Overseas Research and Selection Daily 0716: ANZ: Expectations of interest rate hikes suppress the short-term rise in gold prices, but structural demand still supports the long-term trend
Macroeconomic Goldman Sachs: U.S. PPI in June was lower than expected. Core PCE may only rise 0.17% month-on-month. Goldman Sachs said in its latest research report that the U.S. producer price index (PPI) in June was overall weaker than expected, indicating that upstream price pressures have eased. Combined with previously released CPI data, Goldman Sachs predicts that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index focused on by the Fed will increase by 0.17% month-on-month in June, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 0.18%, and the year-on-year growth rate will be 3.32%.
Goldman Sachs: U.S. PPI in June was lower than expected, core PCE may only rise 0.17% month-on-month Goldman Sachs said in its latest research report that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in June was overall weaker than expected, indicating that upstream price pressures have eased. Combined with previously released CPI data, Goldman Sachs predicts that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index focused on by the Fed will increase by 0.17% month-on-month in June, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 0.18%, and the year-on-year growth rate will be 3.32%. Data show that the U.S. PPI fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, and market expectations were unchanged. Goldman Sachs had previously expected a rise of 0.2%; a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. The core PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than market expectations of 0.3%; the PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose only 0.1%, also lower than expected. The overall PPI and core PPI growth rates in May were also revised down to 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Energy prices fell 6.4% month-on-month, mainly reflecting the fall in oil prices; transportation and warehousing service prices fell 0.1%, and retailer profit margins increased 0.4%. Some prices related to PCE calculations still increased, among which the prices of domestic passenger air tickets and portfolio management services increased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively. Goldman Sachs predicts that the PCE of medical services will increase by 0.39% month-on-month in June, the market-oriented core PCE will increase by 0.19%, and the Dallas Fed's censored average PCE will increase by 0.14%; the overall PCE will decrease by 0.07% month-on-month and increase by 3.70% year-on-year. At the same time, the New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index rose from 5.7 to 15.6 in July, higher than market expectations of 9.2. The new orders, shipments, and employment indices rose to 22.2, 24.4, and 11.4 respectively, indicating improvement in manufacturing activity; the current and expected prices paid, and sales price indices fell across the board, indicating that corporate price pressures have cooled. ING: U.S. inflation has cooled across the board and the Fed may remain on hold until next summer ING said that U.S. inflation in June was significantly weaker than expected and price pressures have broadly eased. The market's bets on the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes are still too high, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve may suspend actions until next summer. Data show that the U.S. CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, and the market expected a decrease of 0.1%; the core CPI remained unchanged month-on-month, lower than the expected increase of 0.2%, and the actual decrease was 0.017% calculated to three decimal places. The year-on-year CPI growth rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%. In terms of items, gasoline prices fell by 9.7% month-on-month, education and communications, clothing, and second-hand cars fell by 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively, and medical services fell by 0.1%; housing costs, which have the largest weight, only increased by 0.1%. Entertainment prices rose 0.5%, one of the few items that showed significant strength. ING pointed out that this cooling in inflation was not driven by a sharp decline in individual items, but was rather widespread. After the data was released, the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields fell by 6 and 10 basis points respectively. The market previously believed that the probability of raising interest rates in July was close to 50%, and currently only accounts for an interest rate hike of less than 4 basis points; expectations for cumulative interest rate hikes before next spring have also dropped from 50 basis points to 44 basis points. ING believes that there are still four downward forces on inflation in the future: energy prices may fall as the situation in the Middle East eases; housing inflation, which accounts for 35% of the CPI weight, will continue to cool down; the labor market is becoming balanced, with about 3% wage growth consistent with the 2% inflation target; and the one-time push from tariffs on prices will also gradually fade. The Dallas Fed estimates that tariffs currently contribute about 0.9 percentage points to core PCE inflation. In June, the U.S. Treasury Department paid $25.5 billion more in tariff refunds than other tariff revenue, and it is expected that about $80 billion remains to be refunded, which will help ease cost pressures on companies. ANZ: Expectations of interest rate hikes suppress short-term upward structural demand for gold prices but still support long-term trends ANZ Bank (ANZ) said in its latest research report that the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hikes this year will continue to limit gold's short-term upside, but the market's re-pricing of hawkish policies has been largely completed, and physical and investment demand are expected to gradually recover after gold prices fall.
Gold prices are currently near $4,000 an ounce, down more than 25% from their January highs. The conflict in the Middle East has boosted energy prices and inflation concerns. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in July once rose to 40%, and then dropped to 10%. If tightening expectations continue, gold prices may drop to $3,500; ANZ expects it to find support near $3,800 to $4,000 and lowers its year-end target to $4,600 and its target for the next 12 months to $5,400. ANZ believes that the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is still high. The weakening impact of tariffs, a cooling labor market and falling housing inflation all support interest rates remaining unchanged. If energy prices do not trigger a second round of inflation, the Fed may continue to tolerate this exogenous shock. Investment demand for gold has weakened significantly this year, with exchange-traded fund holdings decreasing by approximately 78 tons and speculative positions decreasing by nearly 200 tons. However, geopolitical risks, macro uncertainty, de-dollarization and high concentration of U.S. stocks still constitute mid- to long-term support. Demand for central bank gold purchases remains resilient, and ANZ expects official sector purchases to reach 900 to 950 tons in 2026. In terms of physical demand, China's gold imports in the first five months increased by 75% year-on-year to 691 tons, but the delivery volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 12% in the first half of the year; India's recent monthly imports have dropped to 16 to 30 tons, lower than the average level of 45 tons last year, and the price drop may promote inventory replenishment before the holidays. Silver will continue to fluctuate with gold in the short term, and may technically drop to $50 to $55 per ounce before stabilizing. Although photovoltaic silver demand is expected to decline by 19% to 151 million ounces in 2026, the expansion of demand for electric vehicles, charging facilities, AI and data centers is expected to drive industrial silver demand to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 5% until 2030. Goldman Sachs lowers global PC shipment forecast: 2026 may drop 14% AI PC growth bucks trend Goldman Sachs further lowered its forecast for the global personal computer market in its latest research report. It predicts that shipments from 2026 to 2028 will be 255 million, 243 million and 244 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, a decrease of 5% and the same level. This is a decrease of approximately 18 million, 25 million and 24 million units respectively from the previous forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that rising memory and CPU prices will push up overall machine costs and suppress demand, while the replacement cycle caused by the end of Windows 10 support has gradually flattened after its early release. Affected by market concerns about subsequent price increases and early stocking by manufacturers and channels, global PC shipments will still increase by 12% and 3% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, but are expected to decline by 15%, 19% and 22% respectively in the second to fourth quarters of 2026. Despite declining shipments, product upgrades and higher component prices will support average selling prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global average PC selling price will rise from US$933 in 2025 to US$1,025 in 2026, an increase of 10%; it will further rise to US$1,055 and US$1,077 in 2027 and 2028. Therefore, global PC revenue is expected to drop 5% to US$261.4 billion in 2026, drop 2% to US$255.9 billion in 2027, and resume growth by 3% to US$262.5 billion in 2028. Revenue performance will be significantly better than sales. AI PC is still the main structural growth point of the market. Goldman Sachs predicts that AI PC shipments will reach 150 million, 175 million and 199 million units from 2026 to 2028, an increase of 39%, 17% and 14% respectively, with penetration rates rising from 59% to 72% and 82%; revenue during the same period is expected to increase from US$168.8 billion to US$220.7 billion. The demand for edge AI computing, the continuous launch of new applications, and the low sensitivity of high-end users to price increases will drive AI PCs to outperform the overall market. Gaming PCs are also expected to drive product portfolio upgrades. Its shipments are expected to increase from 26 million units in 2026 to 28 million units in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4%; revenue will increase from US$46 billion to US$52 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7%, driven by graphics card upgrades, thin and light designs, AI functions and durability improvements. Societe Generale: Global refrigeration demand has entered a long-term expansion period, and sustainable refrigeration has become the new main line of climate adaptation.
Société Générale pointed out in its latest research report that with extreme high temperatures, urbanization, income growth and data center expansion, refrigeration is transforming from an optional consumption to improve comfort to a necessary investment in ensuring health, food and medicine cold chains, labor productivity and digital infrastructure, and has formed a climate adaptation investment theme that will last for decades. The current global average temperature is about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than before industrialization, and the temperature in land areas is about 1.6 degrees Celsius. Heat waves that occurred once in about a decade in the past may now occur every three to four years; if global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, the frequency may increase to once every two years. Heat has become the leading cause of climate-related deaths and may reduce labor productivity by an average of 10% globally. The stock of refrigeration equipment is already huge. There are approximately 2.2 billion household refrigerators and freezers worldwide, and approximately 1.3 billion residential air conditioners and air-conditioned vehicles. However, at least 1 billion people still lack access to safe and affordable refrigeration services. The International Energy Agency predicts that if policies and technology paths remain unchanged, global space cooling energy consumption may nearly triple by 2050, and the number of air conditioners in stock may increase from approximately 1.6 billion units to 5.6 billion units. The United Nations Environment Program predicts that global cooling capacity will increase from 22 terawatts in 2022 to 68 terawatts in 2050. Data centers have also become an important addition. Its power consumption in 2024 will be approximately 415 terawatt hours, accounting for 1.5% of global electricity consumption, and is expected to increase to 945 terawatt hours in 2030; cooling systems usually account for 20% to 50% of data center power consumption, and high-density AI racks will drive demand for liquid cooling, heat exchangers and intelligent temperature control. However, the traditional expansion model may bring higher power peaks and emissions. Global refrigeration-related emissions are already composed of energy consumption and refrigerant leakage. They will be approximately 4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022 and may rise to 7.2 billion tons in 2050. Societe Generale believes that investment opportunities should not be limited to air-conditioning manufacturers, but should cover building insulation, energy-saving equipment, compressors and control systems, data center liquid cooling, district cooling, cold chain, maintenance services and refrigerant recovery. Refrigerants with high global warming potential and fluorinated chemicals facing PFAS regulatory risks may become valuation and compliance risks. Goldman Sachs: Global nuclear power projects continue to advance, long-term uranium price rises to $94 Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest global reactor tracking report that nuclear power construction, life extension and small modular reactor (SMR) projects continue to advance in North America, Europe and Asia, and long-term fuel demand fundamentals remain strong, but the short-term performance of nuclear power stocks is under pressure. As of July 8, China had 39 reactors under construction, India and Russia had 8 and 7 reactors respectively. Since 2026, three reactors around the world have been connected to the grid for the first time, eight have started construction, and no projects have been permanently closed. China's Taipingling Unit 2 has been connected to the grid for the first time, and Changjiang 3 has achieved criticality for the first time; the U.S. Department of Energy plans to provide a loan of up to US$17.5 billion to support the long-term equipment procurement of up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. New York State has also launched a tender for at least 1 gigawatt of advanced nuclear power projects. The commercialization of SMR is accelerating simultaneously. Four microreactors in the United States have reached criticality under the Department of Energy's pilot program; a private financing plan in the United Kingdom plans to deploy 14 BWRX-300 units in three locations, with a total capacity of 4.2 GW, and aims to start commercial operation in 2034. Poland applied to support the construction of 14 units of the same model in three locations. In terms of the nuclear fuel supply chain, U.S. uranium production increased to 1.39 million pounds in 2025, a nine-year high; Urenco plans to add 2.1 million separation unit production capacity in New Mexico, increasing local enrichment capacity by nearly 50%. The spot uranium price remained near US$85 per pound at the end of June, and the long-term contract price rose from US$93 to US$94, indicating that utility companies' mid- to long-term procurement demand remains supportive. However, nuclear power stocks covered by Goldman Sachs have fallen 11% on average over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has gained 11% during the same period. Goldman Sachs lowered the target prices of Cameco, UEC, Oklo and NuScale, but continued to give Cameco and UEC a "buy" rating. It believed that the long-term growth logic of the industry has not changed, and the short-term focus remains on project implementation, approval progress, fuel security and financing capabilities. Deutsche Bank: Selling PayPal as a whole may not be the best way to spin off assets or create higher value
Deutsche Bank said in its latest research report that according to media reports, payment company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have jointly proposed to acquire all shares of PayPal at US$60.50 per share, corresponding to a valuation of more than US$53 billion. The offer represents a premium of approximately 28% to PayPal's closing price of $47.37 on July 14, and it is reported that it has received approximately $50 billion in committed financing. After the transaction is completed, Stripe and Advent will each hold half of PayPal's equity, and there are no plans to split the company's assets. PayPal has not yet responded to the offer. Deutsche Bank said that Stripe's participation in the overall acquisition was beyond market expectations, but PayPal's consumer payment assets can provide Stripe with an important strategic entrance. Especially for Venmo, Stripe may be better positioned than PayPal to drive monetization and revenue growth. However, PayPal's delay in responding may also indicate that management believes that it can create value higher than the current offer by spinning off and selling some assets, improving Venmo's fundamentals, or advancing the business independently. Deutsche Bank previously believed that PayPal was more likely to selectively sell assets than to sell the entire company. Although the company still faces problems such as poor execution and pressure on growth, this offer and large-scale financing arrangements show that strategic investors still recognize its payment scale, consumer network and multi-asset portfolio. PayPal's current valuation multiples are at multi-year lows, also boosting interest from potential buyers. Deutsche Bank believes that regardless of whether the deal is ultimately concluded, the relevant news indicates that the integration of the payment and financial technology industries will continue to accelerate. During the year, there have been many transactions in this field such as Global Payments' acquisition of Worldpay and FIS's acquisition of TSYS. If PayPal is sold, it may become a catalyst for a new round of mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank maintains a "hold" rating on PayPal with a target price of $45. Goldman Sachs: Morgan Stanley's second-quarter results exceeded expectations overall and became the biggest bright spot in stock trading Goldman Sachs said in its latest research report that Morgan Stanley's second-quarter 2026 performance was better than expected, with outstanding performance in stock trading, investment banking and wealth management, and the market is expected to respond positively. Morgan Stanley's quarterly earnings per share were US$3.46, higher than market expectations of US$2.94; excluding lower tax rates and provisions of US$65 million, core earnings per share were US$3.52. Core revenue was 9% higher than market expectations, core return on tangible common equity reached 27.1%, 445 basis points higher than expected; core efficiency ratio was 65.1%, about 295 basis points better than market expectations. Tangible book value per share increased 3% sequentially to $53.18. Capital markets business revenue was 17% higher than expected. Among them, stock trading revenue was 36% higher than expected, offsetting the impact of fixed income, foreign exchange and commodity trading revenue being 3% lower than expected. Investment banking revenue was 11% higher than expected, and equity underwriting, bond underwriting and merger advisory business were 22%, 8% and 3% higher respectively. Goldman Sachs believes the market will focus on whether record stock trading revenue can be sustained and whether the company will invest more capital to expand its trading business. Net new assets in wealth management reached US$148 billion, much higher than market expectations of US$82 billion, corresponding to an annualized growth of 8.1%; however, the net inflow of fee-based assets was only US$39 billion, with an annualized growth rate of 5.6%, which is at the lower edge of the company's long-term guidance range of 5% to 7%. Wealth management net interest income was 3% higher than expected, and the pre-tax profit margin was about 30.5%. Morgan Stanley repurchased US$1.5 billion in shares during the quarter, and its standardized common equity tier 1 capital adequacy ratio dropped 30.
Gold prices are currently near $4,000 an ounce, down more than 25% from their January highs. The conflict in the Middle East has boosted energy prices and inflation concerns. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in July once rose to 40%, and then dropped to 10%. If tightening expectations continue, gold prices may drop to $3,500; ANZ expects it to find support near $3,800 to $4,000 and lowers its year-end target to $4,600 and its target for the next 12 months to $5,400. ANZ believes that the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is still high. The weakening impact of tariffs, a cooling labor market and falling housing inflation all support interest rates remaining unchanged. If energy prices do not trigger a second round of inflation, the Fed may continue to tolerate this exogenous shock. Investment demand for gold has weakened significantly this year, with exchange-traded fund holdings decreasing by approximately 78 tons and speculative positions decreasing by nearly 200 tons. However, geopolitical risks, macro uncertainty, de-dollarization and high concentration of U.S. stocks still constitute mid- to long-term support. Demand for central bank gold purchases remains resilient, and ANZ expects official sector purchases to reach 900 to 950 tons in 2026. In terms of physical demand, China's gold imports in the first five months increased by 75% year-on-year to 691 tons, but the delivery volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 12% in the first half of the year; India's recent monthly imports have dropped to 16 to 30 tons, lower than the average level of 45 tons last year, and the price drop may promote inventory replenishment before the holidays. Silver will continue to fluctuate with gold in the short term, and may technically drop to $50 to $55 per ounce before stabilizing. Although photovoltaic silver demand is expected to decline by 19% to 151 million ounces in 2026, the expansion of demand for electric vehicles, charging facilities, AI and data centers is expected to drive industrial silver demand to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 5% until 2030. Goldman Sachs lowers global PC shipment forecast: 2026 may drop 14% AI PC growth bucks trend Goldman Sachs further lowered its forecast for the global personal computer market in its latest research report. It predicts that shipments from 2026 to 2028 will be 255 million, 243 million and 244 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, a decrease of 5% and the same level. This is a decrease of approximately 18 million, 25 million and 24 million units respectively from the previous forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that rising memory and CPU prices will push up overall machine costs and suppress demand, while the replacement cycle caused by the end of Windows 10 support has gradually flattened after its early release. Affected by market concerns about subsequent price increases and early stocking by manufacturers and channels, global PC shipments will still increase by 12% and 3% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, but are expected to decline by 15%, 19% and 22% respectively in the second to fourth quarters of 2026. Despite declining shipments, product upgrades and higher component prices will support average selling prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global average PC selling price will rise from US$933 in 2025 to US$1,025 in 2026, an increase of 10%; it will further rise to US$1,055 and US$1,077 in 2027 and 2028. Therefore, global PC revenue is expected to drop 5% to US$261.4 billion in 2026, drop 2% to US$255.9 billion in 2027, and resume growth by 3% to US$262.5 billion in 2028. Revenue performance will be significantly better than sales. AI PC is still the main structural growth point of the market. Goldman Sachs predicts that AI PC shipments will reach 150 million, 175 million and 199 million units from 2026 to 2028, an increase of 39%, 17% and 14% respectively, with penetration rates rising from 59% to 72% and 82%; revenue during the same period is expected to increase from US$168.8 billion to US$220.7 billion. The demand for edge AI computing, the continuous launch of new applications, and the low sensitivity of high-end users to price increases will drive AI PCs to outperform the overall market. Gaming PCs are also expected to drive product portfolio upgrades. Its shipments are expected to increase from 26 million units in 2026 to 28 million units in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4%; revenue will increase from US$46 billion to US$52 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7%, driven by graphics card upgrades, thin and light designs, AI functions and durability improvements. Societe Generale: Global refrigeration demand has entered a long-term expansion period, and sustainable refrigeration has become the new main line of climate adaptation.
Société Générale pointed out in its latest research report that with extreme high temperatures, urbanization, income growth and data center expansion, refrigeration is transforming from an optional consumption to improve comfort to a necessary investment in ensuring health, food and medicine cold chains, labor productivity and digital infrastructure, and has formed a climate adaptation investment theme that will last for decades. The current global average temperature is about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than before industrialization, and the temperature in land areas is about 1.6 degrees Celsius. Heat waves that occurred once in about a decade in the past may now occur every three to four years; if global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, the frequency may increase to once every two years. Heat has become the leading cause of climate-related deaths and may reduce labor productivity by an average of 10% globally. The stock of refrigeration equipment is already huge. There are approximately 2.2 billion household refrigerators and freezers worldwide, and approximately 1.3 billion residential air conditioners and air-conditioned vehicles. However, at least 1 billion people still lack access to safe and affordable refrigeration services. The International Energy Agency predicts that if policies and technology paths remain unchanged, global space cooling energy consumption may nearly triple by 2050, and the number of air conditioners in stock may increase from approximately 1.6 billion units to 5.6 billion units. The United Nations Environment Program predicts that global cooling capacity will increase from 22 terawatts in 2022 to 68 terawatts in 2050. Data centers have also become an important addition. Its power consumption in 2024 will be approximately 415 terawatt hours, accounting for 1.5% of global electricity consumption, and is expected to increase to 945 terawatt hours in 2030; cooling systems usually account for 20% to 50% of data center power consumption, and high-density AI racks will drive demand for liquid cooling, heat exchangers and intelligent temperature control. However, the traditional expansion model may bring higher power peaks and emissions. Global refrigeration-related emissions are already composed of energy consumption and refrigerant leakage. They will be approximately 4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022 and may rise to 7.2 billion tons in 2050. Societe Generale believes that investment opportunities should not be limited to air-conditioning manufacturers, but should cover building insulation, energy-saving equipment, compressors and control systems, data center liquid cooling, district cooling, cold chain, maintenance services and refrigerant recovery. Refrigerants with high global warming potential and fluorinated chemicals facing PFAS regulatory risks may become valuation and compliance risks. Goldman Sachs: Global nuclear power projects continue to advance, long-term uranium price rises to $94 Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest global reactor tracking report that nuclear power construction, life extension and small modular reactor (SMR) projects continue to advance in North America, Europe and Asia, and long-term fuel demand fundamentals remain strong, but the short-term performance of nuclear power stocks is under pressure. As of July 8, China had 39 reactors under construction, India and Russia had 8 and 7 reactors respectively. Since 2026, three reactors around the world have been connected to the grid for the first time, eight have started construction, and no projects have been permanently closed. China's Taipingling Unit 2 has been connected to the grid for the first time, and Changjiang 3 has achieved criticality for the first time; the U.S. Department of Energy plans to provide a loan of up to US$17.5 billion to support the long-term equipment procurement of up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. New York State has also launched a tender for at least 1 gigawatt of advanced nuclear power projects. The commercialization of SMR is accelerating simultaneously. Four microreactors in the United States have reached criticality under the Department of Energy's pilot program; a private financing plan in the United Kingdom plans to deploy 14 BWRX-300 units in three locations, with a total capacity of 4.2 GW, and aims to start commercial operation in 2034. Poland applied to support the construction of 14 units of the same model in three locations. In terms of the nuclear fuel supply chain, U.S. uranium production increased to 1.39 million pounds in 2025, a nine-year high; Urenco plans to add 2.1 million separation unit production capacity in New Mexico, increasing local enrichment capacity by nearly 50%. The spot uranium price remained near US$85 per pound at the end of June, and the long-term contract price rose from US$93 to US$94, indicating that utility companies' mid- to long-term procurement demand remains supportive. However, nuclear power stocks covered by Goldman Sachs have fallen 11% on average over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has gained 11% during the same period. Goldman Sachs lowered the target prices of Cameco, UEC, Oklo and NuScale, but continued to give Cameco and UEC a "buy" rating. It believed that the long-term growth logic of the industry has not changed, and the short-term focus remains on project implementation, approval progress, fuel security and financing capabilities. Deutsche Bank: Selling PayPal as a whole may not be the best way to spin off assets or create higher value
Deutsche Bank said in its latest research report that according to media reports, payment company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have jointly proposed to acquire all shares of PayPal at US$60.50 per share, corresponding to a valuation of more than US$53 billion. The offer represents a premium of approximately 28% to PayPal's closing price of $47.37 on July 14, and it is reported that it has received approximately $50 billion in committed financing. After the transaction is completed, Stripe and Advent will each hold half of PayPal's equity, and there are no plans to split the company's assets. PayPal has not yet responded to the offer. Deutsche Bank said that Stripe's participation in the overall acquisition was beyond market expectations, but PayPal's consumer payment assets can provide Stripe with an important strategic entrance. Especially for Venmo, Stripe may be better positioned than PayPal to drive monetization and revenue growth. However, PayPal's delay in responding may also indicate that management believes that it can create value higher than the current offer by spinning off and selling some assets, improving Venmo's fundamentals, or advancing the business independently. Deutsche Bank previously believed that PayPal was more likely to selectively sell assets than to sell the entire company. Although the company still faces problems such as poor execution and pressure on growth, this offer and large-scale financing arrangements show that strategic investors still recognize its payment scale, consumer network and multi-asset portfolio. PayPal's current valuation multiples are at multi-year lows, also boosting interest from potential buyers. Deutsche Bank believes that regardless of whether the deal is ultimately concluded, the relevant news indicates that the integration of the payment and financial technology industries will continue to accelerate. During the year, there have been many transactions in this field such as Global Payments' acquisition of Worldpay and FIS's acquisition of TSYS. If PayPal is sold, it may become a catalyst for a new round of mergers and acquisitions. Deutsche Bank maintains a "hold" rating on PayPal with a target price of $45. Goldman Sachs: Morgan Stanley's second-quarter results exceeded expectations overall and became the biggest bright spot in stock trading Goldman Sachs said in its latest research report that Morgan Stanley's second-quarter 2026 performance was better than expected, with outstanding performance in stock trading, investment banking and wealth management, and the market is expected to respond positively. Morgan Stanley's quarterly earnings per share were US$3.46, higher than market expectations of US$2.94; excluding lower tax rates and provisions of US$65 million, core earnings per share were US$3.52. Core revenue was 9% higher than market expectations, core return on tangible common equity reached 27.1%, 445 basis points higher than expected; core efficiency ratio was 65.1%, about 295 basis points better than market expectations. Tangible book value per share increased 3% sequentially to $53.18. Capital markets business revenue was 17% higher than expected. Among them, stock trading revenue was 36% higher than expected, offsetting the impact of fixed income, foreign exchange and commodity trading revenue being 3% lower than expected. Investment banking revenue was 11% higher than expected, and equity underwriting, bond underwriting and merger advisory business were 22%, 8% and 3% higher respectively. Goldman Sachs believes the market will focus on whether record stock trading revenue can be sustained and whether the company will invest more capital to expand its trading business. Net new assets in wealth management reached US$148 billion, much higher than market expectations of US$82 billion, corresponding to an annualized growth of 8.1%; however, the net inflow of fee-based assets was only US$39 billion, with an annualized growth rate of 5.6%, which is at the lower edge of the company's long-term guidance range of 5% to 7%. Wealth management net interest income was 3% higher than expected, and the pre-tax profit margin was about 30.5%. Morgan Stanley repurchased US$1.5 billion in shares during the quarter, and its standardized common equity tier 1 capital adequacy ratio dropped 30.