2Q26 chemical industry performance preview: overall stable, optimistic about long AkzoNobel, wary of Solvay (Bernstein)
The Bernstein report shows that the overall 2Q26 performance expectations of chemical companies are stable, and only U.S.
The Bernstein report shows that the overall 2Q26 performance expectations of chemical companies are stable, and only U.S. industrial gas companies are expected to slightly increase their guidance. The report strongly highlights going long on AkzoNobel, believing that the market’s expectations of lowering its full-year EBITDA guidance are too pessimistic. On the contrary, the view on Solvay is biased to the negative, believing that its growth expectations are slightly higher than fundamentals, and any data that is worse than expected may cause concerns about whether the guidance can be achieved. The market's overall expectations for the chemical sector tend to be conservative, but Bernstein believes that AkzoNobel has the best risk-return ratio, while Solvay's risks are underestimated. One-sentence conclusion: The chemical sector is internally divided. AkzoNobel is currently the best long target under the market's "excessive pessimism", while Solvay's "growth story" faces the risk of continued falsification. Positive/negative: Positive for AkzoNobel. Negative for Solvay. The market's pessimistic expectations for AkzoNobel may be overdone, while the optimistic expectations for Solvay may not materialize. Catalysts: 1) AkzoNobel’s 2Q26 financial report, whether it is really as bad as the market fears; 2) Solvay’s 2Q26 financial report, confirming whether its growth rate can meet expectations.