Supply and demand data in June verify the resilience of metal prices, and positive profit forecasts for copper, aluminum, and lithium strengthen confidence, and Zijin is the first
J.P.
J.P. Morgan based on China NBS data analysis in June, copper supply is tight, aluminum exports exceed expectations, lithium prices have reflected the positive supply, while coal and steel performance is weak. Recently, copper, gold, aluminum, and lithium companies have released positive profit forecasts for the first half of the year. For example, Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to its parent company is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year, and Chalco's Aluminum Corporation of China is expected to increase by 75% year-on-year, strengthening the sector's profit prospects. The report maintains Zijin Mining as the first choice in the copper and gold sector, and is optimistic about Chalco and China Hongqiao. The market has expected high metal prices, but the strength of corporate profit forecasts (especially Zijin and Chinalco) may exceed the conservative estimates of some investors. One-sentence conclusion: June data confirms the high profitability of the non-ferrous metal sector, and the positive corporate profit forecast further strengthens confidence. Zijin Mining's leading position and valuation advantage make it the preferred target. Positive/negative: Positive for Zijin Mining (601899.SH/2899.HK), Chalco (601600.SH/2600.HK), China Hongqiao (1378.HK), and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ/1772.HK). The market's optimism for the non-ferrous sector has already been reflected, but the higher-than-expected profit forecast may lead to further valuation restoration. Catalysts: 1) Official financial reports of each company for 2Q26 to verify the degree of fulfillment of profit forecasts; 2) Spot price trends of copper, aluminum, and lithium.