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China's export growth rate reached 17.6% in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations. The July Politburo meeting may be a window for policy adjustment (UBS)

2026-07-16·ima-daily5min-0716-53-d32f6d93be

Street Signal | China's export growth rate reached 17.6% in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations. The July Politburo meeting may be a window for policy adjustment (UBS)

UBS analyzed China's export data in the first half of the year: a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, driven by IT products, automobiles and non-technology categories. Exports to the EU and Belt and Road economies rebounded, while exports to the United States maintained growth on a low base.

Imports increased by 36% year-on-year, with IT-related imports being the primary driving force. Crude oil imports fell to recent lows. The monthly trade surplus exceeds US$125 billion. The report emphasizes that strong exports confirm the improvement of the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry.

But at the same time, domestic activity indicators are weak, and the July Politburo meeting will be an important observation window for policy adjustments. The market is generally concerned about weak domestic demand, but has not fully priced in the positive effects of improved export competitiveness (such as record trade surplus).

One-sentence conclusion: Exports were the biggest highlight of China's economy in the first half of the year, but the "hot outside and cold inside" pattern means that whether the Politburo meeting in July will release a signal to stimulate domestic demand will determine the policy direction and market mainline in the second half of the year.

Positive/negative: Positive for export-oriented industries (IT products, automobiles, machinery and equipment). It is negative for industry expectations that are overly dependent on domestic demand.

Price in situation: The benefits of strong export macro data for A-share related companies are temporarily covered by pessimism, and there is a gap in expectations. Catalysts:

1) The statement of economic policies in the July Politburo meeting draft;

2) Whether monthly trade data in the second half of the year can remain strong;

3) Whether domestic consumption and investment activity indicators stabilize.

Full text

China's export growth rate reached 17.6% in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations. The July Politburo meeting may be a window for policy adjustment (UBS)

UBS analyzed China's export data in the first half of the year: a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, driven by IT products, automobiles and non-technology categories.

UBS analyzed China's export data in the first half of the year: a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, driven by IT products, automobiles and non-technology categories. Exports to the EU and Belt and Road economies rebounded, while exports to the United States maintained growth on a low base. Imports increased by 36% year-on-year, with IT-related imports being the primary driving force. Crude oil imports fell to recent lows. The monthly trade surplus exceeds US$125 billion. The report emphasizes that strong exports confirm the improvement of the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. But at the same time, domestic activity indicators are weak, and the July Politburo meeting will be an important observation window for policy adjustments. The market is generally concerned about weak domestic demand, but has not fully priced in the positive effects of improved export competitiveness (such as record trade surplus). One-sentence conclusion: Exports were the biggest highlight of China's economy in the first half of the year, but the "hot outside and cold inside" pattern means that whether the Politburo meeting in July will release a signal to stimulate domestic demand will determine the policy direction and market mainline in the second half of the year. Positive/negative: Positive for export-oriented industries (IT products, automobiles, machinery and equipment). It is negative for industry expectations that are overly dependent on domestic demand. Price in situation: The benefits of strong export macro data for A-share related companies are temporarily covered by pessimism, and there is a gap in expectations. Catalysts: 1) The statement of economic policies in the July Politburo meeting draft; 2) Whether monthly trade data in the second half of the year can remain strong; 3) Whether domestic consumption and investment activity indicators stabilize.

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