China Macro Tracking: Service consumption leads expansion, green transformation continues to advance (HSBC)
HSBC’s macro tracking report focuses on consumption expansion (service consumption as the core), green transformation and policies in the second half of the year under the 15th Five-Year Plan.
HSBC’s macro tracking report focuses on consumption expansion (service consumption as the core), green transformation and policies in the second half of the year under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Specific goals such as total retail sales and the proportion of non-fossil energy are planned for 2030, but the report points out that there are short-term pressures on current retail sales. This means that the long-term direction is clear, but the short-term path still faces challenges. The market has a consensus on the long-term macro trend, but is more concerned about the short-term policy pace and implementation effects. The Politburo meeting will be a key node. It is expected to focus on fiscal implementation and maintain targeted easing of monetary policy. One-sentence conclusion: The 15th Five-Year Plan depicts a long-term blueprint of "consumption + green" for China's economy, but the market's short-term focus is whether the July Politburo meeting can launch substantive measures to boost domestic demand. Good/bad: long-term good for service consumption, green energy and computing infrastructure; short-term neutral impact on traditional consumption sectors that rely on strong stimulus, need to wait for details. The market recognizes the long-term direction, but is more concerned about the results of the short-term policy game. Catalysts: 1) The Politburo meeting in July set the tone for consumption and fiscal policies; 2) The further implementation of policies related to green transformation (such as new energy and carbon markets).