Things are not going well! Gold falls below 4000, Nasdaq falls to key support
Written by: Jerry Chen, Senior Analyst of GAIN Capital Group The conflict between the United States and Iran has been going on for a week, and neither side seems to have any intention of backing down until they gain the initiative in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, but still remained near US$80. Not only the Strait of Hormuz, Iran also threatens to block the Red Sea through the Houthi armed forces, so if the situation escalates, oil prices may rise further. The three major U.S. indexes collectively ended lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%. In addition to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the collective correction of global chip stocks offset the positive second-quarter financial reports and dragged down market sentiment. The chart below shows that since the historical high in June, the semiconductor sector (SOX) has retraced 20%, and the memory chip (DRAM) has plummeted 35%. On the one hand, it is driven by profit-taking sentiment. On the other hand, the IPO of Changxin Technology, China's leading DRAM memory chip company and the world's fourth largest market share, may have an impact on the revenue of the traditional three giants (Micron, Samsung, Hynix), and even completely rewrite the global storage pattern. As the weight of the semiconductor sector in U.S. stocks is increasing day by day, its impact on the three major indexes, especially the Nasdaq Composite Index, has become increasingly obvious. As shown in the figure, the Nasdaq 100 index has shown signs of falling below the lower edge support of the consolidation pattern. In the short term, it may test the previous low areas such as 28730 and 28400, which will become the last position of the bulls. The oversold indicator is expected to trigger a short-term stop, but the macro environment currently cannot provide support for technology stocks. Gold is currently in a similar situation, that is, the decline has stopped slightly below but there is greater and continuing pressure above. As shown in the figure, It fell 2% overnight and fell below the $4,000 mark. The U.S. dollar index fell to a one-month low this week due to lower-than-expected CPI and PPI data, which also failed to boost gold trends. As shown in the figure, focus on the key support of the 3960/80 area during the day. The long and short parties have had many confrontations at this position but there is no winner for the time being. Once it falls, it may accelerate to 3900/20. If this week's weekly close forms a bearish continuation pattern, gold prices will face greater downward pressure in the future. In the direction of the rebound, shorting on the rebound will still be the main option before it effectively breaks through the moving average and is suppressed by the trend line. Relatively speaking, after falling below $56 to form a new low The trend is more pessimistic. Pay attention to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on Friday, as well as the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) held in Shanghai. Open a futures account on Sina's cooperative platform, safe, fast and guaranteed