economy sector 0.4%, and the tourism sector fell 1.7%. This shows that the market no longer just pays for AI slogans, but has begun to distinguish between "real investment, real returns" and "pure stories." The benefits of the AI theme have been partially priced in, but whether the financial report can deliver on efficiency and revenue guidance will be the catalyst and risk in the next stage. One-sentence conclusion: The AI story is coming to an end, and the market has entered the "data-speak" stage. Whoever can prove that AI investment brings returns will be able to get the next round of valuation premiums. Good/bad: Good for leaders (META, AMZN) with eye-catching ROIC data and real business growth. It is negative for U.S. Internet companies whose ROIC is lower than expected or which are purely speculation concepts. Price in situation: There is obvious differentiation within the sector. Companies with high ROIC have received additional premiums, but the overall positive pricing of AI is very sufficient. Catalysts: 1) Q2 financial reports of META, AMZN and other giants and their AI business ROIC data; 2) The strength of the advertising market recovery and changes in user growth costs; 3) The preliminary verification of e-commerce conversion rates and profit margins by AI tools.

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