SpaceX goes beyond vertical integration: DVFS framework reveals its unique investment logic in aerospace, connectivity and AI (Morgan Stanley)
Morgan Stanley used the original DVFS framework (dimension, vertical integration, flexibility, speed) to analyze SpaceX (SPCX.US), pointing out that its vertical integration capabilities and rapid iteration characteristics far exceed the industry average.
Morgan Stanley used the original DVFS framework (dimension, vertical integration, flexibility, speed) to analyze SpaceX (SPCX.US), pointing out that its vertical integration capabilities and rapid iteration characteristics far exceed the industry average. 80% of Starship components are self-developed and produced. Vertical integration is fully promoted in the fields of satellites, PCBs, computing power clusters, etc., and the construction efficiency is several times faster than the industry average. The valuation split covers the three major sectors of aerospace, connectivity and AI. The market's valuation of SpaceX is mainly focused on Starlink satellite interconnection, but the cost advantage brought by its vertical integration will enable it to gain competitiveness in the field of AI computing infrastructure that far exceeds current market expectations. Upside risks include Starlink user penetration, AI business multi-cloud platform computer cooperation, etc. One sentence conclusion: SpaceX is not an aerospace company, but an ultimate vertically integrated manufacturing giant wrapped in an aerospace shell. Its DVFS architecture gives it the potential to challenge the traditional cost structure in any field. Positive/negative: Positive for SpaceX. It is detrimental to traditional satellite manufacturers, rocket launch service providers and AI infrastructure companies that rely on outsourcing. Price in situation: The market has not fully priced in the exponential increase in cost and iteration speed brought by its vertical integration. Catalysts: 1) Starship’s reuse success rate and launch cost data; 2) The number of Starlink satellite users has grown beyond expectations; 3) The AI data center project (orbit or ground) contract has been implemented.