ESS battery shipments exceeded 100GWh in June, H1 +98% year-on-year, full-year forecast is stable, optimistic about CATL and BYD (J.P. Morgan)
The J.P.
The J.P. Morgan report pointed out that global ESS battery shipments exceeded 100GWh in June, a year-on-year increase of 66%, and H1 cumulative growth was 98% year-on-year, and is expected to reach the full-year forecast of 1,100GWh. China's domestic demand is the main growth engine, and overseas markets (except the United States) have grown by more than 130%. Despite the recent correction in the ESS sector, J.P. Morgan believes that there are layout opportunities and highlights CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ/1211.HK), and Sungrow (300274.SZ). The market has reached consensus on the high growth of energy storage, but the recent sector correction may be due to concerns about the sustainability of growth. The report believes that this concern is excessive. One-sentence conclusion: ESS battery shipment data once again confirms the industry's super boom cycle. The recent correction is a healthy technical adjustment and provides a good opportunity for leading positions. Positive/negative: Positive for CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ/1211.HK), Sungrow (300274.SZ), and Deye Technology (605117.SH). The market has partially responded to the high growth expectations of the energy storage sector, but the better-than-expected performance of June data and strong guidance for the full year may not yet be fully reflected in the current stock price. Catalysts: 1) Monthly ESS battery shipment data in the second half of the year, verifying the progress of achieving the 1,100GWh target for the year; 2) Bidding status of large-scale energy storage projects in Europe and the United States. China Bond Analysis Quarterly Report: Provides comprehensive market structure and credit performance data (J.P. Morgan) This report released by J.P. Morgan is a comprehensive data report on China's domestic bond market, covering bond yields, market structure, issuance and maturity, credit performance, default records, etc. The report shows the market operation status through a large number of charts and rolling 12-month default details (involving Vanke, Country Garden, Times China, etc.). The report itself is a data document and does not contain specific trading views. Catalyst: Pay attention to the rolling 12-month default record listed in the report and observe the subsequent evolution of default risks in real estate and other industries.