U.S. stock market pre-market: The three major stock index futures are mixed, Space X will launch the first Starship test flight after the IPO, and TSMC's performance exceeds expect

U.S. stock market pre-market: The three major stock index futures are mixed, Space X will launch the first Starship test flight after the IPO, and TSMC's performance exceeds expectations.

Before the market opened on Thursday, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and major European indexes generally fell. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.02%, Dow futures rose 0.16%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.32%. In terms of commodities, Brent crude oil rose 0.19% to US$85.11/barrel; WTI crude oil rose 0.4% to US$79.92/barrel.

Spot gold fell 0.43% to $4,042.95 an ounce. Spot silver fell 1.7% to $56.77. In terms of individual stocks, the pre-market trends of star technology stocks were divided. Micron Technology and TSMC fell by nearly 5%, Intel and AMD fell by more than 3%, Nvidia fell by nearly 2%, and Google and Microsoft rose by more than 1%.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose. Xpeng rose nearly 4%, Baidu rose more than 2%, Alibaba, Weilai, and JD.com rose more than 1%, Pinduoduo rose nearly 1%, UMC fell more than 8%, and TSMC fell nearly 5%. The storage concept weakened before the opening.

Western Digital fell by more than 8%, SanDisk fell by nearly 8%, SK Hynix fell by more than 7% before the opening, Seagate Technology fell by more than 6%, and Micron Technology fell by nearly 5%.

Bullish stock market investors have been intoxicated by the "Goldilocks" scenario, and risk appetite has been pushed to extremely high levels, making it increasingly difficult to judge where the market's next upward momentum will come from.

Richard Privorotsky, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group, said: "Whether the stock market can continue its rally ultimately depends on performance guidance and positioning levels; energy remains a key macro risk factor, but for now, the inflation environment is improving." Privorotsky pointed out that there is a high probability that this financial reporting season will deliver good results.

The banking industry has basically crossed the performance threshold, while ASML's financial report shows that demand for semiconductor capital expenditures remains healthy. "As with most AI-related stocks, the question is no longer limited to the data itself, but whether the data is bright enough relative to current positions," he added.

A Bank of America fund manager survey released this week showed that the proportion of cash holdings among professional investors has fallen to extremely low levels, while the bank's "bull and bear indicator" also released a warning signal.

In addition, data from Deutsche Bank shows that systemic strategies are currently extremely overweight, leaving little room for further incremental buying.

The positions of trend-following CTAs in stocks have been pushed to the upper edge of the historical range and are at the 72nd percentile; while the positions of volatility control funds are even more extreme and are already at the 91st percentile. Restarting the blockade on Iraq for the first time! U.S.

attacks Iran-linked tanker, escalating maritime confrontation The U.S. military opened fire on an oil tanker on Wednesday as it attempted to sail to Khark Island deep in the Persian Gulf, near Iran's key oil export terminal.

This is the first attack on a ship since the United States restarted its shipping blockade against Iran, marking a further escalation of the U.S.-Iran maritime confrontation. According to CCTV News and other media reports, on July 15, local time, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S.

military implemented a naval blockade against Iran, causing an empty oil tanker trying to sail to an Iranian port to lose its navigation ability. U.S. Central Command troops detected an oil tanker, the M/T Belma, heading to Khark Island via international waters. The merchant ship ignored multiple warnings when trying to violate the U.S. blockade order.

A US military aircraft fired a "Hellfire" missile at the ship, causing it to lose its navigation ability. Currently, the ship has stopped sailing to Iran.

The United States said that since it resumed its maritime blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas at 16:00 on July 14, Eastern Time, it had guided two merchant ships that cooperated with the requirements to change their routes and stopped one "disobedient" ship within the first 24 hours.

The US military said it will continue to maintain vigilance to ensure the implementation of blockade measures. Goldman Sachs lowers global PC shipment forecast: 2026 may drop 14% AI PC growth bucks trend Goldman Sachs further lowered its forecast for the global personal computer market in its latest research report.

It predicts that shipments from 2026 to 2028 will be 255 million, 243 million and 244 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, a decrease of 5% and the same level. This is a decrease of approximately 18 million, 25 million and 24 million units respectively from the previous forecast.

Goldman Sachs believes that rising memory and CPU prices will push up overall machine costs and suppress demand, while the replacement cycle caused by the end of Windows 10 support has gradually flattened after its early release.

Affected by market concerns about subsequent price increases and early stocking by manufacturers and channels, global PC shipments will still increase by 12% and 3% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, but are expected to decline by 15%, 19% and 22% respectively in the second to fourth quarters of 2026.

Despite declining shipments, product upgrades and higher component prices will support average selling prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global average PC selling price will rise from US$933 in 2025 to US$1,025 in 2026, an increase of 10%; it will further rise to US$1,055 and US$1,077 in 2027 and 2028.

Therefore, global PC revenue is expected to drop 5% to US$261.4 billion in 2026, drop 2% to US$255.9 billion in 2027, and resume growth by 3% to US$262.5 billion in 2028. Revenue performance will be significantly better than sales. AI PC is still the main structural growth point of the market.

Goldman Sachs predicts that AI PC shipments will reach 150 million, 175 million and 199 million units from 2026 to 2028, an increase of 39%, 17% and 14% respectively, with penetration rates rising from 59% to 72% and 82%; revenue during the same period is expected to increase from US$168.8 billion to US$220.7 billion.

The demand for edge AI computing, the continuous launch of new applications, and the low sensitivity of high-end users to price increases will drive AI PCs to outperform the overall market. Revealing Mythos is tantamount to handing over ballistic missiles?

JPMorgan Chase CEO makes shocking statement warning of risks On Wednesday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned at the Defense and Innovation Summit in Pennsylvania that the risks posed by Anthropic's Mythos artificial intelligence model were a "real issue." He even believes that opening the Mythos model to the public is tantamount to handing over ballistic missiles to the public.

Dimon expressed the "real problem" in May this year. The number of software vulnerabilities discovered by Mythos had reached tens of thousands at that time, and most of them had not been fixed. It was expected to take 6 to 12 months to fully fix.

Anthropic publicly disclosed the Mythos large model in April this year, and officially released Mythos 5 and Fable 5 on June 9 this year. Among them, Mythos 5 is a top-notch large model that can break through network security barriers; Fable 5 is a version with a network security protection lock and is currently open to the public.

In June of this year, the U.S. government asked Anthropic to restrict access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 to non-U.S. citizens due to national security concerns. After 18 days of security coordination and review, the U.S. Department of Commerce lifted restrictions on the model. The U.S. government is still paying close attention to this large model.

SpaceX launches first starship test flight after IPO, Musk's Mars plan faces critical test SpaceX will conduct its 13th test flight of the Starship rocket tonight. This is the space giant's first major test since its IPO in June. It is also a core part of Musk's plan to build a space data center, expand the Starlink network and manned the moon.

The launch is scheduled to take off from the Starbase base in southern Texas at 5:45 pm local time on Thursday. It will be the second flight of the latest iteration of the V3 rocket and will carry the upgraded Starlink satellite to perform a test mission.

Analysts generally believe that if the test flight is successful, it will be a key node for SpaceX to realize its investment logic and may pave the way for the next first flight into orbit. However, the market background faced by this test flight is quite complicated.

SpaceX's stock price has fallen by about one-third since its closing high on June 16, with its market value evaporating by more than $860 billion. It once fell below the IPO issue price on July 15. The results of the Starship test flight and the upcoming first quarterly report will become the two key catalysts that influence the direction of the stock price.

Eli Lilly acquires Atai Beckley for up to $3.8 billion, betting on new neuroscience treatments On July 16, it was reported that Eli Lilly announced that it would acquire Atai Beckley for up to US$3.8 billion, acquiring the latter’s core psychedelic drug asset BPL-003 for the treatment of refractory depression.

This is also Lilly's first large-scale deployment in the field of psychedelic drugs, further strengthening its neuroscience product pipeline.

According to the announcement, Lilly will acquire AtaiBeckley for US$6.75 per share in cash, a premium of approximately 26% to Wednesday's closing price, and will pay an additional up to US$2.50 per share upon reaching certain research and development milestones.

The blockbuster deal has a total value of up to $3.8 billion, including $2.8 billion in upfront cash and $1 billion in additional consideration based on future milestones. Stimulated by the news, Atai Beckley rose by more than 30% before the market opened, and the company's stock price has increased by nearly 100% in the past year.

This acquisition is also the latest move by Eli Lilly to strengthen its neuroscience layout in recent years. While its weight-loss drug and diabetes businesses have become Lilly's most important current growth engines, neuroscience is still seen as an important part of the company's long-term strategy.

This acquisition means that Eli Lilly has officially incorporated psychedelic therapy into its own research and development system. TSMC's profits soared by 77%, but its stock price plummeted. "Buy expectations, sell facts" is happening again! On July 16, TSMC handed over an almost impeccable quarterly report card.

Data shows that the company's second-quarter net profit increased by 77% year-on-year. Revenue, gross profit margin, operating profit margin, and third-quarter revenue guidance all exceeded market expectations.

AI demand continues to be strong, and the contribution of advanced processes has further improved, indicating that the global investment boom in AI computing power is still continuing. However, the outstanding performance did not lead to a rise in the stock price. After the financial report was released, TSMC's ADR fell nearly 4% before the market opened.

As of press time, TSMC's US stocks fell nearly 5% before the market opened. The market once again staged "buy expectations, sell facts" - after the stock price rose by about 77% in the past year, some investors chose to take profits after the good news materialized.

For the market, the focus is no longer just on whether the performance is impressive enough, but on whether the company can continue to deliver results that exceed expectations in the context of high valuations and high expectations. This is also a common test faced by leading AI companies today.

Ricky Ho, a fund manager at Four Capital in Singapore, said that the current market expectations for TSMC are already at "abnormally high levels" and that future stock price increases will increasingly rely on management to continue to exceed market expectations. (

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